As someone new to trading,it is difficult to know how to measure success. I know many will say that any profit is good profit and as I'm enjoying my fair share of slaps from the markets during my education I have some sympathy with that.
The trouble I have is that when trading is going in my favour, I have no frame of reference against which to measure success (except perhaps my losses). As a consequence I don't really know whether I should stop with what I have gained, say 10 pips, or press on in the hope of getting even more with the accompanying risk of losing some or all of it.
I am trading minimum stakes as a learner so ten pips doesn't get you far. Obviously higher stakes would mean a better return.
Can some of you more experienced traders on the forum tell me what number of pips, roughly, would you consider a good result from your trading of a typical horse race in the UK before the off?
Thanks for any insights in advance.
Trading - when is enough - enough?
Why not measure your success by looking at the process rather than the outcome? eg 'Am I executing trades flawlessly according to my plan?'
If you are, then whether or not you make a profit or a less over a large number of trades gives you an indication of how sound your methodology is. And if you aren't, then that tells you that you need to work on your self-discipline.
Jeff
If you are, then whether or not you make a profit or a less over a large number of trades gives you an indication of how sound your methodology is. And if you aren't, then that tells you that you need to work on your self-discipline.
Jeff
Thanks for replying Jeff. I appreciate you taking the trouble.
For me personally, the outcome is all that matters. Trading beautifully, but making little or nothing is not very appealing.
I am already highly disciplined. I am unfazed by losses. I limit them as best I can and I accept them as a cost of doing business. I certainly don't chase them.
What I am trying to find out is, what I need to be looking to achieve before increasing my stakes.
I can obviously find out myself with a few weeks trial and error but I wouldn't have thought a profitable trader would consider this a state secret.
Obviously the bigger your bets, the more you return, so fewer pips are needed. So do you bet big and take your profits early, or do you bet big and hang around a bit?
For example, I just took 15 pips out of a race a Kempton this evening. I just don't know whether that's good, bad or indifferent.
Perhaps I'm asking for the length of a piece of string.
For me personally, the outcome is all that matters. Trading beautifully, but making little or nothing is not very appealing.
I am already highly disciplined. I am unfazed by losses. I limit them as best I can and I accept them as a cost of doing business. I certainly don't chase them.
What I am trying to find out is, what I need to be looking to achieve before increasing my stakes.
I can obviously find out myself with a few weeks trial and error but I wouldn't have thought a profitable trader would consider this a state secret.
Obviously the bigger your bets, the more you return, so fewer pips are needed. So do you bet big and take your profits early, or do you bet big and hang around a bit?
For example, I just took 15 pips out of a race a Kempton this evening. I just don't know whether that's good, bad or indifferent.
Perhaps I'm asking for the length of a piece of string.
Right, ok, and before you get an influx of not so nice replies which I got when I posted such a message in the forum when I started trading a few months ago. The advise I can give you is the forum is full of people that are way out there in trading and deal in numbers we dont even know existed and when you ask questions like you did they think you are 'expecting a living' and ypu expect them to give it you. The simple think you have to control is you! The measure of success is personnal. If you have had a lucky run, based on no study of the markets, tracks, trends, weather, going, jockeys, wom, trends, manipulation etc etc, then take it as a success, the same way as you are accepting your losses. If you have earnt what you want for the day control your greed, enjoy the rest of your day and go again tomorrow! Why get greedy by hanging in there, or doing things you shouldnt. Try using larger trades and experience taking a hit and then you will no what I mean by all the feelings you get! I love it but I cant do it right yet but I will get there!
If you trade beautifully, then the outcome will look after itself.Frogmella wrote: For me personally, the outcome is all that matters. Trading beautifully, but making little or nothing is not very appealing.
As regards how large a sample size is sufficient to determine whether you have an edge, I imagine it would depend on a number of factors, such as your average risk vs your average reward and your strike rate. Why not start out with a modest bank, risk x% of it per trade, and see what happens with your bank? If you have an edge, then chances are that your bank will expand pretty quickly. And if you don't, then you won't have lost much money.
Jeff
Frogmella wrote:As someone new to trading,it is difficult to know how to measure success. I know many will say that any profit is good profit and as I'm enjoying my fair share of slaps from the markets during my education I have some sympathy with that.
