Choosing the right entry point on horse scalping?

[BETANL]

Hi.
I have been trying a couple of strategies to scalp trade with mixed success. After analyzing my trades I reached a conclusion that to have successful trades one has to know two things. The entry point and exit point. The exit point is one tick above or below your price of entry (as not to be too greedy). What I still need to figure out is the entry point. The problem I am encountering is that I am entering at a price which most of the times moves against me thus incurring a loss. Im quite sure there is a piece of information I am missing out on as when I see most of the vids posted on how to trade its as if the person trading knows exactly that he is entering at the right entry point to make a one tick profit. Can anyone suggest and strategies or share info on choosing the right entry points to a trade please?

[Iron]

The entry point and exit point. The exit point is one tick above or below your price of entry (as not to be too greedy).

Going for more than 1 tick doesn't necessarily mean you're being greedy.

Depending on your strike rate and how many ticks' loss you take on average, letting your profits run could be essential. There's nothing noble about taking 1 tick if the market is offering you 5!

What I still need to figure out is the entry point. The problem I am encountering is that I am entering at a price which most of the times moves against me thus incurring a loss.

Have you tried scratching your trades for zero profit or loss?

Or how about setting a slightly larger stop?

Im quite sure there is a piece of information I am missing.

Not necessarily. Markets are not linear, ie 'When A happens, B will follow'. They are chaotic, and frequently defy people's expectations.

One highly successful trader I know once told me that things normally go wrong when he's trading the range. But because he keeps his composure, sticks to his plan, and keeps putting money in regardless (rather than freezing), he usually comes out on top...

Jeff

[Talkbet]

Interesting that you also picked up on the 'not being too greedy' comment.
From what I've learnt (and still learning), you need to be greedy, if you've made 1 or 2 or 3 ticks profit so what ? Lets let it run it might make 5/10/15/20 ticks.
Don't be scared, be greedy.

[Iron]

I agree.

I think there's a big difference between rational and irrational greed.

Rational greed is about maximising your profits without over-extending yourself.

Irrational greed is about throwing caution to the wind and trying to take more than the market is willing to offer.

One of the best trading quotes I've come across is 'Want what the market wants'. If the market spikes against you and wants you to take a 3 tick loss, you need to just take it on the chin. But if Mother Market is feeling generous and gives you a nice drift from 2.5 to 5.0, it would be ungracious not to take advantage!

Jeff

[convoysur]

its easy to be calm when one has a bit of experience and a decent bank,in the beginning its a case of loss loss loss,and the fear gets a grip.its unfortunately all part of growing up.perhaps i should call it a learning curve,
good news is that it gets better,one learn from losses i now verry carefully chose my entry point ,by looking at the time to off ,the history of the charts.i found a great video on this ,have a look ,
Marc ,
http://www.youtube.com/user/JimmakosCom#p/u

[Iron]

Hi Marc

I think relaxation exercises can help.

Also, once you're confident you know what you're doing, you can be pretty sure that your long-term edge will take care of you, and more than compensate you for any losses. When you're at that stage, the risks to your finances of not trading outweigh the risks of trading, when you take into account opportunity cost...

Jeff

[Talkbet]

My penny dropping moment was when I was staring at a trade going against me and disappearing into the distance as tick after tick flew by.
I thought to myself, "why don't I get a trade like that go for me the right way ?". You could almost hear the ching as the penny dropped in my head

[convoysur]

Hi Jeff.
Your quite right about the relaxation, one thing i always remember is what peter webb has said on many occasions is that ,there are always oppertunaties in the markets ,im always finding them,but i dont take many risks any more ,ive been concentrating on building my bank,its a very slow process,but when i get it up to a thousand or 2 then i know ill be able to have better trades ,its very frustrating seeing opartunaties and trying to trade with kiddy size stakes.when a quick couple of 500 or 800 euro trades would do the trick ,in and out money made,
Marc

[to75ne]

Hi Jeff.
but when i get it up to a thousand or 2 then i know ill be able to have better trades ,its very frustrating seeing opartunaties and trying to trade with kiddy size stakes.when a quick couple of 500 or 800 euro trades would do the trick ,in and out money made,
Marc

getting your bank up to a "1000 or 2000" does not mean your will have better trades. you may make a larger profit or a larger loss for that matter. Not necessarily better trades.

you would probably be better to build you bank slowly over a long time, that way your learn how and when to apply larger stakes and when to use smaller stakes.

in my opinion you would be better off for example from a 100 bank, and take out 50% of your winnings each session. and build your back up by 50% from the previous sessions gains. if you have a losing session, then you don’t top your bank up, you trade from what you have left and carry on building taking out 50% of your profit slowly building upwards.

