My brain is fried.
I know the EV of a back bet is MyProb * BackOdds
But what is the EV of a lay bet?
It is not MyProb * LayOdds !
Thanks for any input / discussion
Expected Value of a lay bet?
A good sleep yields the solution.
Answer 2 - (MyProb * BackOdds)
Example
If you calculate the EV to be 1.1 then over time for each £1 you invest you are making 10p profit on each wager.
Therefore the layers are losing 10p on each wager over time.
i.e. The layers' EV is 2 - 1.1 = 0.90 (a 10p loss on each wager)
Answer 2 - (MyProb * BackOdds)
Example
If you calculate the EV to be 1.1 then over time for each £1 you invest you are making 10p profit on each wager.
Therefore the layers are losing 10p on each wager over time.
i.e. The layers' EV is 2 - 1.1 = 0.90 (a 10p loss on each wager)