I have been doing much research into trading and have a decent knowledge of the industry and will be giving scalping/ swing trading on the horse racing a shot in the coming weeks once i set up my office and get decent video of ATR and RUK into it.
What i have been wondering is when one is scalping/ swing trading/and greens up but then a horse is withdrawn at the start at say a deduction of 20%.
Or worse i am in the middle of a trade and the market suspends for a withdrawal. Could this have a devestating affect on my trade and wipe out a bank?
And if this happens, how to avoid it and to cope with it?
Thanks alot
For example
Non Runners during trade - How to deal with them?
It wont wipe your entire bank out but you do have to be careful. If your listening to live commentary and you know a horse is going to be withdrawn then it makes good sense to close any trades and keep your powder dry. You can gain as well as lose out on these if you get out after suspension, or even green up after suspension, and how much you win / lose will depend very much on the price of the horse (the lower it is, the greater the effect.) I can't honestly think of a scenario of the top of my head where it will wipe out your whole bank if you are prudent, although maybe it is theoretically possible if, for instance, the withdrawn runner is an odds on shot and you were to lay another horse before suspension and back in play at double the odds. In two years I've had a few ups and downs due to these, its almost inevitable you will be caught from time to time, but never enough to even come close to wiping out my whole bank (touch wood!)
If the horse you were trading is withdrawn all dets are voided so you lose nothing. If you were on a different horse, all matched bets are reduced by the reduction factor of the horse that was withdrawn, (which can be found by clicking the chart link for any runner on the betfair website).
So if you have closed all trades no worries as back and lay will be reduced by the same%, if a horse is withdrawn and market suspended mid trade, the market will normally reform close to what the odds should be minus the reduction factor. So you should be able to close out not far from the reduced value of your first bet.
So if you have closed all trades no worries as back and lay will be reduced by the same%, if a horse is withdrawn and market suspended mid trade, the market will normally reform close to what the odds should be minus the reduction factor. So you should be able to close out not far from the reduced value of your first bet.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
The one time when you see people losing a lot is when people close out a trade i/r but there has been a W/D before the off but the selection hasn't been removed from the market for example if it happens at the last minute while loading.
The prerace trade is reduced by the RF but the i/r bet obviously isn't reduced. There was someone on the forum not that long ago claiming they had been robbed by BF but the above was what had happened, I have seen this happen to people quite a few times and it has always been to people with no pictures and not listening to a commentary.
The prerace trade is reduced by the RF but the i/r bet obviously isn't reduced. There was someone on the forum not that long ago claiming they had been robbed by BF but the above was what had happened, I have seen this happen to people quite a few times and it has always been to people with no pictures and not listening to a commentary.