Once again it's a busy time for me so just a quick post on this race.
The favourite is from the all conquering Henderson yard. During Cheltenham it seemed they could win with the stable cat!
Today they send out One Lucky Lady and the current price of 2.60 on offer is simply crazy. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it dip below 2.50 later possibly even 2.36-2.38. If you look at the form of this filly you could not sensibly set a price of 2.60 on your tissue. It has won two egg and spoon races in sub optimal times against inferior rivals. I know it can only beat what is lined up against it but basically it means you have to take it on trust that further improvement is coming. I for one cannot take that on trust and I certainly wouldn't pay to find out.
I am also concerned that this trip of 2m 3f is another thing you have to take on trust. The breeding would suggest this is probably too far and it is a 3f step up so it has to impact on your betting.
I like the second favourite Jackie's Solitaire who is a well made filly by Generous. This horse caught my eye in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. She finished 7th but having missed both the 3rd and 2nd last hurdles she actually ran on well. That race was run at the usual breakneck pace and she was given a sensible ride held up out the back. I think the extra 3f today will suit and she should be seen running on strongly as push comes to shove.
It's up to you if you play or how you play. It would be okay to lay the favourite and trade out in running or back the 2nd favourite in the belief she'll be shortening in price as they make their way up the home straight.
Good luck in whatever you do
JG
PS All comments welcomed, please feel free to join the debate.
Newbury 1:30 - one to oppose?
Its a good bet for in play traders. Mr Henderson doesnt miss a trickJollyGreen wrote:Once again it's a busy time for me so just a quick post on this race.
The favourite is from the all conquering Henderson yard. During Cheltenham it seemed they could win with the stable cat!
Today they send out One Lucky Lady and the current price of 2.60 on offer is simply crazy. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it dip below 2.50 later possibly even 2.36-2.38. If you look at the form of this filly you could not sensibly set a price of 2.60 on your tissue. It has won two egg and spoon races in sub optimal times against inferior rivals. I know it can only beat what is lined up against it but basically it means you have to take it on trust that further improvement is coming. I for one cannot take that on trust and I certainly wouldn't pay to find out.
I am also concerned that this trip of 2m 3f is another thing you have to take on trust. The breeding would suggest this is probably too far and it is a 3f step up so it has to impact on your betting.
I like the second favourite Jackie's Solitaire who is a well made filly by Generous. This horse caught my eye in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. She finished 7th but having missed both the 3rd and 2nd last hurdles she actually ran on well. That race was run at the usual breakneck pace and she was given a sensible ride held up out the back. I think the extra 3f today will suit and she should be seen running on strongly as push comes to shove.
It's up to you if you play or how you play. It would be okay to lay the favourite and trade out in running or back the 2nd favourite in the belief she'll be shortening in price as they make their way up the home straight.
Good luck in whatever you do
JG
PS All comments welcomed, please feel free to join the debate.
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Mr Undercover
- Posts: 226
- Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:22 pm
great analysis thanks JGG!
Have to say I was suckered into the belief a Henderson with this form simply can't lose.
I think we could see the odds dive lower perhaps even as low as evens, it's a perfect day here in newbury with a full house in prospect meaning a torrent of cash for the rails bookies to get rid of in the minutes before the off.
Have to say I was suckered into the belief a Henderson with this form simply can't lose.
I think we could see the odds dive lower perhaps even as low as evens, it's a perfect day here in newbury with a full house in prospect meaning a torrent of cash for the rails bookies to get rid of in the minutes before the off.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
great call again Jolly.
love these posts, keep em coming!
love these posts, keep em coming!
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
nice call jolly...thanks for posting ,
Marc
Marc
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I wasn't in the bookies for this one Jeff, I think they may be fed up of seeing my ugly mug. I will leave it a while before I visit again!