The trouble I have is that when trading is going in my favour, I have no frame of reference against which to measure success (except perhaps my losses). As a consequence I don't really know whether I should stop with what I have gained, say 10 pips, or press on in the hope of getting even more with the accompanying risk of losing some or all of it.
I am trading minimum stakes as a learner so ten pips doesn't get you far. Obviously higher stakes would mean a better return.
Can some of you more experienced traders on the forum tell me what number of pips, roughly, would you consider a good result from your trading of a typical horse race in the UK before the off?
Thanks for any insights in advance.
It's an impossible question to answer really, as we don't know your style of trading or your strike rate so it's something you have to find out for yourself.
You can make money from taking one tick profits if your strike rate is high enough, likewise some traders may only make a profit on 2 or 3 trades per day / week with tons of small losses inbetween.
I would think that all of us measure success slightly differently. So your frame of reference should be your measurement. That can be financial or mastering your strategy.
It is really irrelevant whatever replies you get because others will measure success differently.
Deep down all of us have some measurement, we may not even realise it or admit to it, but when we log off our brains tell us we have done well or done badly.
ok, i couldnt resist mine is..
If the figure at the bottom of my screen is greater than when i started that morning - i am a success.
Good luck.
It is really irrelevant whatever replies you get because others will measure success differently.
Deep down all of us have some measurement, we may not even realise it or admit to it, but when we log off our brains tell us we have done well or done badly.
ok, i couldnt resist mine is..
If the figure at the bottom of my screen is greater than when i started that morning - i am a success.
Good luck.
It seems like you have the correct attitude to be successful. Thats a key component. Similar to Jeff, I agree that the basic execution of the trade is more important that the size of stake. Unless this is right a bigger stake just means you lose more.
If you have a structured style and approach you can apply this to money management easily. Why don't you start small and play up your profits.
On global settings there is an option you use tick size.
In the top bar there is a drop down box, set this to "none". Underneath that untick "place fill or kill bets". Then go across to the "auto stake" section which is above the icons of a Football & Tennis ball. Set the tick size and then tick the "auto update box". The last part of this sequence to enable this to work is make sure the icon of the blue cog (to the left of the green T) does not have a red cross through it. Do not click on the preset amounts or these will be selected.
Although I have done my best to explain this, I advise you read the section in the manual.
What you see now at the top of the ladder where the stake amounts are is a pink and blue coloured box. These are the stakes that you will use. The smaller the odds the bigger the stake. Start small until you get the hang of it. This is where practice mode shines and probably what is was designed for.
What this gives you is consistant staking depending on odds. Your stake will increase dramatically on a odds on shot compared to a horse trading at 4. But the risk similar.
If you are using a set stake across all price ranges you may find that a 5 tick loss on an odds on shot isn't a big deal, but a 5 tick loss on a 5.6 shot will be.
As you experience and confidence grows you will be able to set your own stakes without this. It depends on your style. I would urge you to stick to horses under 3 when learning ladder trading. The range they operate in has a bigger spread and is less painful if you get it wrong.
I think a good gauge of stake size is after a trade if your sitting there with your money committed and your sphincter is telling you it's too much. It doesn't matter what other traders make, or say they make. Concentrate on the basics (I'm always saying that). The rest will come in time. If you go too big too soon and after a few days success think you know it all, rest assured your heading for a big fall. Don't make big jumps, small steps is the way forward. The market behaves differently to different amounts of cash. Hence the hot topic of manipulation.
GL
MG
Lord: Like your post
If you have a structured style and approach you can apply this to money management easily. Why don't you start small and play up your profits.
On global settings there is an option you use tick size.
In the top bar there is a drop down box, set this to "none". Underneath that untick "place fill or kill bets". Then go across to the "auto stake" section which is above the icons of a Football & Tennis ball. Set the tick size and then tick the "auto update box". The last part of this sequence to enable this to work is make sure the icon of the blue cog (to the left of the green T) does not have a red cross through it. Do not click on the preset amounts or these will be selected.
Although I have done my best to explain this, I advise you read the section in the manual.
What you see now at the top of the ladder where the stake amounts are is a pink and blue coloured box. These are the stakes that you will use. The smaller the odds the bigger the stake. Start small until you get the hang of it. This is where practice mode shines and probably what is was designed for.
What this gives you is consistant staking depending on odds. Your stake will increase dramatically on a odds on shot compared to a horse trading at 4. But the risk similar.
