Volatility vs Normality. Can it be the same thing?

[nigelk]

Hi all,

If I said to you that if you traded a horse which opened at 2.5 and closed at 2.52 ( .32% diff ), or a horse which opened at 6 and closed at 5.7 ( .88% diff) would it be considered a volatile or normal market?

Could it be be both?

I've attached all of the markets that I managed to 'look at' today
and have highlighted a few of interest.

The yellow highlighted horses opened and closed as describe above ( opening time:6mins before the off).
However, during that time, the prices varied:

1st horse min: 2.44 ,max: 2.7 a 3.95%, or 14 tick variance

2nd horse min: 5.3, max: 6.4 a 3.24%, or 10 tick variance.

Out of the 13 races today, 34% of the first or second favs closing price finished up within 1% of it's opening price, irrespective of the scope of the price movements.

Given that this could be 'normal' are we trying to micro-manage our trades too much?

[Bet Angel]

I like this sort of stuff!

I think you can put too much thought into a trade but then again, putting some thought into it is what tips you over from random to profitability.

I've often recommended, and taken some flak, for recommending people trade at random first. The reason I recommend it is because when you do that you realise that the market can fill you quite often without any skill. You can build out from there.

Rgds,
Peter

[LeTiss]

Your spreadsheets are superb tools Nigel. However, it highlights how many different factors can impact on horse racing markets. This is perhaps why many people's strike rates are higher on Football & Tennis, because so many traders get stung by things which are difficult to incorporate into everyday trading analysis