I've been testing various automated scalping strategies in practice mode as I guess most users will do at some time or another.
The one thing I have noticed is that WOM appears totally useless, whatever level you set the trigger at. I have used Back at WOM = 10% and LAY at WOM = 90% but you can't even get one tick reliably no matter what WOM configuration you use or what level of stop/no stop you apply.
I have read books telling me the market will to react to WOM and its even somewhere in the BA manual - except that in real life it doesn't. (except curiously, when you suddenly find yourself on the wrong side of it)
What say you forum members?
Is WOM totally useless?
When I am using real money I trade with a chart.
I was looking at WOM in practice mode to see if you could scalp a single tick with it, and you can't, at least not with the automation tools as they currently exist.
I expect nearly every new user wastes his time, like I have, experimenting with this and other useless stuff while his BA subscription ticks down.
It appears that all new BA users must spend their days endlessly attempting to reinvent the wheel, no doubt much to the amusement of those that have already been through it.
Thomas Edison, when asked about the 10,000 failed attempts to make an electric light bulb said "No, I've not failed. I've found 10,000 things that won't work". I've only found a few dozen so there's still a lot of failing for me to do yet.
So, its back to the drawing board. Tick, tick, tick......
I was looking at WOM in practice mode to see if you could scalp a single tick with it, and you can't, at least not with the automation tools as they currently exist.
I expect nearly every new user wastes his time, like I have, experimenting with this and other useless stuff while his BA subscription ticks down.
It appears that all new BA users must spend their days endlessly attempting to reinvent the wheel, no doubt much to the amusement of those that have already been through it.
Thomas Edison, when asked about the 10,000 failed attempts to make an electric light bulb said "No, I've not failed. I've found 10,000 things that won't work". I've only found a few dozen so there's still a lot of failing for me to do yet.
So, its back to the drawing board. Tick, tick, tick......
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
they say that if it sounds to good to be true then it generally is...
i suspect we'd all like a spreadsheet that could scalp a few ticks in every race and make consistent money without doing any work, but if it was that easy it would be done by so many that it would ultimately become self-defeating (a bit like HFT in financial trading - it becomes an arms race until, collectively, the costs outweigh the profits).
i suspect, but don't know, that automation is a far more useful tool in-play.
i suspect we'd all like a spreadsheet that could scalp a few ticks in every race and make consistent money without doing any work, but if it was that easy it would be done by so many that it would ultimately become self-defeating (a bit like HFT in financial trading - it becomes an arms race until, collectively, the costs outweigh the profits).
i suspect, but don't know, that automation is a far more useful tool in-play.
Thanks, I do have the advanced charts running when I trade with real money and I will certainly pay more attention to the WOM chart as you suggest.Euler wrote:Try using the advanced charts to plot WOM and see if you notice anything.
I am also using standard financial indicators in advanced charting trimmed to similar specs I have used in the past for forex and they have helped me produce small profits at low stakes. It certainly seems the case that you have to churn a lot of money through the markets to have a chance of a decent return. Am I on the right track there?
Frogmella wrote:I've been testing various automated scalping strategies in practice mode as I guess most users will do at some time or another.
The one thing I have noticed is that WOM appears totally useless, whatever level you set the trigger at. I have used Back at WOM = 10% and LAY at WOM = 90% but you can't even get one tick reliably no matter what WOM configuration you use or what level of stop/no stop you apply.
I have read books telling me the market will to react to WOM and its even somewhere in the BA manual - except that in real life it doesn't. (except curiously, when you suddenly find yourself on the wrong side of it)
What say you forum members?
Ferru123 wrote:Is there anything in particular you suggest looking out for?
JeffEuler wrote:Try using the advanced charts to plot WOM and see if you notice anything.
A very good question and one that can be simply answered by doing a simple analysis on a decent sample of charts. I have over 4000 charts to hand, so I am able to analyse most indicators and how they behave. In terms of ranking WOM falls into a category that I call advanced lagging; ie although it is a lagging indicator it does react quickly to odds movement. If the WOM crosses the 50% line in advance of an odds movement (and it does happen occasionally) then it is equally likely that that crossover will be in the wrong direction.
WOM can be specified via a number of measurements but I tested WOM on a 5 second reading and with average periods from 1 to 21 (default BA value). Obviously the WOM reaction time is slow or fast depending on the moving average.
A WOM, because it is both lagging and reactive, is of little use in trading short term moves (as in scalping) but can match most other indicators where a broader trading approach is being used. However there are several other indicators that are more reliable and less fickle than WOM. Whilst WOM can be used as a pointer to indicate the top or bottom of a distinct odds movement, it has a propensity to swing too far on pullbacks against the current trend.
I don't doubt that some traders use WOM in their trading, "in conjunction with other factors" but that simply confirms that WOM cannot be relied upon as a single stand alone indicator.
Thanks James.James1st wrote:If the WOM crosses the 50% line in advance of an odds movement (and it does happen occasionally) then it is equally likely that that crossover will be in the wrong direction.
So would it be fair to say that WOM is only useful in certain situations, and in other situations it has no predictive power whatsoever?
Jeff
WOM will always be useful as the whole market is based on how many people are backing or laying at any time. So anything that gives you a measure on that will be useful. But as with a lot of indicators it depends when you are using it and what you are using it for.