Betfair claim that punters are 40% better off with Betfair SP.
This figure is 'an average, based on £10 bet at Betfair SP vs Industry SP on every winner since the launch of Betfair SP. To be as fair as possible, we have made a maximum deduction of 5% to the Betfair SP winnings.' (From https://promotions.betfair.com/race-meeting).
That sounds impressive.
Is Betfair SP really that much better than industry SP (in which case it's amazing that anyone bothers with the industry SP any more)? Or is this a case of 'lies, damn lies and statistics'?
Jeff
Betfair SP claim
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oddstrader
- Posts: 344
- Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:55 pm
not if you remove the long priced winners , if the sample was taken for winners under 5/1 it would be a different story, but i guess what they are saying is correct.
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Green Park
- Posts: 24
- Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 7:31 pm
If you look at some of the books they claim to have achieved they have missed off bigger prices, after a rule four they were caught adjusting the price of the RF after the winner was known. I don't think they do that now but it's all a bit fishy. The general claim that they are better than industry is probably true but some of the detail is a bit grey.
I'm sure Peter had some stats on this on one of his courses. I seem to remember that the closer to 1.01 you get the less the advantage.
I stand to be corrected.
Have a look at the Irish races. Not very many sp returned over 100/1 but most are 1000 at sp. Many 20/1 shots go off at over 500. bearing in mind that BF is an efficient market it shows how much the robbing bookies make.
I stand to be corrected.
Have a look at the Irish races. Not very many sp returned over 100/1 but most are 1000 at sp. Many 20/1 shots go off at over 500. bearing in mind that BF is an efficient market it shows how much the robbing bookies make.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Don't forget you are not comparing like with like.
The bookmakers SP will factor in Each Way betting. The Betfair SP is win only that you are comparing.
If you had £10 on each of those winners and nothing else you would also be paying Premium Charge which they don't account for.
Premium Charge really should be factored in imo but as ever when I argued this I was meet with the usual wall of disagreement,
The bookmakers SP will factor in Each Way betting. The Betfair SP is win only that you are comparing.
If you had £10 on each of those winners and nothing else you would also be paying Premium Charge which they don't account for.
Premium Charge really should be factored in imo but as ever when I argued this I was meet with the usual wall of disagreement,