someone has an advantage

[steven1976]

Ive said it before and ill say it again. Someone, whether it is betfair themselves or an entity that has an agreement with betfair to make a market, has an advantage.

1) They have a big bank
2) They can self match their own bets so that it looks like money is being matched to create interest (bets) within the market.

[cambalache]

I have always wondered if that is the case, how can it be proven though,that was the main concern in my decision to give up on trading.

[Euler]

Why don't you post up details so others can see for themselves. It's quite common to feel the market knows something you don't or somehow mysteriously goes against you, but very often that isn't true. I don't have evidence to suggest anything strange is going on but would be interested is seeing what you are seeing.

[steven1976]

Ive just placed a couple of 2 quids on Pistol at the 6.30 in a dead market, and you should have seen how much money started to react to put me in a loosing position and yet the money was shown as matched. If i self match like that in the market it doesnt show as matched. Its just not real!

I dont mind people self matching, making a market risking their own money, but they still have to play by the same rules as everyone else, but this takes the biscuit.

I see a lot more aggression in the markets now, because I dont believe there is much real money around (if any) and therefore it has now simply become a full on war games pre race and the biggest bank is almost always going to come out on top. If betfair or another entity can create an arena where they have an advantage over everyone else there isnt much future in the exchanges.

[JollyGreen]

Steven

I agree and have been saying this for a very long time. I wrote in another post that it seems money is moving to the front of the queue and usurping the normal punter/trader. I have sat and watched in amazement as a price trades right on my order, thousands get matched and my money sits there untouched. I appreciate there is XM but there is no way thousands were in the queue prior to my order. On one occasion I sat with a friend and we saw £100 sit in the market awaiting a match. £21 was matched and then the remainder sat there for over a minute before being matched The amount traded had increased and I had to be at the front of the queue but my money sat there laughing at me!

Betfair tried to stop traders with transaction charges, PC1 PC2 and PC3. They realised what traders were doing so they decided to copy them and take the slush out of the market. If you want to play for serious money they will let you but they'll charge you 40-60% for the privilege. I cannot prove this but to me it is obvious Betfair are playing gamekeeper and poacher!

Everyone craves for fast pictures to beat the delay but what could be better than seeing money coming into the market before anyone else? It would take a CPU no time at all to place an order to counter the incoming order and grab a profit. If there is any concern simply move to the front of the queue and Bob's your Uncle!

JG

[enzabella2009]

Hi Jolly, today I was posting to an italian forum about a game prediction movement and spotted something unusual ( not the 1st time that happens). Despite my entry point was much earlier then my 1st post, It took me over an hour to have both bets machted. I know I was in a good position in queue and I can see money being matched but not mine for long time. I did record the video but, there are too many information on that video so I decided not to post it.
My entry point was 1,4 ( 10 minutes to get matched ), closing point 1,39 ( over an hour to be matched)

[Iron]

That's a very interesting theory...

When Betfair announced their sportsbook facility, I wondered how it would be financially viable for them to compete with their own exchange. Perhaps the way they will make it work is by using their position of power to push the markets about in order to balance their books. No doubt there will be shrewd people who work out Betfair's game and find a way of profiting from it, but I suspect it won't be too long before such people are paying 20% commission...

Or maybe I'm just getting cynical in my old age...

Jeff

I see a lot more aggression in the markets now, because I dont believe there is much real money around (if any) and therefore it has now simply become a full on war games pre race and the biggest bank is almost always going to come out on top. If betfair or another entity can create an arena where they have an advantage over everyone else there isnt much future in the exchanges.

[steven1976]

JG - Your not the only one that agrees with me. Ive been surprised by the number of traders who i would call "seasoned pros" have contacted me by PM and said the same.

In my honest opinion, I dont believe its betfair. You cant just sign someone up to a 60-100K a year salary to trade even if they have an edge. I dont believe its Xmatching. I just honestly believe they are allowing market makers to self match themselves.

I find it easiest to see, on very weak markets such as Ausy racing where out of the blue on a market with 14K matched 3K will suddenly match just as i enter a couple of quid, or on the early uk markets 15-20 mins out. Yesterday, for example, there was 9K matched at around 7s on the lay side 2 races in a row. It just wasnt right! People see the bomber going through 25Gs backing but when they "risk" 45K on the layside on an outsider with no reaction from the market, it just doesnt feel right.

[Euler]

If i self match like that in the market it doesnt show as matched

In the distant past you could self match to ruin the charts or create the illusion of price movement. Betfair put a stop to that by not counting or recording price activity when you self match. If you scratch a trade it does not count to the total market volume. Can't remember when the change was put in.

[LeTiss]

I believe Ferru has hit the nail on the head.

I mentioned in more than 1 thread over recent times, that as soon as BF went down the bookmaking route they would use their exchange to balance the sportsbook liabilities

Of course, the large traders will still have sizeable banks and may try to compete. The reality is though that this exchange is BF's toy and they can do what they like!

The next PC movement won't involve more deductions, they will simply start closing accounts. Anybody paying 60% PC are coming to an end of BF trading

[steven1976]

"Why don't you post up details so others can see for themselves."

Try offering money on the horses around odds hovering around 6s or 10s, around 15-20 mins out when the market is not really moving. It doesnt matter which side you offer the money on as they will just move against you. Offer a few quid around the odds and see how all of a sudden the market springs into life and money starts being matched by the 100s and even at times Ive seen 24K lay bet at 3s come against me for 5 quid. They are willing to show 1000s even against the smallest stake.

Also try the same thing on Ausy racing and place a back or lay bet 20 seconds before the off and see how the money jumps through 2 or 3K against even the smallest amounts.

If you see anything that doesnt look like real money being matched please post it up here.

My point being, with all the above is that you should watch the matched amounts. It can mislead the market.

[Euler]

Can you nominate a market where you can see this now?

On a seperate note, if you pick a very quiet market, days in advance, you can often see a characteristic which is that prices often appear to move on you putting an order in. On non current markets we found that Betfair don't refresh prices often but when you put an order in it hits the database and forces a price refresh. It looks like somebody is following you, but all that is happening is that you match at best price and the market refreshes behind you.

[steven1976]

"In the distant past you could self match to ruin the charts or create the illusion of price movement. Betfair put a stop to that by not counting or recording price activity when you self match."

Exactly, this is my point. Its still happening! I posted about an email i received from betfair recently on a forum and it seems if you can offer a business plan that is good for yourself and also profitable for them, they will consider it.

Seriously, they are about the bottom line now. So if someone can distort the markets and betfair take a 60% charge then everyone is happy! Its a lot quicker than taking out 5% every now and again when the losers have a win

[Euler]

I've messed around on a few markets due off in the next hour but can't see anything if I am honest. If you can spot a market where you think it is happening we have some excellent data collection tools than can break the market down into minute detail and tell us what is happening in the underlying market. We would be happy to run one of those on a market as a test.

I think it will be really interesting to see how the market changes on the launch of the sports book. We have some excellent quality data collected over many years so that will give us the basis to see if the market has changed.

I personally don't think that Betfair would allow for direct manipulation in a market. It would be far simpler for them to front run prices at no risk and let the remainder get matched in the exchange. It's the perfect hedging mechanism, let other take risk you don't want.

[steven1976]

Just an update on this thread. I did find out that it is 100% possible to self match bets and have the amounts shown in the charts. Whether it happens on the horse racing I cant confirm but I believe it probably is happening.