Laying Short priced runners

[mugsgame]

Sounds a little like after timing...I apologise for that, but wanted to share a good strategy with you all.

The 2:00 at Folkstone had a fav trading at 1.17 before the off.

I had a nice lay at that price, my thinking was the race was a Novice chase. This means the horses are inexperienced at jumping fences.
There were 3 runners (the other 2 traded at 1.01 and 1.04 in play)
I put a back bet in at 1.4 to recover my stake. The risk v reward ratio was very good here. To get this sort of movement in play the horse only had to receive a reminder or hit a fence. As it was I got my stake back at the 2nd fence (I think he fell at the 3rd)
It doesn't always work, but if you are selective in the type of race it's profitable in the long run

[SilentDave]

It was a Beginners' Chase rather than a Novice Chase which makes the SP even more ridiculous.
I wouldn't back a horse in a Beginners' (or Novice) Chase to even get round at that price...

[mugsgame]

I stand corrected.
But you get the gist of it

[SilentDave]

absolutely, was agreeing with you - the fact that it was a Beginners' chase strengthens your point.

[mugsgame]

Another couple of nice winners today
Kings Grace at 1.61 in the Novice hurdle at Hex and Tonic Mellysse 1.6 in the 2:30 warwick. A 3 runner 2 mile chase. 2 miles puts their jumping under pressure. I layed at 1.6 and then put a back order in at 2.5 to get my stake back and leave 2/3rds stake on rest of field. The horse fell (Hope it's ok)

Have a look at this, it works if you select the races carefully

[psycho040253]

Sounds a little like after timing...I apologise for that, but wanted to share a good strategy with you all.

The 2:00 at Folkstone had a fav trading at 1.17 before the off.

I had a nice lay at that price, my thinking was the race was a Novice chase. This means the horses are inexperienced at jumping fences.
There were 3 runners (the other 2 traded at 1.01 and 1.04 in play)
I put a back bet in at 1.4 to recover my stake. The risk v reward ratio was very good here. To get this sort of movement in play the horse only had to receive a reminder or hit a fence. As it was I got my stake back at the 2nd fence (I think he fell at the 3rd)
It doesn't always work, but if you are selective in the type of race it's profitable in the long run

Hi Mugsgame

I don't want to spoil the party but there's a reason why favourites in Novice Hurdle and Novice Chase races start at low odds. The strike rate of favourites in Novice Chases is 48%. The strike rate of favourites in Novice Hurdles is 45%. These strike rates are the highest of any race type. A lot of the favourites in these types of races start at low odds and fall continually until the horse trots past the post an easy winner.

I used the system that you are now using about 3 years ago and, long-term, I lost.

Best of luck.

Psycho

[mugsgame]

I don't want to spoil the party but there's a reason why favourites in Novice Hurdle and Novice Chase races start at low odds. The strike rate of favourites in Novice Chases win 48% of their races. The strike rate of favourites in Novice Hurdles win 45% of their races. These strike rates are the highest of any race type. A lot of the favourites in these types of races start at low odds and fall continually until the horse trots past the post an easy winner.

I used the system that you are now using about 3 years ago and, long-term, I lost.

I think you miss the point. I am not talking about the horses losing or winning. As a trader I care not about that. I am talking about a "Lay to Back" vehicle.

If you are saying that most heavily odds on favs in these sorts of races "trott up" without ever trading higher than their SP; I suggest you spend too much time looking at "stats" and do not actually watch the races.

Blindly laying short priced favs isn't a great strategry. No wonder you lost. You need to be a little more creative and selective. It works for me.

[Zenyatta]

In-Play is definitely the way to go for the winter jumps!

That's what makes racing so interesting... so many different types of races and many different strategies...and no two races are ever the same... but this degree of variety also makes things very complex and difficult as well

[psycho040253]

Hi Mugsgame

No, I didn't miss the point. Just like you, I was trading odds-on selections, in-running, in Novice Hurdle and Novice Chases, because, like you, I believed that the inexperience of the horses would be a telling factor. Like you, I layed just after the off, at low odds, in the hope that the horse would make a mistake in-running and I would be able to back it at higher odds and take my profit. In some races, I did, but I wasn't able to do it enough of the time to make a profit.

This isn't a new system. It's been around for a number of years. I came across it about 3 - 4 years ago on the net and thought that it was worth a go. Now I know why the system was being given away for free and was in the public domain.

The issue is that it isn't just the favourite that's inexperienced, all the other horses in the race are too. I noticed that if the second favourite made a mistake, which is just as likely as the favourite, then the odds on the favourite crashed and, although it then began to increase, it never went high enough again to allow me to trade out for a profit.

Before I ran the system, I thought that it would fare better in chases rather than hurdles because, in theory, errors were more likely. In reality, I found the reverse to be true and that horses were more likely to make mistakes over hurdles. I still, for the life of me, can't figure out why. That's the reason why I included the stats in my previous post. They are actually the reverse of what they ought to be. The stats were taken from Adrian Massey's site so they are probably accurate and can be trusted.

I know that a number of other people have tried this system - but without much success. It appears to be one of those systems which, based upon all known logic, ought to work and ought to work well. Sadly, it's not the case.

I really hope that it works for you and the very best of luck with it.

Regards

Psycho

[Zenyatta]

Before I ran the system, I thought that it would fare better in chases rather than hurdles because, in theory, errors were more likely. In reality, I found the reverse to be true and that horses were more likely to make mistakes over hurdles. I still, for the life of me, can't figure out why.

Perhaps because the fences are harder to jump but then only the better horses would tackle them, and the weaker jumpers stick to the hurdles?

Full book of jumps today, good opportunity to test new custom In-Play jump strategies! Not many short-priced favourites today though!

[psycho040253]

Zenyatta

Good point.

Maybe the weaker jumpers are run over hurdles rather than fences. That makes a lot of sense.

Kindest regards

Psycho

[mugsgame]

Sorry, being a 50% Premium charge payer and full time trader for 6 years, whenever I post up strategies that have helped me achieve that status I usually get a more positive response.

But hey, what do i know?

I do it, it works. No more from me on this subject

[Zenyatta]

Of course it works, psycho you just need to find the correct offset, stop and place points for the stop-loss and get the right races.

[psycho040253]

Mugsgame

I have been betting for a living now for 8 years. I wasn't being negative - just stating what I and other have experienced.

Kindest regards

Psycho

[Groovyelms]

Interesting thread, I have noted comments from all camps, looking forward to doing some research and observation. Thanks to the contributors
groovy