Man vs Machine

[Iron]

no there are no automation rules supplied that will enable you to convert your pc into a automatic bank note printing machine

I think you're being a bit coy here.

I don't see why a computer can't do what a human trader does (including keeping an eye out for long-term changes in the market - surely that could be accomplished via neural networks). A market is ultimately just comprised of numbers that change over time, and computers are far better at numerical calculations than humans. Plus, computers aren't known to choke under pressure.

It's possible some humans develop a sixth sense of the market over time. However, I suspect that if you studied the trades of top traders for common themes you'd find that their actions could be fairly accurately defined in mathematical terms so that a computer could replicate their results. Or to put it another way, I think a top trader's decisions could be codified.

What does everyone think?

Jeff

[Euler]

Computers do some things better than humans, but in sports markets humans in my experiance have always performed better than computers.

If a horse is bolting a human can make an instant decision about what to do next, but a computer is unaware of what is happening. So unless you can give it eyes then it can't outperform a human in that circumstance.

[Iron]

Let's say you weren't watching on TV the event you were trading, but were just responding to the unfolding events in the market. Could you program a bot to do as well as you do under those circumstances?

Jeff

[freddy]

The good thing and the bad thing about machine's is that they have no emotions .

Someone who can not get a grip on the mental side of trading may well do better using automation and fixed rules that are always executed with out fail.

but a good trader should always out outperform them as they can use their experience / superior reasoning to cut out some of the mistakes.

but obviously if it's just a case of fastest finger or quick sums a computer wins every time.

[Euler]

One thing a bot can do that I can't, is several strategies and markets all at once, or trade when I just am unable to. So I'd advocate people trying to automate some of their strategies or market monitoring. You will do multiples of what you can do manually.

[Iron]

but a good trader should always out outperform them as they can use their experience / superior reasoning to cut out some of the mistakes.

Hi Freddy

Could a sophisticated bot not be programmed to take into account all of the things that a top trader takes into account? And as well as being emotionless, it's far quicker than a human, and it doesn't make mistakes.

Also, surely an advanced bot can tweak its approach by observing the market and extrapolating what might and might not be profitable long-term, and acting accordingly, just like a human would.

Jeff

[Euler]

and it doesn't make mistakes.

You'll need to take back that statement. OK it's cause may be rooted in human error but a machine can get itself in right mess when an error hasn't been trapped properly.

[Iron]

I agree that bots can malfunction - but as you point out, the error is ultimately a human one. It's not the machine which missed out a vital line of code!

Jeff

[quote="Ferru123and it doesn't make mistakes.

You'll need to take back that statement. OK it's cause may be rooted in human error but a machine can get itself in right mess when an error hasn't been trapped properly.[/quote]

[freddy]

but a good trader should always out outperform them as they can use their experience / superior reasoning to cut out some of the mistakes.

Hi Freddy

Could a sophisticated bot not be programmed to take into account all of the things that a top trader takes into account? And as well as being emotionless, it's far quicker than a human, and it doesn't make mistakes.

Also, surely an advanced bot can tweak its approach by observing the market and extrapolating what might and might not be profitable long-term, and acting accordingly, just like a human would.

Jeff

Possibly i guess, but you would have to be a lot cleverer than me that's for sure, not that that's saying much

you carn't train a computer to see a horse bolting or sweating up, but you can get it to see a volume spike or wom shift or a million other things that would identify the same outcome.
it all possible just not easy.

[gutuami]

in real life situation a computer will never outperform a human. Simply because it is impossible for a human to build such a computer(or bot). It's kind of against the nature.
How can a computer experience emotions, have a sense of humor, fall in love, have instincts and awareness. How to capture that in rules.
A market is = people and bots. In a case when we would have a market with much more bots than people than a superBot can be built.

[Iron]

in real life situation a computer will never outperform a human. Simply because it is impossible for a human to build such a computer(or bot). It's kind of against the nature.

Why? I can't remember the figure, but a huge percentage of transactions in the stock exchange are between high frequency trading computers, not humans. That would suggest that those bots are making their owners money and taking money from human traders.

How can a computer experience emotions

It can't. As a result, it's judgement will never be swayed by fear and greed.

Computer programs have beaten Gary Kasparov at chess (arguably the greatest player in history), so I think it quite possible that they could beat a human at Betfair trading who was just 'playing the numbers', without looking at live news or studying form.

Jeff

[andyfuller]

Just as you say a bot can't make mistakes, it is the human who makes the mistake in the programming, then surely it is not the bot that makes the success but the human who programmed it.

As such a bot won't out perform a human as it needs the human to program it in the first instance.

[gutuami]

yep I got the same idea. If you can build a bot that would trade on the markets than it shows that I can build a bot as well. Our bots will so to say "fight" or compete and if my wins that means that I am the winner and not my bot. Gary Kasparov have been beaten by algorithms created by humans.

if we have more bots than humans on bf markets than these markets will simply become too erratic. In bots vs bots situations the winner will always be the human. The speed of human adaptations is far more superior than on any computer at the moment.
Maybe in a 50 years time with the new quantum computers (which are still in infancy) we will have a different scenario. For example we will use ONLY bots to trade betfair. The response times will be in nanoseconds. Our job will be to guide and improve the bot's actions all the time

[Alpha322]

If a horse is bolting a human can make an instant decision about what to do next, but a computer is unaware of what is happening.

One may react to lay the horse and green up granted but if they withdraw it you end up with nothing anyway same as the computer.

[to75ne]

"EyePeaSea wrote:

to75ne wrote:no there are no automation rules supplied that will enable you to convert your pc into a automatic bank note printing machine



I think you're being a bit coy here."


Jeff,
that was in response to one of those irksome/idiotic posts that occasionally appear by someone who desires a plug and play money printing press without having to do anything like work or thinking, expending any effort whatsoever etc.
such posts annoy me and can mislead the more gullible, desperate, stupid, lazy etc to possible disaster,and therefore i believe should be put down as soon as possible.

i have a bot that can trade some (dependent on certain conditions)dog races reasonably well on its own (net win over 50 plus races) but, performs much better when i intervene.

i dont personally believe that a bot can outperform a reasonable trader certainly on dogs or pre off horse race trading. whether a bot could it the future, i would have only thought possible if someone works out to encode emotions/gut feelings etc.