Hi
I want to test the viability of laying at 1.01, as per the gubbage.com website. The data needed would be:
-Horse wins/loses (can be gotten from standard BF data)
-Lowest price traded (can be gotten from inplay data from Fracsoft)
How can we get both data items in the same database, in a way that is easy to work with, please?
Thanks
Rod
Betfair data - how get the minimum price traded?
You should do a search on these forums for 1.01 and a bit of google searching. If it were me I'd do a lot of google searching and data mining.
You will see that while laying horses at 1.01 is theoretically profitable over the long term it will not be in reality. This is because you will not be close enough to the front of the queue to be matched every time you will need to be get the 1.01 turnover. That is, you will miss on 1.01 turn over opportunities.
I have done a lot of experimentation in this area. You are of course welcome to dismiss what I say and pay to the market fees to learn this.
Other levels under 2 are long term profitable.
You will see that while laying horses at 1.01 is theoretically profitable over the long term it will not be in reality. This is because you will not be close enough to the front of the queue to be matched every time you will need to be get the 1.01 turnover. That is, you will miss on 1.01 turn over opportunities.
I have done a lot of experimentation in this area. You are of course welcome to dismiss what I say and pay to the market fees to learn this.
Other levels under 2 are long term profitable.
In case you haven't seen this thread.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6429
Datawise if you have enough betfair points you can download it all.
You can also have a look at timeform or you can pay the person at gubbage for his data.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6429
Datawise if you have enough betfair points you can download it all.
You can also have a look at timeform or you can pay the person at gubbage for his data.
Thanks. I dont see the Betfair data having both winner and min price in the data. If one was incredibly skillful at programming they could maybe cross reference the Fracsoft inplay data with the Betfair (one line per horse per race) data, for every race in the UK, but that seems a monumental and complicated effort. I will look at the Raceform data.gazuty wrote:In case you haven't seen this thread.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6429
Datawise if you have enough betfair points you can download it all.
You can also have a look at timeform or you can pay the person at gubbage for his data.
I think that it is possible to perform the analysis that you described using just the free Betfair Historical Data (without a detailed timestamp) from http://data.betfair.com/.
Basically these files have a record for every single price point that a horse was matched at within a market, so they will record the lowest price (e.g. 1.01 if present) that a horse traded at within a market. (It's important to note that they will record each price point for both the 'pre-off' and 'in-play' markets, if the market went in-play).
If you pull an historical file (*.csv format) into Excel you can then simply filter/sort by price and results using the columns:
WIN_FLAG
ODDS
You will also need to make sure that you are only inlcuding only the correct subset of records that you want to analyse i.e. records from the correct event type (excluding 'place market' records etc) and either 'in-play' or 'pre-off' using the columns below:
IN_PLAY
EVENT
I have found a lot of this type of analyis is available on flatstats.co.uk(subscription required), and I've found it to be very reliable. They call it A/E Analysis (a ratio of actual winners versus expected winners based on implied probability)
Hope that helps
Basically these files have a record for every single price point that a horse was matched at within a market, so they will record the lowest price (e.g. 1.01 if present) that a horse traded at within a market. (It's important to note that they will record each price point for both the 'pre-off' and 'in-play' markets, if the market went in-play).
If you pull an historical file (*.csv format) into Excel you can then simply filter/sort by price and results using the columns:
WIN_FLAG
ODDS
You will also need to make sure that you are only inlcuding only the correct subset of records that you want to analyse i.e. records from the correct event type (excluding 'place market' records etc) and either 'in-play' or 'pre-off' using the columns below:
IN_PLAY
EVENT
I have found a lot of this type of analyis is available on flatstats.co.uk(subscription required), and I've found it to be very reliable. They call it A/E Analysis (a ratio of actual winners versus expected winners based on implied probability)
Hope that helps
Thanks for the great post. When I looked at the BF data I saw for the Odds just one number per horse per race. I will look again when I get time.
I subscribe to Flatstats. Unless Im mistaken it wont run a report, or allow you to calculate A/E, on any odds other than SP or Betfair SP (ie you cant simulate betting inplay IF odds get to 1.01, for example).
Im happy to be wrong!
Cheers
Rod
I subscribe to Flatstats. Unless Im mistaken it wont run a report, or allow you to calculate A/E, on any odds other than SP or Betfair SP (ie you cant simulate betting inplay IF odds get to 1.01, for example).
Im happy to be wrong!
Cheers
Rod
No problem - it sounds like you might be looking at the SP Historical Data (http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/) instead of the Market Historical Data (http://data.betfair.com/). Check out the latter and you should see a full record for every traded price-point for each race. Good luck with it.
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
is fine for what he wants. it contains mininmum price in play and a win column. So he just creates a large sample and filters for min in play price = 1.01 and notes how many that is and filters the win column for losers.
To I suggest if you want to get a big sample you use a filter eg GB only. Click on the link and hopefully you will get an option to open with excel. When it is open highlight everything by clicking on the little arrow thing beside the "A" column. Cut and paste into your main data sheet. Scroll to the bottom do the same again (remove the header row) and continue till you have a large sample.
btw - as others have said it will show 1.01 laying as being apparently profitable, but you will never be at the front of the queue when the market opens, so mostly you will never get matched to a loser.
is fine for what he wants. it contains mininmum price in play and a win column. So he just creates a large sample and filters for min in play price = 1.01 and notes how many that is and filters the win column for losers.
To I suggest if you want to get a big sample you use a filter eg GB only. Click on the link and hopefully you will get an option to open with excel. When it is open highlight everything by clicking on the little arrow thing beside the "A" column. Cut and paste into your main data sheet. Scroll to the bottom do the same again (remove the header row) and continue till you have a large sample.
btw - as others have said it will show 1.01 laying as being apparently profitable, but you will never be at the front of the queue when the market opens, so mostly you will never get matched to a loser.
People vastly underestimate this and back testing / data mining will never show you this critical peice of information.dav3214 wrote:btw - as others have said it will show 1.01 laying as being apparently profitable, but you will never be at the front of the queue when the market opens, so mostly you will never get matched to a loser.
Thanks to the last two posters. Assuming it could be made to work somehow, how would one automate it across all races? I dont see Betangel as having that capability - to put an order in at a specific price at every favourite (or 2nd or 3rd fav) on every race...?
For laying each selection at 1.01 see lay 1.01.baf.
For laying the favourite only at 1.01 see lay fav 1.01.baf.
As posted earlier, I have a lot of experimentation with under 2 laying. I have even sometimes been first in the queue at 1.01 (woo hoo). But I haven't been first in the queue often enough to bring home the bacon over the long term. However, I admit, its a great feeling to get a 1.01 turnover and is something everyone should experience once in their life.
Standard disclaimer: may not work as intended, test in practice mode, no person (including me) has any responsibility for any loss.
For laying the favourite only at 1.01 see lay fav 1.01.baf.
As posted earlier, I have a lot of experimentation with under 2 laying. I have even sometimes been first in the queue at 1.01 (woo hoo). But I haven't been first in the queue often enough to bring home the bacon over the long term. However, I admit, its a great feeling to get a 1.01 turnover and is something everyone should experience once in their life.
Standard disclaimer: may not work as intended, test in practice mode, no person (including me) has any responsibility for any loss.
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