I think this is one of the weakest Gold Cups we have seen for many a year but it doesn't make it any easier to decipher; or does it
Last year I said Imperial Commander was the horse to be with and thankfully he duly obliged. This year I think he holds most, if not all of the aces and he is a worthy favourite. He handles both the going and the course and thankfully he comes to this race fresh. I was shocked when I read that connections were insistent on his participation in the King George but I was also pleased because he would have been a definite lay. This is a big long striding horse that is best fresh. He also loves a galloping track that turns left handed. He has never produced any form of note on right handed courses especially tight ones like Kempton. This was also proven when they sent him to Aintree last year - I know you are screaming that Aintree is left handed but it is actually a tight course and Imperial Commander was not fresh.
The horse sustained a cut at Haydock so he did not run in the King George. This could be a blessing in disguise because he now comes here fresh as a daisy ready to charge up the Cheltenham hill. I think he is the likely winner barring accidents or incidents.
The old guard of Kauto Star and Denman will remain the favourites of many but as I mentioned last year, I think we have seen the best of them. Kauto Star was a great horse and it may be a long time before we see the likes of him again. I know he bled in the King George but he not produced anything of note to suggest he is near his peak. I would be more than happy to see him reproduce his best and storm home in front but my head has to rule my heart and I just cannot see him doing it.
Denman is slightly different in that he has not run since his heroic performance in the Hennessey Gold Cup. He has apparently had a wind operation since then so perhaps he had a problem at the end of that marathon effort. He has a fibrillating heart for some time and he seems to be over that these days. However, that puts a lot of ifs and buts into his form and so you have to take a lot on trust if you want to see him as the winner. He jumps and gallops but can he perform again at his beloved Cheltenham? Personally I think he can run into a place at best but am happy for him to prove me wrong. I backed this horse many years ago for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and it was at 8/1 ante post and he finished 2nd at very short odds on the day.
Neptune Collonges cannot win; he is not up to Gold Cup standard. This also applies to What a Friend, Carruthers, China Rock and Weird Al. Any of these would be happy if they could run into a place.
There is a lot of interest in Midnight Chase but this horse has to improve so much I just cannot see how it is possible. Last time out he won a close race from a horse rated 120
That is nowhere near the standard required to win a Gold Cup so unless connections have something large in reserve I cannot see this horse doing a Cool Ground. I don’t think this horse would win if he had a fence head start – watch him lead from start to finish now!!!There are a few horses that have a squeak if everything goes to plan. They are more likely to make the places if I am honest but in horse racing you can never be sure.
Kempes is an ex flat horse, a decent one at that. He has been a bit timid at his fences and this has let him down many times. Finally he seems to be showing some of his talent and he won the Irish Hennessey putting up a decent performance in the process. My concern is a simple one; can he handle the breakneck hustle bustle of a Gold Cup? If he does then he may run into a place and if there is carnage at the last two fences he may get lucky.
Pandorama won the Lexus last time out but quite simply this horse needs someone to perform a rain dance. Unless the ground turns soft then I cannot see this horse having a chance. He is clearly smart but on the quicker ground I cannot see him having to speed to be competitive.
Tidal Bay is one of those quirky horses who could actually spring a shock. Despite looking like a rocking horse at times with his head up in the air and that huge sheepskin noseband he is a fast horse that has a lot of talent. He has put up some amazing times on the clock but clearly he has his own ideas about racing. He chased home Imperial Commander at Haydock and whilst that winner was heavily eased it was still a decent performance. Basically if this horse consents to put his best foot forward he could sneak up and catch the others napping. Do not be surprised to see this horse dropped out the back and appear to have no chance. He may provide a chance to back him at huge odds in running and IF (I repeat IF) he does decide today is a going day his odds should contract if he comes with a late charge. He could win and he could be pulled up – he’s that tricky!!
Last but by no means least is Long Run, the new kid on the block. I have seen this horse in the flesh at Cheltenham and he is an impressive specimen. However I have my reservations about his ability to handle the undulations of Cheltenham and to see out the full Gold Cup trip. He is still a relatively young horse so perhaps that is the excuse we could use for his two failures at Cheltenham. We would therefore have to hope that an extra year has seen him strengthen sufficient to be effective in the Gold Cup. This horse has not been over raced by connections and he does seem to be best fresh. It is also my personal opinion that this horse perhaps does not stand too much racing and he needs to be tuned to perfection to get the best out of him on the day. I have looked at the videos of his last two runs at Cheltenham and in both of them he tired markedly coming up the hill. In the King George they ran a fast race but he was able to be in the front three and jump from fence to fence. Kempton is a flat course that does not put an emphasis on stamina so it suits a speedy type like Long Run. Today at Cheltenham it will be a different story as he will have to handle the undulation, the hustle and bustle at the front and the finishing hill. They may choose to settle him off the pace but this would be against his natural style and so he would then have to battle past horses and make a sustained effort up the hill. I just feel the combination of a fast run race, front runners, the extra distance, the undulations and the finishing hill will not suit this horse and can see him fading out of it when push comes to shove. As always, I am happy to be proved wrong and have no dislike of Long Run or any horse in the race.
I have placed an each way bet on Imperial Commander with the view it is an each bet to nothing. I cannot see him out of the places so I make profit if he places and more profit if he wins.
Good luck to all of you today with whatever you do.