Hi , i`ve seen videos and read articles showing that a good ` system ` is to trade at the bottom or top of the market . ie lay at the lowest traded price , expecting that there is a good chance of a reversal in price. However , could i ask if this holds any credibility as i see several problems in these assumptions.
1.Let`s say a horse has been backed in from 4.00 down to 3.00 in the last 5 minutes to off time and is now at it`s lowest point of the day.It could be a steamer ( this will not be known until AFTER the next price moves move?).Laying here looks correct but you`d be caught as it continues downwards.
2.The price could be being held up by a large lay bet or two and as soon as these are either matched or withdrawn the price very often pings back down again by a few ticks.
The direct opposite is true at the top of the market of course.
What should we be looking for to indicate it is actually the top / bottom of the current price move?
Thanks.
What goes up or down ...doesn`t always come down or go up !
It's impossible for the price on one runner to come in or go out indefinately so you are looking for signs that this is no longer likely to continue. If you catch it at the bottom of top then a reversal can be very profitable as trend followers bail out.
Equally though, would you agree that if the trend resumes then the trend followers will profit when all the people who were fading the trend bail out?Euler wrote: If you catch it at the bottom of top then a reversal can be very profitable as trend followers bail out.
Jeff
Hi , i would tend to slightly disagree with the comment " it`s impossible for the price of one runner to come in or out indefinitely ".
Whilst i understand what you are trying to say ie a horse will not come in from 50-1 to evens , every single day there are drifters and steamers which seem to never stop.8s , 7s , 6s , 5s , 4s, 3s ..... with tiny little blips in between you can draw a straight line from top to bottom. This occurs many times each day.
My question was what should we be looking at to see if the price " may " be turning ( or indeed continuing in the same direction ) - i`m aware no one really knows the answer to this but are there any clues ?
Whilst i understand what you are trying to say ie a horse will not come in from 50-1 to evens , every single day there are drifters and steamers which seem to never stop.8s , 7s , 6s , 5s , 4s, 3s ..... with tiny little blips in between you can draw a straight line from top to bottom. This occurs many times each day.
My question was what should we be looking at to see if the price " may " be turning ( or indeed continuing in the same direction ) - i`m aware no one really knows the answer to this but are there any clues ?
Yes, but they don't often go down to 1.01 (at least pre-off). That said, sometimes they will carry on steaming right up to the off.JOIZZY wrote:Hi , i would tend to slightly disagree with the comment " it`s impossible for the price of one runner to come in or out indefinitely ".
Whilst i understand what you are trying to say ie a horse will not come in from 50-1 to evens , every single day there are drifters and steamers which seem to never stop.8s , 7s , 6s , 5s , 4s, 3s ..... with tiny little blips in between you can draw a straight line from top to bottom. This occurs many times each day.
Try observing a few strongly trending markets and see what changes you notice when the markets stop moving in one direction and do an about turn.JOIZZY wrote:My question was what should we be looking at to see if the price " may " be turning ( or indeed continuing in the same direction ) - i`m aware no one really knows the answer to this but are there any clues ?
Jeff
From my own experience, I could never tell when a reversal is due or if the trend is likely to continue. Even after doing post-analysis and watching re-runs (that's how I spend my weekends) of my recorded videos (about 100Gb recorded over 8 months) I still couldn't tell. True, perhaps I lack observational skills.My question was what should we be looking at to see if the price " may " be turning ( or indeed continuing in the same direction ) - i`m aware no one really knows the answer to this but are there any clues ?
Most of (if not all) the time I was continually Guessing despite trying to oppose the predominant trend at "seemingly" reversal points by looking for volume/price momentum exhaustion. Sometimes I'd get it "right" (fluke) and often wrong, and I wouldn't know where to cut out. i.e. I had no answer to what to do in a losing situation - at this point I would freeze.
As time went by I began to hate Guesswork because it made me feel as though the market was In-Control and it pulled the reins to toss me left right and centre. As a result I experienced a massive draw-down of confidence (a bit like when sports players begin to choke).
So here's how I'm approaching this issue (and a few others):
Recently I've begun to experiment with Randomness - some random trading to help take the Guesswork and Emotions out of the equation. Let the market do the guessing for once. Oh how I love this feeling.
I'm trying to gather sufficient data to identify markets where long trends or reversals are likely to occur (watching pre recorded videos again for the nth time) and drooling over excel data analysis.
After I've done that I'm going to play the trend (or reversal) from different angles:
- What if I join the trend at a much later stage, or at it's peak?
- What if I play reversals on 2 runners? i.e. back the drifter and lay the steamer simultaneously.
- What if I play 2 runners that are likely to move big (direction unknown) but I'll either back or lay both?
- What if I use a medium range stop loss (with a small bet) on one runner to auto trigger a bet on another runner (with larger stake)? This way I'm going to attempt to get the market to tell me what it's going to do. Wishful thinking, but it'll be worth a try anyhow.
