Hi
Can anyone please explain why odds can appear to go out when the WOM is showing well less than 50% and vice versa. I have always understood that only WOM can cause movement.
Many thanks.
Johnboy
Movement of Odds
WOM only takes into account the amount of money displayed on the ladder at that particular instance in time.
Some of that money could be placed there with the intention of getting matched, but a lot of it could be placed for distraction (from a few milliseconds to a few seconds). This causes slight distortion in the way WOM can be interpreted.
Also, WOM does not account for any orders that may hit the market at best market price (i.e. taking money). These order have a direct impact on the price movement without showing any traces/warnings in WOM.
Add to that the effect of Cross-matching. E.g. WOM on the 3rd runner could be well below 50% indicating a potential steam, but if gambles begin to land on the fav then the 3rd fav will more likely drift, disregarding the WOM.
Price movement can be triggered by a number of factors that may not be visible in WOM, such as:
But that is not to disregard WOM as a useful indicator, just don't use it exclusively to make a decision.
Have a look here to see when WOM can be useful:
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=6916&start=30#p63262
Some of that money could be placed there with the intention of getting matched, but a lot of it could be placed for distraction (from a few milliseconds to a few seconds). This causes slight distortion in the way WOM can be interpreted.
Also, WOM does not account for any orders that may hit the market at best market price (i.e. taking money). These order have a direct impact on the price movement without showing any traces/warnings in WOM.
Add to that the effect of Cross-matching. E.g. WOM on the 3rd runner could be well below 50% indicating a potential steam, but if gambles begin to land on the fav then the 3rd fav will more likely drift, disregarding the WOM.
Price movement can be triggered by a number of factors that may not be visible in WOM, such as:
- Orders hitting the market at Best Market Price e.g. Outright Gambles
- Cross-Matching
- Price movement of front runner (or joint fav's influencing each others price movement)
- Betfair API playing up (I remember a spike of 50 ticks last December due to API problem)
- Market participants like Spoofer, Bomber, Late Layer
But that is not to disregard WOM as a useful indicator, just don't use it exclusively to make a decision.
Have a look here to see when WOM can be useful:
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=6916&start=30#p63262
Hi Johnboy
There are people who think WOM is an excellent indicator and people who think it is about as useful as a chocolate fireguard, but no-one regards it as a foolproof indicator (there is no such thing).
Movements in price are caused by changes in supply and demand, which are not always reflected in the WOM.
You might like this thread on WOM: viewtopic.php?f=17&t=6916&hilit=WOM
Jeff
There are people who think WOM is an excellent indicator and people who think it is about as useful as a chocolate fireguard, but no-one regards it as a foolproof indicator (there is no such thing).
Movements in price are caused by changes in supply and demand, which are not always reflected in the WOM.
You might like this thread on WOM: viewtopic.php?f=17&t=6916&hilit=WOM
Jeff
johnboy wrote:Hi
Can anyone please explain why odds can appear to go out when the WOM is showing well less than 50% and vice versa. I have always understood that only WOM can cause movement.
Many thanks.
Johnboy