Morning gents
Any thoughts buy anyone on the first race at wolv?
Im very keen on BENEATH at 2.0 or over,yes there are 4 CDs in race however the last run looks good enough to beat these ,expect to trade low in running at very least (always trafiic to overcome)
Im thinking SP closer to 1.6 than 2.0 ,
GL
John
KICK START THE DAY
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
This horse was given a terrible "polyfilla" ride by his jockey last time and he was stuck behind a horse that stumbled. Then his jockey took him to the inside where he nearly made it!
Pros: Down to a mark off which he should win. Was as high as 80 and today runs off 55. Stable seems to be in form. Handles this surface, trip should be okay.
Cons: 1 win in 25 attempts on the flat (9 AW), apprentice handicap, poor draw which means he'll have to drop in and then come through horses. Price is too skinny for me considering his win to run ratio.
Good luck if you back it I hope it wins for you.
JG
Pros: Down to a mark off which he should win. Was as high as 80 and today runs off 55. Stable seems to be in form. Handles this surface, trip should be okay.
Cons: 1 win in 25 attempts on the flat (9 AW), apprentice handicap, poor draw which means he'll have to drop in and then come through horses. Price is too skinny for me considering his win to run ratio.
Good luck if you back it I hope it wins for you.
JG
Thanks JG for your input.
I agree could meet traffic problems and will trade race accordingly ,stable is flying ,i think ICE COLD ALPHA with possibly KIRSTYS LAD will be close to the pace and think BENEATH will have enough pace to sit in just behind.Seems to be a lot of pace in race.I agree this horse is well handicapped and could win easily with a clear run.Money seems to be coming now after an initial drift.
PS, IMMEDIATE RESPONE thurles 16.15 will be short ,cant see it being beat today..
Can i just say ,i love your informed posts.Keep up the good work and wish you good health.
Have a good days trading,talk again soon
John
I agree could meet traffic problems and will trade race accordingly ,stable is flying ,i think ICE COLD ALPHA with possibly KIRSTYS LAD will be close to the pace and think BENEATH will have enough pace to sit in just behind.Seems to be a lot of pace in race.I agree this horse is well handicapped and could win easily with a clear run.Money seems to be coming now after an initial drift.
PS, IMMEDIATE RESPONE thurles 16.15 will be short ,cant see it being beat today..
Can i just say ,i love your informed posts.Keep up the good work and wish you good health.
Have a good days trading,talk again soon
John
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Hi John
That's very good of you, it's mean a lot to me!
Good luck today
JG
That's very good of you, it's mean a lot to me!
Good luck today
JG
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Hi
I just had a quick look and your thought is a good one. I would suggest you may need to hold your nerve because Ruby Walsh is likely to sit quiet and try to nurse him around which may mean the price holds for a while. Willie Mullins is flying and could probably win with the stable cat so that has to be a concern.
Raptor's sire is not well known but the Grand Sire Quest for Fame is and I'm sure they didn't expect his progeny would be running on bottomless ground over 2m 6f at Thurles!! I looked at his action and whilst he does show a bit of knee to suggest soft is okay I don't feel heavy would suit. In fact if you look at his form in France where he ran on V Soft (Heavy) he bombed each time.
Could be a good spot...good luck!
JG
I just had a quick look and your thought is a good one. I would suggest you may need to hold your nerve because Ruby Walsh is likely to sit quiet and try to nurse him around which may mean the price holds for a while. Willie Mullins is flying and could probably win with the stable cat so that has to be a concern.
Raptor's sire is not well known but the Grand Sire Quest for Fame is and I'm sure they didn't expect his progeny would be running on bottomless ground over 2m 6f at Thurles!! I looked at his action and whilst he does show a bit of knee to suggest soft is okay I don't feel heavy would suit. In fact if you look at his form in France where he ran on V Soft (Heavy) he bombed each time.
Could be a good spot...good luck!
JG
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Form an orderly queue for the payout window 
Never looked liked winning, out on his feet as he scrambled across the line!
Nice spot!!
Never looked liked winning, out on his feet as he scrambled across the line!
Nice spot!!
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
If you saw the prelims for the 2:25 Wolverhampton, BIG ALARM BELLS should have been ringing!
First Aussie Jim McGrath did his usual job of "bigging up" the favourite and as is the norm for him he tipped it. That's nothing new because he picks the favourite 95% of the time! TBH he couldn't tip a wheelbarrow!