I'll create a few more What if's when I get to that stage. But this is my plan for now to find a workaround to the question you posted.
Sorry if I haven't addressed your question effectively, but I've shared my intention of approaching this problem. Over time as I conduct and record my experiments be happy to share what I find.
Regards,
Switesh
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superfrank
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racing markets are the least predictable markets i've ever traded - i suspect that's because the trading window is so small, i.e. from when the significant money turns up until the off, and because there are more significant unknown variables, imho, than in other markets (football, financials etc.).
hence why we see so much manipulation in the pre-race markets as people use alternative strategies to make money (money is made when others are forced/fooled into panicking out of positions).
when i first started (2009) the pre-race markets were still obviously unpredictable, like all markets, but more predictable than they are today.
re tops and bottoms, in financial markets that's often where pros make money - continuing to push the trend when others are trying to guess the top/bottom with tight stops. often the point markets do reverse is the point when you feel like the trend is so strong and has gone so far that it won't reverse.
imho using volume/WoM for pre-race trading is folly.
hence why we see so much manipulation in the pre-race markets as people use alternative strategies to make money (money is made when others are forced/fooled into panicking out of positions).
when i first started (2009) the pre-race markets were still obviously unpredictable, like all markets, but more predictable than they are today.
re tops and bottoms, in financial markets that's often where pros make money - continuing to push the trend when others are trying to guess the top/bottom with tight stops. often the point markets do reverse is the point when you feel like the trend is so strong and has gone so far that it won't reverse.
imho using volume/WoM for pre-race trading is folly.
Hi Switesh
The markets are ultimately unpredictable, but remember that what's important isn't just your strike rate. You can have a terrible strike rate, but if you score a home run every time the market goes in the direction of your trade, it might not matter.
Prediction is over-rated...
Jeff
The markets are ultimately unpredictable, but remember that what's important isn't just your strike rate. You can have a terrible strike rate, but if you score a home run every time the market goes in the direction of your trade, it might not matter.
Prediction is over-rated...
Jeff
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
good point, maybe the WoM chart is handy at times.Ferru123 wrote:I'm in two minds about WOM, but the fact that pros use it (including Euler) does make me wonder whether it's more that superstitious nonsense.
Jeff
superfrank wrote: imho using volume/WoM for pre-race trading is folly.
Hi , some fantastic comments which are appreciated .
Do the Betfair steamers ( or moves in general ) move more quickly than the course prices. I come from many years experience of standing in the bookies or on course watching steamers / drifters or whatever but the actual bookies prices might only change every 2/3 mins if that whereas we all know a price can go from 3.00 to 3.25 to 3.50 to 3.75 to 4.00 within a minute or so. This would not happen on course.
My guess is the bookies are always playing catch up so the prices shown on Oddschecker / Sportinglife cannot be trusted to be accurate ?
Thanks
Do the Betfair steamers ( or moves in general ) move more quickly than the course prices. I come from many years experience of standing in the bookies or on course watching steamers / drifters or whatever but the actual bookies prices might only change every 2/3 mins if that whereas we all know a price can go from 3.00 to 3.25 to 3.50 to 3.75 to 4.00 within a minute or so. This would not happen on course.
My guess is the bookies are always playing catch up so the prices shown on Oddschecker / Sportinglife cannot be trusted to be accurate ?
Thanks
Hi Ferru ,
35 years of training from my father and both grandfathers ! I learned at an early stage to bet win only using a well funded bank to level stakes.
I had the honour ( and target of many i think ) to have my bets refused at a local bookmakers and once went through the card at Cheltenham - the day Celtic Shot won the Champion Hurdle.... ahh memories.
Since i can`t contribute much with advice to trading, I`ll give this little snippet i picked up a long time ago. Leicester racecourse in the heavy ( happens more than you might think ) check out the middle of the course in large fields up to a mile ( the track straight is a mile long in fact ) . Stalls around 8,9,10,11,12.
Phew , i feel better now that i`ve imparted soe knowledge.
Thanks for all replies.
35 years of training from my father and both grandfathers ! I learned at an early stage to bet win only using a well funded bank to level stakes.
I had the honour ( and target of many i think ) to have my bets refused at a local bookmakers and once went through the card at Cheltenham - the day Celtic Shot won the Champion Hurdle.... ahh memories.
Since i can`t contribute much with advice to trading, I`ll give this little snippet i picked up a long time ago. Leicester racecourse in the heavy ( happens more than you might think ) check out the middle of the course in large fields up to a mile ( the track straight is a mile long in fact ) . Stalls around 8,9,10,11,12.
Phew , i feel better now that i`ve imparted soe knowledge.
Thanks for all replies.
This is a good thread and may be interesting reading for you: -
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5106&p=39061#p39061
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5106&p=39061#p39061