19/04/12 Ripon 3:55 - lay this favourite??

[JollyGreen]

I've been looking at this market over and over again. That might sound crazy but I needed to make sure I was awake or not inebriated!

The favourite in this race is the smart and well bred Hajras a colt by Dubai Destination. He won his maiden at Wolverhampton without too much effort but it was a very weak race and he beat trees. He could be a bit special but we won't know that until we've seen him race a few more times. That all seems like a glowing report and based on only the above I suppose it is.

As you know with me there is generally a but and if I can find one then it may give me (and you) an edge. So can we find one? We sure can and it's a big one too! This horse is bred to me a miler and he's bred to run on decent ground. To be honest his sire and grand sire liked it like the M1, it was almost a case of the faster the ground the better they would perform. This trait is often passed to their progeny and whilst you can get the exception I don't feel this is one of them.

I watched the video of his Wolverhampton day out and he appears to have a pretty decent action to me. I basically mean he skims the surface and handled the fast polytrack well.

So with all of the above locked away in your information bank, would you be happy backing this horse at 3.0-3.3 on soft ground? I know I wouldn't!!

Before you click on the lay button let me add some more info. I have mentioned before that a sprinter can win a staying race if it races against other sprinters. The similar principle applies in race like this one. It could be this horse will not handle the ground but he may be the best of the horses and none of them will handle the ground well enough to beat him. I would say there are 3-4 in this race that should handle this ground.

The other thing to consider is the well being of this favourite. He is well bred and a future prospect so connections will not be keen to bottom him out on poor ground if it transpires he is not enjoying the ground?

I have laid this horse at 3.00 and 3.05 because it would need to be 4.00 before I would consider taking a chance on him and I think serious punters would look at it in a similar way.

Good luck

JG

[icarus121]

Great post JG..

Weather looks a bit unsettled at Ripon as well,afew more showers could really get into the ground.Look forward to the race and will be following you ,poss place lay as well.

Many thanks for your honesty and time..

HGD

P.S .Just noticed in my notebook that the timeform guest on the 17th March when HAJRAS won said quote( bad horse,not genuine) Im filling my boots................

[74.5]

P.S .Just noticed in my notebook that the timeform guest on the 17th March when HAJRAS won said quote( bad horse,not genuine) Im filling my boots................

Hajras won.And that,Mr Icarus,good Sir,is precisely the reason that I don't listen to pundits when it comes to horses.In fact,doing the opposite of what they suggest is a bl00dy good option imho.Hope that you didn't get stung for too much.
74.5

[nomadic]

Just because a bet loses doesn't mean it wasn't a sound bet...

[convoysur-2]

hi jolly
another good post ,like u said other punters would think the same ,u posted early ,when i laid it it was 3.10 and went out as for as 4.05 before the off,no reason for any one to stay in after that .that alone was a good profit . good enough call .
thanks

[74.5]

Just because a bet loses doesn't mean it wasn't a sound bet...

Nomadic
My point was: If you listen to the tripe that is printed in newspapers or uttered on radio or TV with regard to horses,the only place you'll end up in is the poor house.The one exception is Pricewise.
74.5

[convoysur-2]

price wise ?? where is this ??

[74.5]

price wise ?? where is this ??

Tom Segal - Racing Post.
74.5

[nomadic]

If you listen to the tripe that is printed in newspapers or uttered on radio or TV

Well, that's fair enough, but in this instance it seemed that icarus was following some rather sound logic laid out by JG. I don't think that's quite the same as following the TV/radio guys. I haven't tallied any statistics on his picks, but it seems JG has a pretty good track record on here.

And although I haven't (yet) ever followed his picks with my own money (mostly because I simply seem to end up having read his posts too late), I'm appreciative that the guy shares his insight and opinion here. The logical backing he includes, and the fact that his picks are based on value certainly differentiates JG from a run-of-the-mill TV/radio pundit commenting on who they think will win a race.

[74.5]

If you listen to the tripe that is printed in newspapers or uttered on radio or TV

Well, that's fair enough, but in this instance it seemed that icarus was following some rather sound logic laid out by JG. I don't think that's quite the same as following the TV/radio guys. I haven't tallied any statistics on his picks, but it seems JG has a pretty good track record on here.

And although I haven't (yet) ever followed his picks with my own money (mostly because I simply seem to end up having read his posts too late), I'm appreciative that the guy shares his insight and opinion here. The logical backing he includes, and the fact that his picks are based on value certainly differentiates JG from a run-of-the-mill TV/radio pundit commenting on who they think will win a race.

