It occured to me that if you are trading these markets, particularly the correct score market, then if a goal goes in whilst you are exposed then you lose your whole stake.
So i was wondering just who is scalping these markets and why? I watch some of the televised games and I can see 4 figure stakes being matched back and forth.
I even watched as a goal went in and thousands got hoovered up from those who wanted to back that score at that time.
I just wonder who is actually trading these markets, is it humans? a robot? betfair themselves?
As i cant see it being a good market to trade due to the sudden death aspect of it.
Who is trading big money on the CS and goals markets?
The correct score market of a football match is my favourite and most profitable avenue to trade.
If you can learn to understand how football matches tend to flow, then you can take calculated risks for long-term profits.
For instance, when a relatively poor takes a surprise 1-0 lead against a relatively strong team, they tend to protect their lead - this is particularly true when the underdogs are playing away from home.
With this knowledge, it's possible to take a calculated risk that if another goal is scored, it will be an equaliser by the home team.
In this position, I would ordinarily trade the 1-1 scoreline. Depending on how many minutes are left in the match, you can expect the odds to steam in which case I would back and then lay. (Note: if it's late in the match, you can expect the 1-1 odds to drift).
What happens if the favourites score an equaliser, depends on how long is left in the match. Sometimes the odds will steam further, sometimes they will drift slightly. Normally, the price on the 1-1 post-suspension will still be lower than it was at 1-0 (so can still trade out for a profit).
Of course, it can go wrong - it's possible that the underdogs can score a second goal. But it's unlikely when you understand football and make trades accordingly. Every trade has it's risks, though.
(For what it's worth, it also helps to understand diffierent team's tactics. For instance, Blackpool could take the lead against United, but I'd be cautious to trade the 1-1 because, unlike most relegation contenders, Blackpool continue to attack rather than defend their leads.)
Hope this helps.
- Josh.
If you can learn to understand how football matches tend to flow, then you can take calculated risks for long-term profits.
For instance, when a relatively poor takes a surprise 1-0 lead against a relatively strong team, they tend to protect their lead - this is particularly true when the underdogs are playing away from home.
With this knowledge, it's possible to take a calculated risk that if another goal is scored, it will be an equaliser by the home team.
In this position, I would ordinarily trade the 1-1 scoreline. Depending on how many minutes are left in the match, you can expect the odds to steam in which case I would back and then lay. (Note: if it's late in the match, you can expect the 1-1 odds to drift).
What happens if the favourites score an equaliser, depends on how long is left in the match. Sometimes the odds will steam further, sometimes they will drift slightly. Normally, the price on the 1-1 post-suspension will still be lower than it was at 1-0 (so can still trade out for a profit).
Of course, it can go wrong - it's possible that the underdogs can score a second goal. But it's unlikely when you understand football and make trades accordingly. Every trade has it's risks, though.
(For what it's worth, it also helps to understand diffierent team's tactics. For instance, Blackpool could take the lead against United, but I'd be cautious to trade the 1-1 because, unlike most relegation contenders, Blackpool continue to attack rather than defend their leads.)
Hope this helps.
- Josh.
Very interesting Josh.
That would probably be a good way to trade that market.You could always scratch your position if the underdog continues to attack.
Is that the main way you would trade the CS market?
I am just wondering who is scalping the current score as once a goal goes in you could be dead!
That would probably be a good way to trade that market.You could always scratch your position if the underdog continues to attack.
Is that the main way you would trade the CS market?
I am just wondering who is scalping the current score as once a goal goes in you could be dead!
It's not the main way I trade the market, it's one of several strategies I use.Very interesting Josh.
That would probably be a good way to trade that market.You could always scratch your position if the underdog continues to attack.
Is that the main way you would trade the CS market?
I am just wondering who is scalping the current score as once a goal goes in you could be dead!
I wouldn't recommend scalping the CS market unless you're watching the match live.
There are phases during some football matches where a goal seems highly unlikely and, if you're watching a match live, you can spot these opportunities.
For instance, have you ever watched a football match where goalmouth action was non-existent for extended periods?
This can happen at the beginning of certain games where both teams are 'feeling each other out'. Makes for a good scalping opportunity.
To give you another instance, sometimes you get a scenario where both teams are keen for the half-time whistle to blow and play tentatively in the last two or three minutes of a half. Again, this makes for a good scalping opportunity.
Other times you get a scenario where one team are deliberately keeping possession of the football. If Chelsea take a 2-goal lead, for instance, as a tactic to defend their lead, they have a tendency to keep possession of the ball in the defensive and middle thirds of the pitch. Again, this makes for a good scalping opportunity (remember Chelsea's last game?).
But again, I would only recommend scalping if you are watching the match live.
- Josh.
You're right. You have expose yourself to a heavy loss if the trade goes against you, but there are ways to assess that risk.LeTiss 4pm wrote:It's a valid point
There's some serious money traded 'in play' on the current score, but it only takes a second to get a goal, so you're potentially exposing yourself to a heavy loss.
I always tend to lay 'in play'
Take my previous example where the underdog took a 1-0 lead, for instance...
As a trader looking to trade the 1-1, I'd look at the 'next goal' market to give me an indication of my expected ROI for the trade.
If I can see the favourite is at odds of 1.45 to score the next goal, and the odds on the score remaining 1-0 are 8.00, then I know there is only an 18.5% liklihood the underdog will score to make it 2-0.
The shorter the duration of the 1-1 trade, the smaller that 18.5% risk becomes...
It's then a case of looking at the potential upside and making a decision.
With practice I have found this becomes intuitive.
Do I make occassional losses? Yes...
... but in the long-term there is good money to be made from trading football matches.
