Bookie's v Betfair odds

[psycho040253]

Here's something which I've noticed happening a lot:

The expected Betfair odds can usually be fairly accurately estimated from the bookie's odds using a simple formula provided that the bookie's odds are <= 4/1. If the bookie's odds are > 4/1, the formula becomes more and more unreliable the larger the odds.

Now, occasionally, the Betfair odds get way below their calculated value. For example, if the bookie's odds are 3/1, the Betfair odds should be about 4.45. However, sometimes the Betfair odds fall to as low as 3.85. This means that the bookie's odds ought to be 5/2 and not 3/1.

When this happens, the Betfair odds stop falling and remain static. It's almost as if the Betfair odds are waiting to see what the bookie's odds are going to do next before deciding what they should do. If the bookie's odds stubbornly refuse to fall and remain at 3/1, the Betfair odds will begin to rise. If the bookie's odds do fall, the Betfair odds will then start to fall some more.

Has anyone else noticed this type of behaviour?

Psycho

[LeTiss]

Yes, not just in Horse Racing

It always surprises me how many people will back a price on BF, not realising there's better prices with bookies, especially with 5% commission to consider.

It just shows the level of people looking to trade on a price and not just having a simple punt

[followthatcamel]

Hi Psycho, whilst you would expect there to be some kind of relationship between bookies and Betfair prices, I would have thought it to be somewhere in the region of the standard commission rate (5%) i.e. 3/1 at the bookies would be around 4.16 on Betfair? Have I missed something that would make the price on betfair 4.45 rather than 4.16?

Regards
Doug

[CaerMyrddin]

Imho, most punters aren't price sensitive, so they really don't care if they are better paied else where. They simply place their tenner or whatever on what they 'feel' / think will happen and move on.

To be honest, you should say most of the time you'll get better odds at betfair and they won't shut you down if you are making money (on average! )

There is only one of the major bookies (without the low juice bookies) that let's me have a bet and that's betclic. Sportingbet was the most aggressive. They shut my account donw and sent me an email saying they were going to sht me down and transfer the funds I had to my bank account and that was it.

[psycho040253]

Hi Psycho, whilst you would expect there to be some kind of relationship between bookies and Betfair prices, I would have thought it to be somewhere in the region of the standard commission rate (5%) i.e. 3/1 at the bookies would be around 4.16 on Betfair? Have I missed something that would make the price on betfair 4.45 rather than 4.16?

Regards
Doug

Hi Doug

The Betfair odds are related to the Bookie's 'juice' or over round in a horse. The lower the odds, the less juice. At odds of < evens, the juice is about 5%. At odds of 100/1, the juice is 300%!!! Anyone familiar with Adrian Massey's site will tell you that horses whose bookie odds are 100/1 will only win once in 398 races. Therefore, if a horse is 100/1 with the bookies, it ought to be about 398/1 but isn't because of the juice. That's why all the bookie's cheer when a long shot comes romping home. They've just cleaned up because of the juice in the horse.

Here's the formula that will give you the Betfair odds:

If Bookie's odds < evens, multiply bookie's odds by 1.05 and then add 1.

If Bookie's odds <= 15/8, multiply bookie's odds by 1.1 and then add 1.

If Bookie's odds <= 4/1, multiply bookie's odds by 1.15 and then add 1.

If Bookie's odds <= 6/1, multiply bookie's odds by 1.2 and then add 1.

etc.

Up to odds of about 4/1, it is fairly accurate. Once the odds exceed 4/1, then the accuracy starts to drift. The greater the odds, the less reliable the formula is.

Psycho

[followthatcamel]

Hi Psycho, thanks for clearing that up for me.

Regards
Doug

[hgodden]

It's probably arbers holding the price on betfair back in the examples you mentioned

[psycho040253]

Perhaps what I should have mentioned in my previous post was that the reverse also happens in that the Betfair odds go higher, just as often as they go lower, than those calculated using the formula.

Psycho

[mugsgame]

At short prices it's best to get on with bookie. BTW when was the last time any of you got £500 on a 4/1 shot at Ladbrokes?

The BFSP of the horse that won on Monday at 200/1 was 860.

Nuff said?

[andyfuller]

It is important to remember that the BF win Price isn't the same as the Bookies Win price as they have to factor in Each Way betting which is entirely separate on Betfair.

Also the PC needs to be taken into account with the BF prices if that affects you.

[psycho040253]

At short prices it's best to get on with bookie. BTW when was the last time any of you got £500 on a 4/1 shot at Ladbrokes?

The BFSP of the horse that won on Monday at 200/1 was 860.

Nuff said?

At odds-on, it probably doesn't make that much difference. Yes, generally, the odds are higher on Betfair, but then there's commission and maybe the PC to consider. If you are paying PC, then, yes, odds on shots should be backed with a bookie.

At odds of greater than evens, then it's Betfair unless you pay PC.

HOWEVER, there are always exceptions and sometimes, yes, it's best to back with a bookie.

I guess that it's a case of comparing Betfair with the bookie's odds and then take into account Betfair commission and PC and then seeing which is best.

Of course, if you are a straight layer, then there's no choice.

Having said all that, the point of this thread is to discuss the observation that when betfair prices drift from where they ought to be (given the bookie's odds), then, the Betfair odds stagnate and wait to see what the bookie's odds do next.

Psycho

[psycho040253]

It is important to remember that the BF win Price isn't the same as the Bookies Win price as they have to factor in Each Way betting which is entirely separate on Betfair.

Also the PC needs to be taken into account with the BF prices if that affects you.

Good point Andy.

Psycho

[psycho040253]

Another thing is that the closer to the off, the more accurate the formulae get.

Psycho

[mugsgame]

My main point was getting on.
My bookies accounts are long since closed.

It's ok quoting no commission, no PC, "better prices with bookies", but I would suggest that most of the bigger players cannot get a bet on with any bookie.

Even when I first started serious betting back in the early 90's my telephone account with Hill's restricted me to £25 on anything over 4/1.

Unless you are a tenner on a Saturday punter, bookmakers are ill-relevant.

[JollyGreen]

My main point was getting on.
My bookies accounts are long since closed.

It's ok quoting no commission, no PC, "better prices with bookies", but I would suggest that most of the bigger players cannot get a bet on with any bookie.

Even when I first started serious betting back in the early 90's my telephone account with Hill's restricted me to £25 on anything over 4/1.

Unless you are a tenner on a Saturday punter, bookmakers are ill-relevant.

I recently rang up to back a horse and they offered me £2.50 each way at 12/1.....oooooh such generosity!