Official thread!
Ten day weather forecast for Cheltenham
http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Cheltenham-UKXX0032
Cheltenham 2013
I'm keeping a close eye on the long range weather at the moment. Very difficult to forecast but this isn't an ideal outlook at the moment.
Well the GFS 06z continues to show some very cold air moving in to the United Kingdom from the East this weekend and during the early part of next week.
This particular model run upgrades the risk of some potentially disruptive snowfall for many parts.
I wanted to answer this question, but moved it from the Betfair down thread..steven1976 wrote:Write about what?PeterLe wrote:I currently trade up to 23 seconds before the off. That doesn't give me long to get out.
Maybe I could adapt that timing..but I'd have to withdraw money from my long term savings for betdaq to counter the betfair account.
I wonder if its worth it Jeff,..might just use smaller bank on betfair and transfer half into betdaq
Jeff - Can you not write to that reporter at the Guardian!
Its swings and round abouts. If your putting a liability into the market be comfortable about it. You are taking on a gamble no matter what happens in the future (including power cuts). There is always the next opportunity. Dont start putting in long term savings for a couple of races.
Hi Steven1976,
When I first stated to make Betfair work, I simply left the profits to build up in the P&L. At one point I had a large 5 fig sum in and found that on most days I was only using a tiny proportion of the bank at most.
There were a number of posting a few years ago whereby people had had their accounts hacked and other instances where Betfair had seized the funds in other accounts. At that point I decided to withdraw the money and stick it in my long term savings. Other than my pension fund, the vast majority of my long term savings came from betfair.
I normally only leave in 3-4K now, but can up it if I need to.
I've traded Cheltenham for the last 6 years, and if Im honest its only these last two years that the penny has dropped. You cant trade Cheltenham like you do the majority of other races. If you read the blogs a LOT of full time guys dont do as well at the Cheltenham festival as they do elsewhere.
The way I trade Cheltenham requires a lot of patience. I place large lay or back bets just outside the money and then wait for the price to meet it. Because of the grade of race, there are great opportunities to scalp, but its almost like being in slow motion and you have to use significantly bigger stakes than normal to make it worthwhile as you wont be able to churn it as many times. Although there will be larger amounts in the queue, the fill rate will be higher too (Peter normally gives you an idea after the first few races what the fill rate is like compared with previous years, so worth watching out for).
When you say "If your putting a liability into the market be comfortable about it. You are taking on a gamble no matter what happens in the future (including power cuts)"....I'm always comfortable with any liability, but If I laid a horse for 2k at 5's at Cheltenham in the manner described above, I would expect my liability to be about 50/Tick/Green and not 8K. The liquidity allows a relatively safe exit. That is my interpretation of liability.
I would feel much happier with a 2k lay at Cheltenham that a 50 lay at Wolverhampton on a 2 to 1 shot.
As we saw yesterday, Things can and do go wrong and that is why I would need to move money from my long term savings (which stemmed from betfair anyway) back into contingency. I would never endorse using savings to bolster the Betfair balance; I just see it as a tool really.
It would be interesting to hear views from others as to how they trade Cheltenham too. Jolly - I'm looking forward to some of your Back/Lay, and Lay/Back on the big races too!!
Anyway, good luck to all
Regards
Peter
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Hi Peter,
I realised after i posted that you were talking about having funds available on betdaq as you usually don't keep funds over there in case of it all going into melt down on BF with the servers.
Unfortunately, I will not be able to join the fun and games of Cheltenham as I will be in Burma and unless the internet has changed since 2 weeks ago I dont fancy having the 18 second delay which is actually quite good for burma these days!
Hope you do well.
I realised after i posted that you were talking about having funds available on betdaq as you usually don't keep funds over there in case of it all going into melt down on BF with the servers.
Unfortunately, I will not be able to join the fun and games of Cheltenham as I will be in Burma and unless the internet has changed since 2 weeks ago I dont fancy having the 18 second delay which is actually quite good for burma these days!
Hope you do well.
Hey,
Can someone point me in the direction of a decent tipping source for the festival.
Preferably someone who likes to seek a bit of value with their selections.
Interested in trying a bit of dutching but have absolutely no idea about jumps racing form.
Cheers
Can someone point me in the direction of a decent tipping source for the festival.
Preferably someone who likes to seek a bit of value with their selections.
Interested in trying a bit of dutching but have absolutely no idea about jumps racing form.
Cheers
What time does it get dark (or white) in Cheltenham? Here in Melbourne at midnight it's just dropped from 30 to 29 degrees, yes that's celsius. Too hot to sleep, so get on with it at Cheltenham. Don't you have global warming in the UK.Tobedotty wrote:bare in mind that the 16:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase rescheduled to 17:45 subject to the banks course passing a 2:15 inspection.
no idea what time the scheduled 16:40 and 17:15 race's will go off.
sunset at cheltenham is at 18:08, so most fences will probably be dolled off due to a low sunWildly wrote:What time does it get dark (or white) in Cheltenham? Here in Melbourne at midnight it's just dropped from 30 to 29 degrees, yes that's celsius. Too hot to sleep, so get on with it at Cheltenham. Don't you have global warming in the UK.Tobedotty wrote:bare in mind that the 16:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase rescheduled to 17:45 subject to the banks course passing a 2:15 inspection.
no idea what time the scheduled 16:40 and 17:15 race's will go off.
no we don't have gloabal warming in the uk does not effect us.
we have inverse global warming - fecking cold
