If the game is drawn at 75 minutes, does the market usually take into account the fact that about a quarter of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes (according to http://www.soccerstats.com/timing.asp?league=england)?
Or would it assume that goals are evenly distributed throughout the match?
Jeff
Goal times
Jeff,
I think the last 15 mins also includes extra time...
If you watch the price of the draw just as they announce how much extrat time is to be played, if there is a few minutes the price usually reacts..maybe there is an edge there?!
regards
Peter
I think the last 15 mins also includes extra time...
If you watch the price of the draw just as they announce how much extrat time is to be played, if there is a few minutes the price usually reacts..maybe there is an edge there?!
regards
Peter
The flaw of averages, don't believe all statistics you see.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DdDhEynRFY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DdDhEynRFY
Thanks Peter - that's interesting.
In your video, you refer to mispricings in the market when the referee says he'll he adding 3 minutes of extra time, but actually gives 6.
Does the market assume at the end of the 3 minutes that the match is over, and give the result as it stands odds of 1.01, when in fact the chances of the result changing are higher than that?
If so, how can you tell whether the referee is going to add extra time to extra time? For example, if there's an injury in 'normal' extra time, isn't it possible that the referee will just think 'I said 3 minutes of extra time, so three minutes is all they're getting!'.
Jeff
In your video, you refer to mispricings in the market when the referee says he'll he adding 3 minutes of extra time, but actually gives 6.
Does the market assume at the end of the 3 minutes that the match is over, and give the result as it stands odds of 1.01, when in fact the chances of the result changing are higher than that?
If so, how can you tell whether the referee is going to add extra time to extra time? For example, if there's an injury in 'normal' extra time, isn't it possible that the referee will just think 'I said 3 minutes of extra time, so three minutes is all they're getting!'.
Jeff
Euler wrote:The flaw of averages, don't believe all statistics you see.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DdDhEynRFY
One thing I've noticed is that the Betfair football odds don't increase or decrease at an even rate throughout the match. Given the even goal distribution, you would presumably expect the rate to be constant, which makes me wonder if the market is irrational.
For example, in tonight's Stoke vs West Brom (attached), the implied odds of a draw increase from 29% to 33% (a 14% increase) between minutes 10 and 20, but they go from 60% to 74% between minutes 70 and 80 (a 23% increase).
You wrote the other day that people expect what's happened in the past to continue to happen. I wonder whether the market incorrectly assumes that if it's late in the game and there still have been no goals, then that's a reflection of the character of the game, eg both sides happy for the draw, no cutting edge upfront, etc, when in fact the teams may have just been unlukcy not to score.
What do you think?
Jeff
For example, in tonight's Stoke vs West Brom (attached), the implied odds of a draw increase from 29% to 33% (a 14% increase) between minutes 10 and 20, but they go from 60% to 74% between minutes 70 and 80 (a 23% increase).
You wrote the other day that people expect what's happened in the past to continue to happen. I wonder whether the market incorrectly assumes that if it's late in the game and there still have been no goals, then that's a reflection of the character of the game, eg both sides happy for the draw, no cutting edge upfront, etc, when in fact the teams may have just been unlukcy not to score.
What do you think?
Jeff
Euler wrote:Goals are, generally, equally distributed across a match.
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