Aintree 3:05 BetFred Bowl - interesting race.

[JollyGreen]

Well I have waffled on about analysing markets and this one shows up a great opportunity to find an edge. This is for those who want to bet/lay in the race or for those who are happy to trade in running.

One thing I look for in a race when trying to find a likely winner/loser is proven form. Yes I know that qualifies as the "stating the bleeding obvious" but let me explain. My first move is to look at the favourite or second favourite and ask can I get them beaten? So I look at going, distance, OR(handicap mark) etc. I then see if there is a chink in their armour on one of those criteria. I could list days since last run, pedigree, stable form, course direction, and many more but to save time I initially want to see one negative to start the process. If I see it, I can then start to look at other weaknesses. The more weaknesses I find the more likely I am to dig deeper. If I only find a minor issue e.g. travelling left handed for the first time, I will check to see if there is an issue with previous form. This applies to jumps horses in the main so I want to see if it jumps out the wrong way. If the horse jumps straight then I cannot use that as a negative.

Okay so that's enough waffle let's look at why this race offers an opportunity for the backer, layer and in running trader.

The favourite leaps off the page for me and screams OPPOSE! This horse had a tough race at Cheltenham and Barry Geraghty ride was described as the best of the meeting perhaps the best ever. IMHO I think that has made some judges decide this horse was outpaced and therefore today's trip of 3m 1f will suit. I try not to get too obsessed with Cheltenham Festival horses tackling Aintree in the belief they will bomb but I do look at certain types of horses that fall into that category. For example, certain horses do not take a lot of racing well and need a break so I look to oppose them. I advise you not to fall into the old trap of "it ran at Cheltenham so it cannot win at Aintree" as statistics will prove otherwise.

Riverside Theatre is a good horse but he's had problems and was out of action for a year. He came back at Ascot and won beating Medermit in the process. That was over 2m6f and the Ryanair at Cheltenham over 2m5f and today he has to race an extra 5f! This horse has only tried 3m once and he came second in the King George behind Long Run with a sick Kauto Star behind him. He ran a good race that day but it was nothing special and he simply finished the race rather than ran on or finished well. His breeding would also suggest 3m1f would not be a given. Yes, he possibly might get the trip BUT I cannot believe 4.5 is a price that offers you the chance to pay to find out, I know I would not pay to find out!

This race is likely to be run at a fast pace, there will be no hiding place for horses that don't stay. Nacarat will almost certainly go from the front and Hunt Ball will not be far away either. Carruthers is another horse that likes to force the pace and Master of the Hall can also be keen so he won't be far away. When I expect multiple horses to be forcing the pace I like to look for a horse that will stay and will be held up. If I am looking to oppose a short priced horse I want to know if it will get the trip in a true run race. A 2 mile horse can get 3m and win the race if they crawl for all but the last 3f!! I cannot see Riverside Theatre getting an easy 3m1f today so there has to be doubts about him getting home.

I do like What a Friend, he is the typical hold up horse. He is quirky rather than unreliable and must come late off a fast pace. He won this race in 2010 but that was a small field which I believe was unsuitable. This horse likes to be covered up and then come through horses so today should be ideal, it is the biggest field for many years. I mention this horse for the players who like the back to lay method. If they go at the pace I envisage I can see Ruby Walsh sitting quietly (he's a master at this) and producing him late. The price is high so small stakes can be used to minimise risk. If he comes late as predicted I can see him going very low in running down to around 2.90-3.00 or perhaps lower if he's travelling well.

When I make a tissue I try and sort out the top 3-4 horses first and assign them an equal chance. So in today's race I would have Riverside Theatre, Medermit and Burton Port as the main three but I would include Hunt Ball because he's a potential unknown and he could spring a surprise. He's improved so much and he won under the welter burden of 12 stone at Cheltenham and hacked up! I would initially line them up like this

Horse %
Riverside Theatre 25
Medermit 25
Burton Port 25
What a Friend 20
Hunt Ball 20
The Field 11

That gives me a 126% book so I need to trim it to 100%
Immediately I realise I cannot give more than 10% to the field so that allows me to lose 1%. That’s normal for me in a field of 11 runners I tend to work on 1% per runner in a decent race. I have to negative about Riverside Theatre on two fronts, the trip and the close proximity to his hard race at Cheltenham. I’ll cut him to 20% allowing 2.5% per negative. I cannot split Medermit and Burton Port so I feel they should be allocated the same chance. I’ll leave them at 25% for now so I need to look elsewhere to find a reduction. I think 10/1 or 9% is a sensible price for both What a Friend and Hunt Ball. Remember I gave the former as a back to lay opportunity because of the race pace and his running style. Hunt Ball is an unknown so I will go to my tried and trusted method of wanting 15/8-2/1 for a place. In today’s race it is 1/5 the odds a place so I need 10/1 about Hunt Ball which is also 9%. What does it look like now?

Horse %
Riverside Theatre 20
Medermit 25
Burton Port 25
What a Friend 9
Hunt Ball 9
The Field 10

That shows a book of only 98% so I am close to my ideal book. I don’t like the favourite so I feel I can discount him some more without being too harsh. I think 5/1 or 11/2 is fair, as any bookmaker would do I want to keep him close to 1/1 (2.0) for a place so perhaps 9/2 is a better price. That makes the percentage 18.18% so I am not too far away from a price that doesn’t offer too much risk so let’s set it at 18%. I can push up What a Friend and Hunt Ball to 10% which is 9/1 and still seems fair. I need to shorten Medermit and Burton Port as I feel these are the main dangers. I would make them joint favourites as I cannot split them so let’s look at 11/4 each. This is 26.6% so I’ll round that up to 28% in my favour and see where I stand.

Horse %
Riverside Theatre 18
Medermit 28
Burton Port 28
What a Friend 10
Hunt Ball 10
The Field 10

That’s a 104% book so let’s go back to 9% for What a Friend and Hunt Ball and cut the favourite
Horse %
Medermit 28
Burton Port 28
Riverside Theatre 16
What a Friend 9
Hunt Ball 9
The Field 10

So there is my tissue for the race. Please remember this is my interpretation of the race and the market using my own form methods and analysis, it does not mean I am correct. It means I can use these prices to compare against the market to see if I can find an edge. Based on these prices, I cannot back the favourite, I probably could back Medermit and/or Burton Port but I could not back What a Friend for a straight bet as his price is almost identical to the true market price on offer. I cannot bet Hunt Ball because his price is shorter than my tissue.

Now it could be I will have to pass but if forced to play I would say a lay of the favourite is probably the best approach as this offers about a 6% advantage on my prices. If it was 9-10% I would play so if they back Riverside Theatre into 3/1 I will be looking to oppose him.

Good luck if you play. Please use small stakes and above all enjoy the race.

PS Sorry if there are minor errors I had to cut and paste this from a Word document.

[JollyGreen]

Even though my tissue was a bit ad hoc and I didn't put in as many factors as I normally would the market started to agree with me.

Riverside Theatre price.png