Racing this month
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
I have not been trading horses for almost a year, I had a go for couple days this week but in my view it is impossible without a bit of manipulation to make money out of it so I decided to leave it...
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Had my best result of the day at Hamilton by a long way.
It feels to me there is very little money being matched that isn't being self matched. I am having orders sit there for ages and not got touched despite being at the front of the que, often there is several thousand behind me and several thousand on the other side of the book.
Then all of a sudden bang, the money is all getting matched in one big hit but it doesn't cause any reaction. IMO it is someone or a group matching their own orders. I find it had to believe it is real punters.
I agree it has been a tough month, the weather has had a big impact, not just because of cancelled meetings but also because we should be on good or good to firm at this time of the year not soft and heavy. So the usual punting factors are being altered which all in all must surely lead to a drop in the amount people punt as the form lines seemingly aren't holding up.
There is some better weather on the way so hopefully August will give a better result.
It feels to me there is very little money being matched that isn't being self matched. I am having orders sit there for ages and not got touched despite being at the front of the que, often there is several thousand behind me and several thousand on the other side of the book.
Then all of a sudden bang, the money is all getting matched in one big hit but it doesn't cause any reaction. IMO it is someone or a group matching their own orders. I find it had to believe it is real punters.
I agree it has been a tough month, the weather has had a big impact, not just because of cancelled meetings but also because we should be on good or good to firm at this time of the year not soft and heavy. So the usual punting factors are being altered which all in all must surely lead to a drop in the amount people punt as the form lines seemingly aren't holding up.
There is some better weather on the way so hopefully August will give a better result.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Another thing I have noted is that the front of the market doesn't seem to be reacting as normal to price movements.
Also the cancel all button is getting a good work out by someone the last few weeks. The number of times you see a group of staked up orders all vanish at once is more than a coincidence.
This all isn't to say that there aren't opportunities in the markets.
Also the cancel all button is getting a good work out by someone the last few weeks. The number of times you see a group of staked up orders all vanish at once is more than a coincidence.
This all isn't to say that there aren't opportunities in the markets.
Does anyone have any stats relating to changes in the market over time? For example, it would be interesting to see how the average bet size and the average amount matched per race (on a like for like basis) compare now with in previous years.
Given that the likes of Ladbrokes are feeling the pinch due to the recession (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin ... 41427.html), I'd be surprised if that didn't have a significant impact on the amount of 'real' money being matched on Betfair.
Jeff
Given that the likes of Ladbrokes are feeling the pinch due to the recession (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin ... 41427.html), I'd be surprised if that didn't have a significant impact on the amount of 'real' money being matched on Betfair.
Jeff
I got majorly screwed on an sp order yesterday! whatevr the selection was was trading at 3.5 most of the pre market. I had a hefty order getting nibbled at 3.5 and left it as an sp order. Market suspended and came into play and bang sp returned 4.17! Spent the next 2 hours clawing back to 0!!!
Do these new market characteristics present opportunities to traders, if they adapt their techniques, or do they simply make the market untradable?
For example, if the market is jumping about like a flea on acid, would widening your stop be a good way of avoiding taking a loss every 5 seconds?
Jeff
For example, if the market is jumping about like a flea on acid, would widening your stop be a good way of avoiding taking a loss every 5 seconds?
Jeff
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Something has changed with the SP. I have not been able to put my finger on it just yet but it is just a matter of getting the data.jimrobo wrote:I got majorly screwed on an sp order yesterday! whatevr the selection was was trading at 3.5 most of the pre market. I had a hefty order getting nibbled at 3.5 and left it as an sp order. Market suspended and came into play and bang sp returned 4.17! Spent the next 2 hours clawing back to 0!!!
Andy,
I'm with you on SP. I don't know wether their is a time delay that lets trades go in to account for a good / bad start or wether it is because there is just no money going into SP, but there is a definite change of last couple of weeks.
I'm with you on SP. I don't know wether their is a time delay that lets trades go in to account for a good / bad start or wether it is because there is just no money going into SP, but there is a definite change of last couple of weeks.
I am finding it hard to gauge the "real" amount of volume that's on the book. Like Andy says you can be at the front of the queue with 2k behind you and suddenly it disappears and your 2 tick down.
Some of the common reversal points are also being smashed through, perhaps because of the false weight of money. I've posted about this happening before (couple of months ago)- the markets did seem to realign themselves.
There are also some mega trends. I haven't yet worked out how to anticipate them - they often just come from nowhere. I have noticed they often reverse all the way back again. I wonder if there are more layers (and therefore more drifters)when the ground is soft creating some of these trends?? I don't have any stats but maybe some one has?
The soft ground definitely puts the serious punters off.
Frustrating trading, lost a few (lot!) more pens in heated moments (i need to buy shares in BIC)
Some of the common reversal points are also being smashed through, perhaps because of the false weight of money. I've posted about this happening before (couple of months ago)- the markets did seem to realign themselves.
There are also some mega trends. I haven't yet worked out how to anticipate them - they often just come from nowhere. I have noticed they often reverse all the way back again. I wonder if there are more layers (and therefore more drifters)when the ground is soft creating some of these trends?? I don't have any stats but maybe some one has?
The soft ground definitely puts the serious punters off.
Frustrating trading, lost a few (lot!) more pens in heated moments (i need to buy shares in BIC)