Second and much more importantly was the conversation with his trainer. He was not exactly sure the trip suited him and referred to him being a C&D winner as his reason for today's so called confidence :S That was in March 2010 in a time that was very slow against trees when he was a 4/9 fav!
I think a drop back to 1m or 1m 1f is the best hope for this horse to get his head in front. You will have to hope the mugs forget him now and the bookies offer better odds.
First Aussie Jim McGrath did his usual job of "bigging up" the favourite and as is the norm for him he tipped it. That's nothing new because he picks the favourite 95% of the time! TBH he couldn't tip a wheelbarrow!
Second and much more importantly was the conversation with his trainer. He was not exactly sure the trip suited him and referred to him being a C&D winner as his reason for today's so called confidence :S That was in March 2010 in a time that was very slow against trees when he was a 4/9 fav!
I think a drop back to 1m or 1m 1f is the best hope for this horse to get his head in front. You will have to hope the mugs forget him now and the bookies offer better odds.
Morning Gents.......
Some good news ,looks like Muss will be O .K for saturday ,im not far from the track and there is no frost ,in fact mild(which makes a change)for scotland.
The ground may not be deep but dont want to speak to soon,lets hope so as there are some good races at the meeting.
Have a good days trading today.JG if your about ,looking forward to any input today as always.
GL to all...
Some good news ,looks like Muss will be O .K for saturday ,im not far from the track and there is no frost ,in fact mild(which makes a change)for scotland.
The ground may not be deep but dont want to speak to soon,lets hope so as there are some good races at the meeting.
Have a good days trading today.JG if your about ,looking forward to any input today as always.
GL to all...
I'm the stand-in tipster for Jolly today... whilst none can match the awesomeness of Jolly, I do hope to point out a good lay today 
Go to Musselburgh, 2.05 and look at Creekside. Is this value? I cannot see it. Creekside won its debut and shows potential over hurdles, but there is little objective reason why it's price should be so much shorter than Uncle Bryn, who pushed Creekside hard last time, has had two good runs on the board, and receives weight.
I'm recommending a pre-race lay on Creekside and an In-Play lay-to-back.
Go to Musselburgh, 2.05 and look at Creekside. Is this value? I cannot see it. Creekside won its debut and shows potential over hurdles, but there is little objective reason why it's price should be so much shorter than Uncle Bryn, who pushed Creekside hard last time, has had two good runs on the board, and receives weight.
I'm recommending a pre-race lay on Creekside and an In-Play lay-to-back.
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I am not sure about being awesome but thank you for the kind words.
I did look at the race in question but just a word of warning. I do not disagree with your strategy and it should hopefully work for you.
A small snippet of advice. These are juveniles so their form is very hard to assess. Creekside could have a lot of improvement to come and so we cannot take the form literally. If you went purely on their last run then you would say Uncle Bryn is not far behind Creekside. Unfortunately the lack of form from young horses makes it hard to make a definitive prediction. The other thing that concerns me is what else is in the field that could beat Creekside? There will be other form students who will think along these lines so the price "MAY" not drift much until push comes to shove i.e. they turn for home and start racing properly.
I am always wary of juvenile form so please bear that in mind.
I hope it works out for anyone that gets involved.
JG
I did look at the race in question but just a word of warning. I do not disagree with your strategy and it should hopefully work for you.
A small snippet of advice. These are juveniles so their form is very hard to assess. Creekside could have a lot of improvement to come and so we cannot take the form literally. If you went purely on their last run then you would say Uncle Bryn is not far behind Creekside. Unfortunately the lack of form from young horses makes it hard to make a definitive prediction. The other thing that concerns me is what else is in the field that could beat Creekside? There will be other form students who will think along these lines so the price "MAY" not drift much until push comes to shove i.e. they turn for home and start racing properly.
I am always wary of juvenile form so please bear that in mind.
I hope it works out for anyone that gets involved.
JG
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well Zenyatta you picked a nice one there my friend. I didn't get involved but I hope you did.. 
Soon my form analysis will be as good as yours my friend. I still don't get involved seriously yet, but soon my friend, soon I will be ready for the big-time.
Didn't actually get involved much in that particular race, but just picked the winner In-Play (Everaad) of the last race at big odds
Didn't actually get involved much in that particular race, but just picked the winner In-Play (Everaad) of the last race at big odds