The Derby 2011

[JollyGreen]

The Derby is a tricky race this year, in fact it's a tricky race most years and not one I often get involved in. If I was forced to name a horse I fancy it would Seville who appears to have what it takes to win this race. He was 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy behind Casamento and that horse was also fancied for this at one stage. He was only 2nd in price behind Frankel who has since been scratched so it shows how highly he was regarded. Sadly, Casamento is also not participating.

Seville appears to need a strong run race and he didn't really get that in the Racing Post trophy. He was staying on at the end and doing his best work but he couldn't quite get to the winner. He beat the stable first choice that day and that horse has run well since. The much talked of Native Khan was beaten back in in fourth. The ground was good that day and I think this horse needs fast ground and he should get that today.

In the Dante the pace was a crawl and once again it didn't suit Seville who finished second behind the current favourite Carlton House. That suited the winner but not Seville who needs a strong pace and a test at 1m2f. Today it should be a stronger pace and there is an extra 2f which should suit this horse. Connections have campaigned him quietly and I think this has always been the target. I expect a decent run from him.

Of the others you have to respect Recital who surely must go close. The French Horse Pour Moi was all the rage and his price plummeted after a decent work gallop. Sadly he is by Montjeu and I feel he would be much better on a ground with some more give in it. The course is going to be like a road so you need fast ground horses on your side.

I will play Seville each way to small stakes and also have a small each way interest in Recital.

Small stakes only for fun and my trading will be totally separate.

Good luck in whatever you do.