Hi guys, just wondered what people think of the markets lately. I have been trading with varying degrees of success for more than 4 years. Having developed my skills sufficiently I have been virtually full time for almost a year now, mostly with in running strategies. Up until May I had felt that I was improving and my trading was the best it had ever been (and my P+L supported this). However, the last 6 weeks or so I have found the markets extrememly challenging and at times I have really struggled. No two days are the same and even on the same day the markets can be vastly different in the evening from the daytime. (I did note that I didn't have a great May/June last year but my strategy was different then).
I have noted various comment from people about the paucity of the markets at times recently and even the impact of XM (although I think this has little effect on what I do). Anyone care to share their opinion in order for me (and others) to get some perspective on this?
Friday 10th June
Hi Dave
The beggining of May brought significant changes for me too (in running) see the newest entries in this thread :-
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2879&start=40
Just this week I have had to change what I'm doing as the older strategy was just not consistent
Good luck anyway!
Peter
The beggining of May brought significant changes for me too (in running) see the newest entries in this thread :-
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2879&start=40
Just this week I have had to change what I'm doing as the older strategy was just not consistent
Good luck anyway!
Peter
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davetimmins
- Posts: 56
- Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2009 2:22 pm
Hi Peter,
Thanks for the reply and interesting to read that thread. I'm more of the opinion that lack of liquidity and some more organised efforts (a team or individuals?) are affecting in running more tha XM. This becomes particularly apparent in the later evening races when the swings can be huge and unpredicatable - even for in running. I generally find the daytimes less so. I also see this as a challenge and have to adapt to the market as it currently is. There are clearly people who have an advantage (ie faster pictures) than most, but I guess that even they must be in competition with each other.
Thanks for the reply and interesting to read that thread. I'm more of the opinion that lack of liquidity and some more organised efforts (a team or individuals?) are affecting in running more tha XM. This becomes particularly apparent in the later evening races when the swings can be huge and unpredicatable - even for in running. I generally find the daytimes less so. I also see this as a challenge and have to adapt to the market as it currently is. There are clearly people who have an advantage (ie faster pictures) than most, but I guess that even they must be in competition with each other.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Perhaps the change from Jumps to flats has an affect on your trading?
Have to say I have found today so far brilliant, made more in the first 3 races than I did yesterday by some way. Just hope it keeps up.
Have to say I have found today so far brilliant, made more in the first 3 races than I did yesterday by some way. Just hope it keeps up.
Hi Dave
I tend to agree, it is almost as if the in play markets are being manipulated (personally I dont think it is XM?)
Andy,
Almost passed the plus 3 fig mark on the P&L (and lost on the last two) Manual&Auto trading, so should be a good day
I usually know within the first hour how the rest of the day will go..
Anyway - off to pick the little un from School! have a good day guys
Peter
I tend to agree, it is almost as if the in play markets are being manipulated (personally I dont think it is XM?)
Andy,
Almost passed the plus 3 fig mark on the P&L (and lost on the last two) Manual&Auto trading, so should be a good day
I usually know within the first hour how the rest of the day will go..
Anyway - off to pick the little un from School! have a good day guys
Peter
You should do better today. The card looks better. I'm off to a very good start.
Many things have changed over the years but they tend to be gradual changes. Somebody finds a strategy that works so they push it, that pushes a nose out of joint somewhere and they modify their strategy, etc. ad infintium.
However, the two things that have changed recently were mainly the XM, this reduced the fill rate of orders and the fact that average field sizes are dropping. This excerbates the xm issue. I think this is what people are feeling most this year. If you are a swing trader you probably wont notice it as much as a scalper.
Many things have changed over the years but they tend to be gradual changes. Somebody finds a strategy that works so they push it, that pushes a nose out of joint somewhere and they modify their strategy, etc. ad infintium.
However, the two things that have changed recently were mainly the XM, this reduced the fill rate of orders and the fact that average field sizes are dropping. This excerbates the xm issue. I think this is what people are feeling most this year. If you are a swing trader you probably wont notice it as much as a scalper.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I was caught out by them earlier but managed to dodge them since by more luck than any judgement.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I mentioned somewhere in another thread about advising on course punters about equipment and technology for IR punting. Well there are teams on-course who are playing to very big stakes and they frequently drop in false amounts to catch out punters with slower picture feeds. If you are just race reading and making a judgement on form/what you see then you may still do okay but sadly the margin is being taken by these people. If for example you could back at 2.4 about 6 months ago that price is now much lower so your margin for error is also lower.
If you are betting on time delay in combination with what you are seeing then these teams are likely to beat you to the punch 99% of the time.
If you play on errors in the market then these teams are also holding the error to a minimum. Have a look at a close finish and it's amazing how multiple horses never get below 2.0 whereas last year they nearly always did!
Personally I don't agree with it and it is time something was done about it. When I tried this a few years back I was asked to stop many times and threatened with eviction from the course. I was never evicted but I came close. I tried a box but they even got upset about that. These days the teams buy up the boxes for a whole year and then rent out a seat for the meeting. With times being hard and the courses needing the revenue I reckon they are turning a blind eye to it.
I know a few guys who trade tennis this way but the authorities are much stricter and they have been removed from the court many times.
If you are betting on time delay in combination with what you are seeing then these teams are likely to beat you to the punch 99% of the time.
If you play on errors in the market then these teams are also holding the error to a minimum. Have a look at a close finish and it's amazing how multiple horses never get below 2.0 whereas last year they nearly always did!
Personally I don't agree with it and it is time something was done about it. When I tried this a few years back I was asked to stop many times and threatened with eviction from the course. I was never evicted but I came close. I tried a box but they even got upset about that. These days the teams buy up the boxes for a whole year and then rent out a seat for the meeting. With times being hard and the courses needing the revenue I reckon they are turning a blind eye to it.
I know a few guys who trade tennis this way but the authorities are much stricter and they have been removed from the court many times.
Totally agree, its not fair that large groups of people with deep pockets are skimming off the wee guys, in my eyes its cheating and should be stopped, I know there are plenty who will disagree, but why should some have a 'glympse' of the future and others be left behind scraping the barrell?
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davetimmins
- Posts: 56
- Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2009 2:22 pm
JG agree that there are teams at the course but that doesn't explain how this can happen at various meetings on the same day. I think trading rooms with SIS will also provide faster pictures. The latter cannot be controlled but on-course should be outed. This is akin to cheating - if it were bookies and not punters being cheated it wouldn't last long! I think the only way is to adapt and work with it. Swing Traders are looking for price movements and they certainly provide those.
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JollyGreen
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- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Hi Davedavetimmins wrote:JG agree that there are teams at the course but that doesn't explain how this can happen at various meetings on the same day.
It does explain it to a certain extent because they can only get away with it at certain tracks. I do not know the full list but as they say in the advert "I know a man who does". If you go back a few years then the first course that became popular for this method was Wolverhampton. They have the hotel on site with live racetech feeds into the rooms so what could be better. Slowly they have extended their reach to other tracks, Leicester, Uttoxeter, Newton Abbot to name a few of the recent ones.
The SIS boys in the trading rooms are now getting nervy when it's an ATR day because they know the boys at the track (some of their former trading room mates) are hoovering up the action. I mentioned ATR because the courses they cover offer a bigger opportunity to the track boys as it can be up to 6.5 seconds between what they see on the track and what the average ATR viewer sees.....that's a huge difference!