I wonder if anyone can help me.
I’m not new to horse racing, in fact, I make a living out of it; but I am new to Betfair and Bet Angel.
I find horses that generally shorten up during the course of the day. These I back early doors and a sufficient percentage win for me to make a modest profit. However, the cash flow can be a bit crappy with long losing periods.
To improve my cash flow I want to double my stakes on the selections (typically from £30 to £50 up to £60 to £100) and then hedge out and green up half the bets prior to the off. Obviously I can’t click the green up button as it will green up to the whole stake.
How do I green up for half my stake? I think I have to use the ditching facility tab but can someone tell me the exact way to do it?
Many thanks.
green up half
I don't really understand this?
You can either green up and close a position with the net stake leaving net zero with a profit (or loss). Or green up and hedge across the field with a small profit (or loss).
I've never heard of 'green up with half my stake'?
Can you give a clearer example?
You can either green up and close a position with the net stake leaving net zero with a profit (or loss). Or green up and hedge across the field with a small profit (or loss).
I've never heard of 'green up with half my stake'?
Can you give a clearer example?
Do you mean you want to take out most of your liability on the shortening horse?
I can think of how you'd do it manually.
If you back a horse @ 10 for £100 and it subsequently shortened to 6.2 before the off, an overlay of £161 would fully green up the horse for £61/£62.
If I understand you correctly, a lay of £80.50 would be a 50% green up on that, leaving you with £481 if the horse comes home, or -£19.50 should it lose.
Equivalent to a £19.50 stake at odds of 24.67 minus commission.
Is that what you were looking for?
I can think of how you'd do it manually.
If you back a horse @ 10 for £100 and it subsequently shortened to 6.2 before the off, an overlay of £161 would fully green up the horse for £61/£62.
If I understand you correctly, a lay of £80.50 would be a 50% green up on that, leaving you with £481 if the horse comes home, or -£19.50 should it lose.
Equivalent to a £19.50 stake at odds of 24.67 minus commission.
Is that what you were looking for?
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OnGoldWires
- Posts: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:07 pm
Yes, I agree with Andy 192, you calculate the amount that you would have to lay to green/red up and half it.
"Green/red up Lay stake" = "Original bet stake" * "Original bet odds"/ "Current lay odds"
or s2 = s1 * o1/o2
for half green up stake = (s1/2)* (o1/o2)
For the given example (£100 @ 10 - current price 6.2, the "green up lay would be £161.29, so the the half green up would be £80.65. Giving you £480 profit for a stake of £19.36, (effectecive odds 25+)
Obviously, this is more likely to be a value bet - though you would have to be prepared for the situation when the odds lengthen. Would you be prepared to risk twice your normal stake or accept unfavourable odds or a straight loss?
In the above example if the odds go out to 20, you red up for a loss of £50, or lay £25 and have -£75/£475 - effective odds 6.67.
I think you should consider laying the original stake and eliminating the loss, (i.e. infinite odds or a free chance of winning £380) or the full green up.
I would suggest that it all depends on whether you think there is still value in the current price.
If you think the price should be about 8, then I would green up as 6.2 is a value lay, at the other extreme if you think horse has a 25% chance, it wouldn't make sense to lay anything at all.
It all depends on your ability to pick a horse that is going to shorten v your abilty to pick a horse that is going to win. If you can pick a shortening price reliably, then why not 100% green up and check your Bet History to see whether most of your money is coming from backs or lays.
Essentially. by doubling your stake and half greening up, you are 50% betting and 50% trading. There is no reason why you can't start off as a 90% bettor and a 10% trader and adapt to the more successful strategy.
"Green/red up Lay stake" = "Original bet stake" * "Original bet odds"/ "Current lay odds"
or s2 = s1 * o1/o2
for half green up stake = (s1/2)* (o1/o2)
For the given example (£100 @ 10 - current price 6.2, the "green up lay would be £161.29, so the the half green up would be £80.65. Giving you £480 profit for a stake of £19.36, (effectecive odds 25+)
Obviously, this is more likely to be a value bet - though you would have to be prepared for the situation when the odds lengthen. Would you be prepared to risk twice your normal stake or accept unfavourable odds or a straight loss?
In the above example if the odds go out to 20, you red up for a loss of £50, or lay £25 and have -£75/£475 - effective odds 6.67.
I think you should consider laying the original stake and eliminating the loss, (i.e. infinite odds or a free chance of winning £380) or the full green up.
I would suggest that it all depends on whether you think there is still value in the current price.
If you think the price should be about 8, then I would green up as 6.2 is a value lay, at the other extreme if you think horse has a 25% chance, it wouldn't make sense to lay anything at all.
It all depends on your ability to pick a horse that is going to shorten v your abilty to pick a horse that is going to win. If you can pick a shortening price reliably, then why not 100% green up and check your Bet History to see whether most of your money is coming from backs or lays.
Essentially. by doubling your stake and half greening up, you are 50% betting and 50% trading. There is no reason why you can't start off as a 90% bettor and a 10% trader and adapt to the more successful strategy.