If you are using a set stake across all price ranges you may find that a 5 tick loss on an odds on shot isn't a big deal, but a 5 tick loss on a 5.6 shot will be.
As you experience and confidence grows you will be able to set your own stakes without this. It depends on your style. I would urge you to stick to horses under 3 when learning ladder trading. The range they operate in has a bigger spread and is less painful if you get it wrong.
I think a good gauge of stake size is after a trade if your sitting there with your money committed and your sphincter is telling you it's too much. It doesn't matter what other traders make, or say they make. Concentrate on the basics (I'm always saying that). The rest will come in time. If you go too big too soon and after a few days success think you know it all, rest assured your heading for a big fall. Don't make big jumps, small steps is the way forward. The market behaves differently to different amounts of cash. Hence the hot topic of manipulation.
GL
MG
Lord: Like your post
It depends on what sort of trading you're doing and on what sort of races.Frogmella wrote:
Can some of you more experienced traders on the forum tell me what number of pips, roughly, would you consider a good result from your trading of a typical horse race in the UK before the off?
Thanks for any insights in advance.
For the particular type of races I specialize in (highly volatile ones) and the type of trading I do (swing trades), I've found 12 ticks to be the optimal number to shoot for. Of course that is only an average.
Timescales are also a consideration and should be used in conjunction with strike rates when considering if you are doing well.lord wrote: ok, i couldnt resist mine is..
If the figure at the bottom of my screen is greater than when i started that morning - i am a success.
Good luck.
As an example; I have a system that compliments my main trading and has a strike rate of less than 4%. Over the last month it has lost circa 800 pounds, but over the last 4 months it has generated over £5K.
Truth is; I dont know whether it will turn it will turn out to be profitable long term or not.
I had to start this account using a 200 deposit on a credit card as I only have two bank accounts and I already have two other betfair accounts associated with those cards. After it had generated a profit of 500 I withdrew the initial deposit of 200 and have just let it go.
I never really focus on the P&L as such and will just let it run indefinitely or until the account hit a negative at which point it will be stopped. This is easier to do when you consider that you are using "betfair's Money" to play with. Worst case senario is that drops back to zero in the P&L
So my point is; you will have good & bad/days/weeks/months depending upon your strike rate and you should factor this in too
Regards
Peter
IMO that's an impossible question to answerFrogmella wrote:Can some of you more experienced traders on the forum tell me what number of pips, roughly, would you consider a good result from your trading
All markets are different and sometimes squeezing a 1 tick profit is a good result, sometimes taking 10 ticks is disappointing when you could have got more.
For experienced traders they often do things automatically, especially when they just get a vibe that things are changing
Using any particular trading style will produce different results, so it's an impossible question to answer accurately. However, if you know what your strike rate is and how often you lose and how much you lose on average then, by definition, that will tell you how much you need to win to be profitable. So I always monitor those metrics to ensure I know what my true objective is overall. But this will vary a lot by sport and trading style.
While pouring over the various issues of the Traders Magazine I'd often notice that Financial Traders would often have a fixed profit (and loss) target in mind - which would often be based on Fibonacci ratios, or Trendline ratios, or Pattern formation levels or such. So your question is a perfectly good one, especially if you're coming from a Financial Trading background.Frogmella wrote:
Can some of you more experienced traders on the forum tell me what number of pips, roughly, would you consider a good result from your trading
I agree with LeTiss 4pm in that it's difficult to put a number on just how many pips or ticks make for a good profit, atleast as far as pre-off trading is concerned.
Though from my own trading style I know which markets or prices will result in the big loses or profits but often there's no fixed number I look for. Yes, my loses I tend to cap at about 5 ticks, but for profits - that is something I leave to the market.
Thanks again everyone, this has been helpful and very interesting.
I am trading min stakes while I learn the capabilities of the software and happily, after a month, I make a tiny profit nearly every day. I will start scaling up slowly and wait for the market to bite me in the arse.
By the way, can anyone direct me to the "Make losses go away" button? I've been looking for weeks and can't find it anywhere.
Correction: Yes I have, its called Practice Mode.
I am trading min stakes while I learn the capabilities of the software and happily, after a month, I make a tiny profit nearly every day. I will start scaling up slowly and wait for the market to bite me in the arse.
By the way, can anyone direct me to the "Make losses go away" button? I've been looking for weeks and can't find it anywhere.
Correction: Yes I have, its called Practice Mode.