Hope this helps,
- Josh.
I appreciate your responses Josh. Its a type of trading I havent thought much about.
I know what you mean about games not seeming likely to have a goal but I just think with my luck you will get one out of the blue and my stake will be gone. How many times would you enter the market during a game? Just one big trade or a few scalps?
I know what you mean about games not seeming likely to have a goal but I just think with my luck you will get one out of the blue and my stake will be gone. How many times would you enter the market during a game? Just one big trade or a few scalps?
Hi Josh
To clarify, are you relying on the market erring in its estimation of the chances of particular outcomes happening?
If so, how do you reconcile your approach with the fact that Betfair prices are, on the whole, extremely accurate? I'm not saying your approach is flawed, btw - you seem to know your stuff - I'm just curious...
Jeff
To clarify, are you relying on the market erring in its estimation of the chances of particular outcomes happening?
If so, how do you reconcile your approach with the fact that Betfair prices are, on the whole, extremely accurate? I'm not saying your approach is flawed, btw - you seem to know your stuff - I'm just curious...
Jeff
How many times I enter the market during a game depends...Human123 wrote:I appreciate your responses Josh. Its a type of trading I havent thought much about.
I know what you mean about games not seeming likely to have a goal but I just think with my luck you will get one out of the blue and my stake will be gone. How many times would you enter the market during a game? Just one big trade or a few scalps?
On a weekend, I trade dozens of games with my primary strategy - this involves making either one or two bets before kick-off and then closing out that trade somewhere between 10-30 minutes (the timelength depends on if early goals are scored and on how aggressive I decide to be with the trade). In this case, I make one large trade.
For the majority of the games, that will be my only trade of the match.
If I'm watching a game live, or I see that appealing trade opportunities occur (such as the aforementioned situation where the underdog takes a surprise lead), then I tend to enter a second trade into a match.
As for the scalping, I'll generally do it once or twice. It really depends on the circumstances, though.
Also, I don't just enter my scalps 'willy nilly'. I try and enter the trade just before I think the odds are going to drift/steam. This comes down to part WOM, part timing (How long ago was the last change in price? Are we due another shift?), part instinct... And it's always best to ensure the ball is in a non-threatening area of the pitch (a player receiving medical attention is always a useful time gobbler-upper).
Hope this helps,
- Josh.
Yes, sometimes I rely on the market to give me an indication of probabilities.Ferru123 wrote:Hi Josh
To clarify, are you relying on the market erring in its estimation of the chances of particular outcomes happening?
If so, how do you reconcile your approach with the fact that Betfair prices are, on the whole, extremely accurate? I'm not saying your approach is flawed, btw - you seem to know your stuff - I'm just curious...
Jeff
That said, I believe they are only an indication of the true probabilities.
In-play, I think the football markets become more inefficient, which is why it's possible to make consistent profits.
The efficiency of Betfair markets is an interesting concept to me...
My understanding is that, if the Betfair markets were so efficient, backers and layers should be breaking even. However, that obviously does not happen...
I know people who lay horses on Betfair and generate long-term profits. Likewise, I know someone who bets on the overs/unders football markets very successfully.
I don't doubt that the Betfair markets are somewhat close to being efficient, but clearly they're not perfect. And, in play, I think the inefficiencies get magnified.
But yeh, to answer your question, I do sometimes use the market to give me an indication of various probabilities.
- Josh.
Hi Josh
You might be interested in this page, which shows that, on the whole, Betfair is extremely efficient:
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets
However, I think that markets do become inefficient when crowd psychology sets in, causing trends to self-perpetuate and the market to over-react to news. And the success of traders on this forum is evidence of market inefficiency, given that it is impossible to profit from trading a completely efficient market, except by random chance, as you have no edge.
Jeff
You might be interested in this page, which shows that, on the whole, Betfair is extremely efficient:
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets
However, I think that markets do become inefficient when crowd psychology sets in, causing trends to self-perpetuate and the market to over-react to news. And the success of traders on this forum is evidence of market inefficiency, given that it is impossible to profit from trading a completely efficient market, except by random chance, as you have no edge.
Jeff
Joshy wrote:
My understanding is that, if the Betfair markets were so efficient, backers and layers should be breaking even. However, that obviously does not happen...
I know people who lay horses on Betfair and generate long-term profits. Likewise, I know someone who bets on the overs/unders football markets very successfully.
hey josh,
Ferru is correct the markets are extremely efficient. If you were to back or lay every single outcome you would break even in the long run.
The advantage that we have is that we can pick and choose our selections. So those who make the best decisions will be the ones who profit in the long run.
You could argue this is finding "value" but you could also argue its just being good at predicting.
Anyway, your strategies sound good and have given me new ideas for trading so i thank you for that.
I am obviously not asking for your actual strategy but from what you said i assume your main strategy depends on time decay? is this on the cs market or the 2.5 market?
Ferru is correct the markets are extremely efficient. If you were to back or lay every single outcome you would break even in the long run.
The advantage that we have is that we can pick and choose our selections. So those who make the best decisions will be the ones who profit in the long run.
You could argue this is finding "value" but you could also argue its just being good at predicting.
Anyway, your strategies sound good and have given me new ideas for trading so i thank you for that.
I am obviously not asking for your actual strategy but from what you said i assume your main strategy depends on time decay? is this on the cs market or the 2.5 market?
On a pedantic note, you wouldn't - you'd just be lining Betfair's pockets, as your bank would slowly diminish due to the commission. 
Jeff
Jeff
Human123 wrote: Ferru is correct the markets are extremely efficient. If you were to back or lay every single outcome you would break even in the long run.