Tricky Gold Cup 2013...a real puzzle!

[JollyGreen]

This is a tight race and to be honest I feel you can only put a line through two of them; Monbeg Dude and Wayward Prince. I don't think either would win with a fence head start.

Now the remainder are different and you couldn't dismiss any of them with much confidence. I would have a slight reservation about Silviniaco Conti because he strikes me as the type of horse that excels on flat track where he can dominate. I worry that at the full on pace of a Gold Cup with horses around him he may fold up. I could be wrong but at the price I couldn't back him. His last results haven't produced great times so I worry he is the real deal....at this price, which is everything.

Bob's Worth seems to love Cheltenham and he gave a nice profitable win last year. He has done very little wrong so is a worthy favourite. I still couldn't back him at the price. I suppose Long Run is the horse with the best form in the race if you look at his peak performances but it has been patchy so we have to hope he is on a peak and not a trough!

The Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation also have a chance with the latter appearing to have improvement in him. Sir Des Champs looked like a King in waiting but he seems to have hit a plateau and his price is also very skinny.

If forced to play I may look at a small interest in Captain Chris. I have analysed his previous runs and some of them show he is smart. Sadly he's had his injury problems and this has meant we have not seen the best of him. This is an open race so if he can find his form he could have a squeak at a decent price. It would be small stakes though and he is not a certainty.

I am just looking forward to the race, it should be close. I hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

[Euler]

Looks a competitive race, looking forward to watching it.

[giulio2010]

Silviniaco Conti

I worry that at the full on pace of a Gold Cup with horses around him he may fold up

That's a big concern. My 1-2 choices are Long run and Bobs worth but just by following my instict I have to back with a slighter higher amount Silviniaco Conti, if the horse lose I won't have any regrets.
Still have a bet on my 1-2 choices as insurance 1,3 shot for both Long Run and Bobs Worth, are in my opinion fair if take into count I have 2/1 on Silvianiaco Conti. If any of those 3 win, I can still say,I was there, backing the action of the year!

[giulio2010]

Time of the true! Despite the ground is not suitable for flat horses race, I will stick with my selection...I have a donkey head at the moment!

[JollyGreen]

The ground has changed quite a bit so it's likely to throw a spanner in the works.

It will suit Long Run Sir Des Champs and Cape Tribulation probably a bit more than others but I fear it will not help Bob's Worth and Captain Chris.

I've traded it pretty well pre race catching the move in on Bob's Worth from 4.2 down to 3.65 and then back up again so I don't need to do any more!

[giulio2010]

I can still celebrate though! Yesssssssssssss
Jolly spot on Silvianico...It fold almost at the end...one more good jump, it could even win it!!
I carry on my celebration...bobs worth saved my A**e

[herbie]

well written Jolly... a great insight into something I know nothing about.. well done