When you get to 300 you then take out 70% of winnings, and continue building your bank session by session by 30% from your previous session’s winnings.

Get to 800 take out %20, get to 1000 take out 10%. At each “landmark” restricting your bank growth, increasing your take out.

There is a big difference in trading from a 100 bank to a 400 bank, likewise from 400 to 800, 800 onwards. Because you can handle trades from a 200 liability, don’t mean you will handle trades from a 800 liability. Learn how handle liability slowly.

All the time you are taking money out, which I think is often forgotten in particular by people who are starting out, the object is not to get a big bank but to take out money.

You will feel a lot happier and confident because you are making money as well as slowly increasing your bank, and if things go wrong, you will be able to start again at 100 using money you have won, which is far better than using your own.

By building slowly your learn when to use smaller liabilities and larger liabilities, you will also find what your optimum bank size is that you re comfortable using, and just as importantly when to place lots of smaller trades as opposed to a few larger ones. Bigger stakes quite often don’t work as well as smaller stakes.

[convoysur]

Hi 75.
Thank you for taking the time to give me that advice.ive been wondering how to manage the bank as im getting slowly better .by better i mean i generally dont lose much any more,ive learned to scratch quickly.
I started to day with a 120 bank.and made 49.60 so i will apply your suggestions ,i think its great advice.
Regards
Marc

[Iron]

By any standards, that's brilliant!

Well done!

Jeff

I started to day with a 120 bank.and made 49.60

[to75ne]

echoing jeff, good work. if you do take out 50%, and you are evidently trading well, it will not be long before you have your 120 bank recovered, and everything you take out and add to your bank afterwards, will be pure profit.

keep taking out and slowly grow your bank. your get used to higher liabilities much better then having a large bank too quickly. plus if you regularly take real money out, it makes all the time spent trading (as well as the time spent learning etc) feel worthwhile, which will put you in a good frame of mind. if your in good mind frame your make better decisions, less likely to be tempted into bad trades etc. in short a positive feedback loop. trading is first and foremost a mind game.

glad your getting on well regards tony

[Zenyatta]

Hi 75.
im getting slowly better .by better i mean i generally dont lose much any more,ive learned to scratch quickly.
I started to day with a 120 bank.and made 49.60
Marc

Hi,

I've been trying the trading for over a year, and chucking money away for a fair fraction of that time. Many times I had a winning streak and thought I had a winning system, only to find out later it was just luck. It's too easy to be 'fooled by randomness',so don't think you're winning until you've tested your ideas over a long period of time.

The thing is, the Betfair horse racing markets are brutally, almost unbelievably efficient. It was bad enough when I started a year ago, but since then it seems to have gotten even harder still. All the value just seems to be gobbled up so fast these days, not sure what's happened, but certainly other people on this forum have noticed the change. I won't say its impossible to win, but its pretty hard unfortunately.

[convoysur]

Hi Zenyappa.
I agree the markets are brutal.ive learned with the loss of a great deal of money that lesson,this week the horse markets have been very volatile in my opinion,scalping is not for me ,i get on much better,pre match trading football,dutching and bookmaking,my profits are small 40p here 1.17 there ,but i respect the little i get from the market and i take it ,every 70p is precious but when its respected it adds up very quickly,there is no quick kill for me in this game at this stage,so long as its green im happy.and when im looking at my betfair statement i see win .26p win 2.16 etc ,like i said its small but ive managed to minamise the losses and also how to turn a loss into a green,thats why i prefer football there is always a way to get out green ,when a bit of science is put into it,and a quick couple of scalps of 30-40 quid when the keeper is holding the ball and picking his ass at the same time,
my background is self employed sales ,and now just like then every morning we wake up we are unemployed because we have to make our own money ,i love that challange,
Happy trading
Marc

[Iron]

my profits are small 40p here 1.17 there ,but i respect the little i get from the market and i take it ,every 70p is precious but when its respected it adds up very quickly

When you build up to a decent-sized bank, you'll be able to times those amounts by 10, and they'll add up to a nice income!

thats why i prefer football there is always a way to get out green ,

Do you generally do pre-off, in-play, or both?

Jeff