It's not that far away now so how does everyone feel after seeing the likely favourite Long Run win at Newbury today?
I cannot work this horse out and IMHO he seems to have regressed slightly during the last 12 months. He won last season's King George in amazing fashion and I did not expect that from him. He then won well in the Gold Cup.
This season he was never travelling in the Betfair Chase as Haycock but you can forgive him that. Perhaps he needed the run which is understandable. Then in the King George he was gaining on Kauto Star but never really getting there. The extra distance and the hill at Cheltenham would suggest he'll get the better of Kauto Star but I worry about him.
He doesn't look the stuffy type and connections have never eluded to this. I always thought he needed to strengthen up and he appeared to have done just that.
Today he would surely have been beaten had his stable mate been given a more positive ride at the finish? I spoke to a few people who were raving about the time but I feel sure they must have moved the rails in for the chase course. All times for the chases were good and For Non Stop didn't have to be pushed too hard to win in a time 2.9 seconds outside standard. He had to give away 10lb to Burton Port so on level weights you cannot see that horse taking a hand in the finish.
With Cheltenham just weeks away has this race come too close? It will be interesting that's for sure!
What does everyone else think?
JG
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2012
I wasn't exactly impressed with Long Run today.Kauto Star has beaten him on the last two occasions that they have met.My feeling is that they will be neck and neck over the last fence.Provided Kauto doesn't fluff it, his superior speed should allow him to win by 2 - 3 lengths.
74.5
74.5
I wouldn't bet against Long Run just due to his remarkable consistency having never finished outside of the top 3 anywhere in 21 starts. I don't think the race neccessarily will come round too quick for him as he regularly raced back in France within a month of his last race and it didn't seem to cause too many problems then (without really delving deeply into the matter.)
I agree that he is a very confusing horse to work out, maybe he's not really 'alpha' enough to go the extra mile to regularly destroy fields and really become the superstar that perhaps he may be capable of?
With the uncertainty around how well Kauto will perform I think the race is just a watching brief, though it would be tempting to back Long Run in the place market were his price to drift a bit.
I agree that he is a very confusing horse to work out, maybe he's not really 'alpha' enough to go the extra mile to regularly destroy fields and really become the superstar that perhaps he may be capable of?
With the uncertainty around how well Kauto will perform I think the race is just a watching brief, though it would be tempting to back Long Run in the place market were his price to drift a bit.
I would tend to stick with 'Long Run'.
'Kauto Star' is a true champion, right back to his best, but he is getting on in age now and perhaps doesn't quite have the acceleration of old.
'Long Run' , while putting in two good solid runs when beaten, perhaps wasn't quite back to his best, struggled with the ground and made some jumping errors. So there's still room for improvement.
I like 'Long Run' as an In-Play prospect, because you can imagine him getting back in the running in the Gold Cup and then storming home.
'Kauto Star' is a true champion, right back to his best, but he is getting on in age now and perhaps doesn't quite have the acceleration of old.
'Long Run' , while putting in two good solid runs when beaten, perhaps wasn't quite back to his best, struggled with the ground and made some jumping errors. So there's still room for improvement.
I like 'Long Run' as an In-Play prospect, because you can imagine him getting back in the running in the Gold Cup and then storming home.