Hi everyone my 1st post here i was just wondering if anyone makes decent profit from laying horses at 3/1 or lower iv read alot of posts and people are advising not to do this method why?.
i have always been a gambler/punter (with small stakes) and done ok but i mainly did it for fun not to make money i started trading last year with a £300 and started scalping pre race but my gambling head always took over and i lost about £50 then the other half wanted to go on holiday so i had to withdraw the £250 to pay for that. I have also tried trading football and tennis i always get in at the right entry point but never get out at the right exit point (my gambling brain takes over)
this year iv decided to get a database together to keep my own speed figures so i can rate my own horse on his performance my brother is a decent computer wizz kid so hes building a application for me so i can web scrape all the past years to build up a ratings database on the horses.
my question is does anybody use speed figures to lay false favourites? i also made my own calculation in excel to turn my ratings into there true odds (well i think i have) with a 100% betting book. i dunno if you can post screen shots but i could explain the excel sheet further.
any good or bad advice would be good sorry if i went on abit just thought u might understand abit more about me.
cheers
Lay the favourite horse
The new one, yes i have used speed ratings as you suggest, with some success in the past.
With regard to any help you might receive here, I am pretty sure that the majority of forum members, will be happy to take any info you offer, without giving up much in return.
In contrast to myself and a very few others here.. To prove a point, have a look at inform racing, I think its the sort of thing you are doing..
With regard to any help you might receive here, I am pretty sure that the majority of forum members, will be happy to take any info you offer, without giving up much in return.
In contrast to myself and a very few others here.. To prove a point, have a look at inform racing, I think its the sort of thing you are doing..
Welcome!the new one wrote:Hi everyone my 1st post here i was just wondering if anyone makes decent profit from laying horses at 3/1 or lower iv read alot of posts and people are advising not to do this method why?.
i have always been a gambler/punter (with small stakes) and done ok but i mainly did it for fun not to make money i started trading last year with a £300 and started scalping pre race but my gambling head always took over and i lost about £50 then the other half wanted to go on holiday so i had to withdraw the £250 to pay for that. I have also tried trading football and tennis i always get in at the right entry point but never get out at the right exit point (my gambling brain takes over)
this year iv decided to get a database together to keep my own speed figures so i can rate my own horse on his performance my brother is a decent computer wizz kid so hes building a application for me so i can web scrape all the past years to build up a ratings database on the horses.
my question is does anybody use speed figures to lay false favourites? i also made my own calculation in excel to turn my ratings into there true odds (well i think i have) with a 100% betting book. i dunno if you can post screen shots but i could explain the excel sheet further.
any good or bad advice would be good sorry if i went on abit just thought u might understand abit more about me.
cheers
Sounds like you have a clear idea of what you're doing and a plan.
This is a well proven method. Depends on how good your ratings are I guess
There are plenty willing to help if you ask in the right way. (Which you have). I'm not sure how you have been using these figures. But I'm sure they will flag up horses that may be backed as well as layed. It may be worth using them in the Bookmaking/ Dutching tab. You could adjust up the prices to try to mirror your book. There are loads of possibilites. Especially with the automation. Have you ant ideas of what you want to do?
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the new one
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- Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:46 pm
thanks for the reply's im not excepting people to give up there secrets or anything like that just wanting some advice. My plan is quite alot of plans to be honest because like mugsgame said with my rating i have a few options but it can be difficult using my ratings to pick a winner i cant simply pick my highest rating horse every race because it doesnt work and of course it does depend how good my ratings are. i havnt got a database yet just waiting for my brother to build this application because it would take me months to manually input every horse from every race from the last 10 years. (i do have a small data from this years racing).
mainly i thought it would be easy to lay a false favourite than pick a winner e.g 10 horse race if i lay a favourite that my ratings say wont win it as another 9 horses that can beat it if i back a favourite that i think can win it as to beat another 9 horses so laying seems to be in my favour (i might be wrong).
i have attached a excel sheet with my rating and my true odds and the bookies odd using this i should be able to find good value lay bets. let me know if u get what i mean thanks again for your replys.
mainly i thought it would be easy to lay a false favourite than pick a winner e.g 10 horse race if i lay a favourite that my ratings say wont win it as another 9 horses that can beat it if i back a favourite that i think can win it as to beat another 9 horses so laying seems to be in my favour (i might be wrong).
i have attached a excel sheet with my rating and my true odds and the bookies odd using this i should be able to find good value lay bets. let me know if u get what i mean thanks again for your replys.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Hi
I dont trade in a similar way, but Just a thought..
With the new Betangel version, you can export things like the stall number, jockey name, trainer etc...
You may want to incorporate some of those criteria into the mix?
For example, one of the poster (JollyGreen) mentioned that the stall number does have a bearing on the result at certain courses (as does the trainer maybe?)
What you could do is to build a simple array and use look up commands as guardian switches during the day. Start off with something then grow the information over the summer (Circa 800 races a month, so you will soon have a meaningful database)
In terms of gathering data, there is an excel spreadsheet on here produced by NigelK. you can use this spreadsheet together with your Betfair P&L to produce a view of which courses you are being profitable on. Worth a look.
Good luck!
Regards
Peter
I dont trade in a similar way, but Just a thought..
With the new Betangel version, you can export things like the stall number, jockey name, trainer etc...
You may want to incorporate some of those criteria into the mix?
For example, one of the poster (JollyGreen) mentioned that the stall number does have a bearing on the result at certain courses (as does the trainer maybe?)
What you could do is to build a simple array and use look up commands as guardian switches during the day. Start off with something then grow the information over the summer (Circa 800 races a month, so you will soon have a meaningful database)
In terms of gathering data, there is an excel spreadsheet on here produced by NigelK. you can use this spreadsheet together with your Betfair P&L to produce a view of which courses you are being profitable on. Worth a look.
Good luck!
Regards
Peter
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the new one
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:46 pm
thanks for the reply peter, yes i understand that different things can change an outcome of a race like you said. the stall number, trainer, jockey, the going, ect. i will take these into account on the excel sheet iv uploaded i have only uploaded the values and not the calculations tho but they is a column for confidence which i will change with accordance with the following a mentioned above. all the horses start with a confidence of 0.167 but if the horse prefers the the ground on that day i will change the confidence from 0.167 to maybe 0.177 then that will change my true odds from a 100% book hope u get what i mean lol. cheers
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the new one
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:46 pm
any more input about the original post from any one
cheers
cheers