I see once again that another AP O'Brien horse this time in the shape of Camelot is all the rage for this race. He is currently 7/4 with most bookmakers which is way too short IMHO.
If you look at the last crop of winners you find Frankel at 1/2F and George Washington 6/4f and the rest found the favourites floundering. Also bear in mind both of these winners had the correct ground and on Saturday it is very unlikely Camelot will get his preferred ground. He is by Montjeu so many media pundits immediately say they handle cut in the ground. If you look at the statistics for Montjeu's progeny it will dispel this myth. Yes, they can win races on ground with cut but that does not mean they are at their best on it.
Camelot won a very ordinary maiden on his debut and then won a poor Racing Post Trophy. They went a crawl and whilst he won easily, he didn't beat much and the time wasn't great. I have watched those races again and his action is a good one. He floats over the ground so on the likely soft (possibly heavy if more rain comes) going you have to take a leap of faith to back him at 7/4!!!
I am not saying he will not win, I am saying 7/4 is way too short for a horse that hasn't run for 6 months. Has he grown, has he trained on, will he handle this ground? For me he should be on offer at 5/2-11/4.
There will be better 7/4 shots than this horse!
JG
2012 Qipco 2000 Guineas
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Based on the the time of the first race 1m55.2 hand timed it does appear to be Good/Soft ground at Newmarket which should not inconvenience Camelot. The rain hasn't come so it isn't going to be as soft.
Would I back him at 2.88/3.0? Nope I'd watch
Would I lay him? Probably would if he went to ~2.76
It is still a crazy price and long term you will come out ahead of the game if you take these on.
Would I back him at 2.88/3.0? Nope I'd watch
Would I lay him? Probably would if he went to ~2.76
It is still a crazy price and long term you will come out ahead of the game if you take these on.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I said in my OP he should be 5/2 and he did end up at that price. I didn't bother TBH but he did win the race having touched 6.0 in running.
I do laugh when you hear TV pundits saying this is the best horse he's ever trained...I recall them saying that about George Washington, Fame and Glory, St Nicholas Abbey, etc.
I swear if Big Mac says "they knew" once more I could be looking for a winning post to insert into him...muppet!
I do laugh when you hear TV pundits saying this is the best horse he's ever trained...I recall them saying that about George Washington, Fame and Glory, St Nicholas Abbey, etc.
I swear if Big Mac says "they knew" once more I could be looking for a winning post to insert into him...muppet!