Betting through Guardian on both AUS and UK markets in 24hrs

[Martinpeterbell]

I’m looking to apply a Guardian scalping rule to both UK and AUS markets. I was wondering if I could benefit from the forum’s experience and knowledge in this area by asking these questions...
 What is the liquidity like on Australian and Kiwi horse races?
 What UK times do AUS/NZL horse races typically start and end at in a day?
 What is the overlap in time zones?
 Are there any significant differences in the market rules?
 Any general tips/hints for running Guardian automation on UK and AUS markets over 24 hours on the VPS service?
Many thanks in advance,
Martin

[Euler]

Unfortunately there is a 1.5% turnover charge on back bets in Australia which would make this idea unworkable.

[gazuty]

You can't be logged in to the UK and the Australian markets at the same time.

NZ has poor liquidity, no SP and no in play.

Australia has little liquidity other than Saturday and in my view is not a comparable market to the UK. While I am often surprised, I'd be surprised if exactly the same strategy can be applied in Australian and UK horse markets.

[Martinpeterbell]

Thanks for the valuable feedback.

What I'm basically looking for is markets that suit a mean reversion tactic spanning the 10 minutes preceding the start of play. Could you recommend any high liquidity markets that might be suitable? Are there any horse racing markets other than GB and IRE?

[Euler]

What about greyhounds? Must shorter timescale though.

[switesh]

I'd be surprised if exactly the same strategy can be applied in Australian and UK horse markets.

I'd say the same strategy probably won't transfer between the UK & Aus markets with equal success. Sometimes it may enjoy more success, or much less on the other hand, but there is likely to be a variance in either direction if used to its full potential. I'm afraid I do not have concrete stats to back this statement but only an intuition based on my own humble experience.

For the last 6 months I've traded the Saturday Aus races to a small but very consistent profit.
Profits are small due to less liquidity, and turnover limitations/charges.
Strategy: Basic Scalping.

I've also traded the UK races almost everyday for over a year now and have never made profit greater than $10 for 2 consecutive days. Consistent loses.

Overall same strategy; different countries - vastly different results. Though I do attempt swing trading a fair bit too on the UK races.

There could be several factors that might explain why same strategies might not transfer between UK & Aus markets with equal success:

• Market Maturity: Aus pre-off markets have a much smaller maturity period compared to UK races. Markets begins to form around the last 10 minutes. Book% may still be at 103% to 105% in the 5th minute. Caufield, Flemington, Mooney Valley and few others are exceptions to this rule. Lower maturity period mean less time for traders to participate without taking adverse risk. Wider spreads in thin markets spell trouble if you need to exit without pushing the market further in the opposite direction.

• Nature of Markets Participants: I think Peter once suggested that Aus markets have more bettors (i.e. one way bets) than traders on average. Sometimes its not uncommon to see block orders being matched followed by periods of inactivity. Leaves a trader's finger clinging on the edge of a mouse click

• Aus Regulation: The Turnover charge prevents traders from flourishing, in that lay bets should either be less than 20k or placed in less than 50 markets for a given week. Their idea is to encourage more outright backers. This raises an interesting issue in that if traders are prevented from offering lay's beyond a certain amount, then where would backers find the required liquidity to fill their back bets? Hence even a Back Only strategy would experience a small drawback due to either slightly inefficient price or insufficient amount wagered.

• Liquidity: For Aus racing Saturday is usually the only full day with decent liquidity (apart from Friday evening sometimes). Even then the average liquidity is barely at level with a winter Monday card at Lingfield.

• Scale: Given that the activity of the Layer is limited in the market, it inherently prevents both, Strategies, and Markets from scaling upward.

• Competitiveness: Vastly more traders competing in UK pre-off compared to Aus pre-off, hence UK is a very competitive trading ground. Some strategies might do just fine in a sub-competitive market (with a caution on stake size) but may not enjoy equal success in a fiercely competitive market. Here's a hint: http://alturl.com/axxgd

• Speed: Aus traders competing in UK markets will be roughly 370ms round-trip behind UK traders and vice-versa. Hence very short term strategies such as speed scalping will suffer cross-countries. Akin to a cowboy with a good draw and loaded gun, but a tied hand.

• Psychological Factor: This is more of a personal & subjective reason. Sometimes prolonged failure despite persistent efforts can weigh very heavily on the mind, especially if you fail to find the reason behind it. Some traders will feel more confident in some markets and much less in other markets. Needless to say that confidence could come from areas where you can visibly see your persistent efforts mature and may have less to do with the strategy in-itself.

  Confidence is a very fragile thing. - Joe Montana