Nomadic
In my first post on this thread,you will see that I specifically deleted every part of the previous post made by Icarus except the reference to what the radio guest uttered about the horse.My comments,related to the quote,mentioned TV,Radio and newspaper pundits only.In that way, neither Icarus nor JG were implicated.

You are,of course,free to chose to assume that I was slighting JG and/or Icarus,if you so wish.
74.5

[JollyGreen]

I didn't feel slighted at all 74.5 I understood your point of view. I was happy to lay this horse at 3.05 but at 4.0 it no longer became a lay because that was the correct price. I traded some of my money out but let the remainder turn in play with a preset order in the hope a battle ensued. It was a tight finish and as I said in the original post, this horse was the best of a bad bunch based on them handling soft ground.

I would do it again with this type because I know long term I will profit.

JG

[nomadic]

In my first post on this thread,you will see that I specifically deleted every part of the previous post made by Icarus except the reference to what the radio guest uttered about the horse.My comments,related to the quote,mentioned TV,Radio and newspaper pundits only.

Indeed, I hadn't noticed that you were trying to pinpoint only that line... I thought it was common knowledge among everyone here that you'll go broke just following the TV/radio guys, so it sounded to me like you were making a more general criticism about listening to the opinions of others and betting on that basis... but I see now that was indeed not your point. Apologies for inferring something else.

You are,of course,free to chose to assume that I was slighting JG and/or Icarus,if you so wish.

Thank you for allowing me to do so, but I suppose I will opt out of that assumption at this point.

[74.5]

Hi JG
I realised just how bad the newspaper tipsters were about 4/5 years ago when I came across a most decent chap who used the handle 'Mindyerbeak'.He regularly posted on another forum that I frequented.He posted free daily tips based on systems that were based on doing the opposite of what the newspaper tipsters suggested.To say that the boy did good was an understatement.

He called one of his systems 'free-fall'.From what I can remember,there is a league published daily.The league contains details of the p/l for each UK newspaper tipster.There's even a yearly award for the top tipster.Free fall concentrated on those newspaper tipsters who were in free-fall and heading for the sin bin (3 worst newspaper tipsters in the UK).In a desperate attempt to avoid the Sin Bin,the tipsters would flail away looking for big-priced winners.Of course, they never found any and ended up in the sin bin anyway.Beaky would spot them and lay their tips. Beaky must have made a mint.

Another one of his systems was based upon the fact that none of the tipsters ever had a winning run long enough to boast about.So, he waited for a tipster to get a winning run of 3? and then began laying their tips for all they were worth.

Anyway,it sounds like you had a good day.Well done.
74.5

[74.5]

In my first post on this thread,you will see that I specifically deleted every part of the previous post made by Icarus except the reference to what the radio guest uttered about the horse.My comments,related to the quote,mentioned TV,Radio and newspaper pundits only.

Indeed, I hadn't noticed that you were trying to pinpoint only that line... I thought it was common knowledge among everyone here that you'll go broke just following the TV/radio guys, so it sounded to me like you were making a more general criticism about listening to the opinions of others and betting on that basis... but I see now that was indeed not your point. Apologies for inferring something else.

You are,of course,free to chose to assume that I was slighting JG and/or Icarus,if you so wish.

Thank you for allowing me to do so, but I suppose I will opt out of that assumption at this point.

Nomadic
Apology accepted and my apologies for not making my point clearer.
74.5

[JollyGreen]

74.5

I have written on here many times that I have been following horse racing for 40 years probably near 45 man and boy. That was down to my Grandfather who would bet on two flies walking up a wall and lose every time. Everyday I used to sit and watch him pick his horses and would ask him "why that one?" The reply was usually because it was a Dick Hern trained horse, ridden by Joe Mercer, Willie Carson etc. Over the jumps he had a penchant for Graham Thorner who he would back religiously. I guess he did me a favour really because I relasied at a young age I could beat the odds by doing the opposite to him

When the Daily Mirror tipster napped one then it was double the bet on the dead cert!!

My first National Winner was Red Alligator - I liked the name! I watched the race on a black and white TV with my family. They all cheered as I was so keen to know how much I had won! It was not even decimal currency in those days! Sadly that win was to cause real problems 5 years later because I chose Red Rum and my Grandfather had backed Crisp. He had been banging on and on about this big chaser from down under saying how it was going to hammer the field. He had been betting it ante post for months. At the penultimate fence my Grandfather was counting his money. When Crisp jumped the last he was deciding where we would be going for our holidays, Spain sounded good. Well you know the rest but it was not a great time for me when my horse pipped him on the line and won me about £1 in new money!!

He was a terrible punter and couldn't tip a wheelbarrow and that was never to change no matter how hard I tried. That made me take a more scientific approach and my first step was to never read the paper for tips!!!