Why do prices drop on Favorites and Over close to Kickoff?

[Iron]

An interesting article:

http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/why-d ... to-kickoff

Do you guys find that odds on favourites in football tend to shorten prior to the off?

Jeff

[Euler]

I wouldn't particular agree, all the research I have done indicates there is no predominant regular trend. If you look at less liquid markets the price tends to drift, this is because the booki % value is high and this tends to tighten before the off. There are short prices that shorten because of the bandwagon effect, but over all there is no specific trend in place IMHO. Maybe I can look at it again to see if that has changed.

[CaerMyrddin]

I don't agree too.

They can short, drift or range, like in horses.

Paying atention to the starting elevens can give you important clues on the what is likely to happen and sometimes can throw huge opportunities, close to the off.

[Fidib665]

Haven't looked at it in a statistically valid sense, but I have an underdog backing strategy and it seems to perform better the closer I am to the game start - so seems that the quotes for the underdog is rising close to the start, and correspondingly that would mean that the fav quote is dropping. So the hypothesis makes all the sense to me.
Cheers, F

[Euler]

If you are using level stakes as the book % contracts before the off the underdog will nearly always drift and offer better value at level stakes.

[freddy]

Don't really agree with that article, the late money is always going to change things, but it certainly goes both ways .

[petardo]

No true at all.There is too much to consider trading pre-KO in footbal.You have to watch which money and where they come from. Yesterday for example Inter Milan over 2.5 came before ko in 1.39 from 1.5. I turn money fast as I can 1.40 and 1.41 ended finally in 1.43. The true odds was 1.65. Match finisched 1:0. There was Porto vs Academica traded in 1.19 and 1.20.Big resistance in 1.19 and the odds was going up after start fast.There are the peopele who make lots of money punting in play on goals ,but they waiting on certain time when the goal is expected to get the big odds. There are traders as well who trade the goals under the statistic to make nice profit.They have lot`s money.If the goal is expected early the odds will go down on over 2.5 goals for example.

[Fugazi]

I wouldn't particular agree, all the research I have done indicates there is no predominant regular trend. If you look at less liquid markets the price tends to drift, this is because the booki % value is high and this tends to tighten before the off. There are short prices that shorten because of the bandwagon effect, but over all there is no specific trend in place IMHO. Maybe I can look at it again to see if that has changed.

Do you think people greening up in the dying seconds creates favourable backing/laying situations?(More so racing than football)

Something ive been thinking about lately stick a bet on the ladder + and - x ticks 20 seconds before the off