The Art of Misdirection

[switesh]

Recently while pondering about the decisions that lead to my bad entry points in UK pre-off trading, I got a bit diverted to these series of videos by Apollo Robbins. The concepts he discusses are very applicable to trading.

I highly recommend you watch these short videos (and then relate them to how various participants in the market perform misdirection to prey on the vulnerable):
Apollo Robbins on Focus: http://goo.gl/alVzpN
Apollo Robbins on Fear: http://goo.gl/OQieli
Apollo Robbins on Persuasion: http://goo.gl/91ByHg
Apollo Robbins on Time: http://goo.gl/O6frFR


These quotes left an impression on me:

I can use fear to influence them, if I code it and hide it well enough.

Any time you feel like you're being pulled into a situation, like you're being persuaded to do something and you're not quite sure about it. A lot of the times the difficulty in influence, or any negotiation, or persuasion is when you feel the inability to walk away.
As long as you maintain the ability that you can step back out of the situation, you stay in control; - but as soon as you become so invested or locked into an idea that you find seductive, then that means you've lost control, and now the other person is steering the boat.

The big blocks of money, the flashing money, the spoofer that turns out real, the gamble that is vigorously opposed, the sharp reversals, the false breakouts - all leaves you guessing and confused, and by the time you've made up your mind the move's already taken place, or time's run out on you.

Here's an example from a trade where I traded the 3rd runner to a very big loss and was unsure why, until I replayed the video a few times today and took a look at what was happening on the fav.

I encourage all traders to share screenshots or videos of tricks that they've been susceptible to, or may have noticed in the market.

[henryluca]

My success arises simply from the veiwpoint that in an alternative universe betfair is called ...."opposite day".

Has many similarities to those characteristics mentioned by you.

[Euler]

I spend a lot of my time on the market watching this guy and reading what he is doing. If you do that you can spot the opportunities underneath it. Nobody is immune to market pressure, no matter how much money you have so if you participate in and around this guy that's no problem. You just don't want to take a lead from him.

[Euler]

I've been analysing the patterns he leaves, I was half thinking of putting a tool in Bet Angel to highlight him when he is present in the market.

[steven1976]

Switesh there is 585 pounds at 4s. What would you do? Probably best to ask what people would do to open the discussion.

1) Stay out of it,
2) Add to the lay thinking he's bluffing
3) Add to the back

If it is 2 or 3 would be looking for a swing or scalp?

For the record, if I saw that I'd be all over it. I'd be adding a back on top of the 20 grand, laying at 4s and laying at 3.95. I may also stick double my entry at 4.2s so I can scratch at 4.1. I'd be playing for peanuts but it looks to much fun to not get involved and just let them hold down the market long enough to sell on some money.

[switesh]

Switesh there is 585 pounds at 4s. What would you do? Probably best to ask what people would do to open the discussion.

1) Stay out of it,
2) Add to the lay thinking he's bluffing
3) Add to the back

I have the benefit of hindsight here, but my inclination would still have been to lay the fav. My point of entry would be at 4 or 3.95 in anticipation of the bluff with Stop-loss at 3.75 in-case the bluff was on me. As for how far it would drift I would have no clue, I'd simply watch the money move around and make decisions along the way to decide where to exit.

Though I think this was a slightly easy example. I'll post scenarios that more tricky (at least to me) soon.

You do make a good suggestion Steven, it'd be nice to hear what other traders make of it.

[steven1976]

If you just put in a single lay in you have your pants down unless you are confident it's worth laying for a swing trade. Don't just put it in because you think it's a bluff I'd say. I made an example that I would put a second lay just behind it at 3.95 to get in the queue so if they took me at 4s (as I'd expect) then I'm in a good position to scratch at 4s and add to 4s so I'm both side of the book. Maybe it wouldn't be a perfect second position at 3.95s when 20k is against you because the market has took on a decent bet so if you lay more it could get nasty, but expect it.

In hindsight I'd say someone actually laid a reasonable amount between 3.45 and 3.50 mins rather than offer to the market and someone is trying to hold the market and sell it before they have to accept a loss and find some buyers at a loss.

Just my ramblings! I'd say they are working on the fear link you posted but I can't view it at the moment as I'm in the stix and the internet is to slow.

[Zenyatta]

I've noticed a lot of similarities between trading and poker.

In poker, position is important...it is much harder to play when you have to move early, because the players that act later have access to additional information about what the earlier players did. To act early, you have to be very confident.

Then, the choice of raise, call or fold in poker is like taking a position in trading; if the market moves against you, what will you do? Raise? (Slam even more in), Call? (Hold your position), or Fold? (Red up).
Someone slams in a big trade. Is it a bluff? (A bet not based on any real information). Or does he know something (he really does have a strong hand)?

Entry points for UK Horse Racing:

Big Feature races: Somewhere between 50-60 minutes
Swing Trades: Somewhere between 10-15 minutes
Other markets: Somewhere between 4-5 minutes

[switesh]

Entry points for UK Horse Racing:
Big Feature races: Somewhere between 50-60 minutes
Swing Trades: Somewhere between 10-15 minutes
Other markets: Somewhere between 4-5 minutes

Your time-frames are quite generous to mine (but that's only my personal preference).

Especially since I've begun to take notice of some really big and wild swings that kick-off with less than 5-3 minutes to go, or quite often at post-time. As an opportunist I seek just that split-second of active trading time.

Therefore, even as a swing trader I usually do not open positions any further out than 5 minutes. I find the further out I go in time, or the earlier I begin to trade, the more room for blunder there is. I also find it harder to manage risk because fill-rate is lower the further out you go in time.

As a desk trader I have no inside information and know/care nothing about form, or 'actual chance', or 'value' etc... whatsoever.
I trade based on what I see in front of me, therefore by trading to a much shorter time-frame allows me to remain slightly detached from the early maneuvers.

But I guess the picture changes completely if you know something (inside information, or connections from big money, or form student, or value seeker, etc). In that case, time works to your advantage and you're less prone to deception or misdirection in the market because you already know the direction and price beforehand.

[switesh]

Here's an interesting one from Ayr that I traded yesterday.
Anybody else noticed it?

[switesh]

Here's a good one about perception.

I didn't realise this when I was trading it today but only when I watched my recording I found this fella.

Either he panicked, causing me to panic, or he had me fooled for good.

23Oct2013 Geelong Listed 1:35

[Euler]

There are some warning signs in there. You are at the top of a trading range and there isn't a great deal of money in the market and none matched above the current price. So that amount of money, in a uniform manner, has be viewed a bit suspiciously.

I'll often look above and below current price to understand how stable or unbalanced the market is. But you have to discount money the further away it is and even more is there has been no money matched at those prices.

[steven1976]

You did well getting out switesh or you wouldn't have seen that little fella come back in until the last furlong if it had any chance what so ever. It would have been slopped about backwards and forwards by the same entity around 7.4 until a new price bracket of matched money was formed and then new money enters to sell out. That's how I read it anyway. I agree it was the same person even though it shows as matched amounts.

[steven1976]

Would have been nice if it had ran a couple of seconds longer as well switesh. I'm guessing once fully redded out the backers came back in?

I'd actually say this is a good example of what i believe is the biggest tool available for traders with a decent bank to use. Okay they take on risk but hopefully shows a good example of synthetic trading to give an edge in the market. If the money just shows as someone dropping it, then it creates a different impression to the market than showing as matched bets.

This was a 6/1 shot so the last thing you probably really wanted was for it to go in play. If it did, you would probably sell out at the first sign of green in play for a tiny profit? However, you probably wouldn't see any green until very late in the race on ausy racing and if it has no chance then...... That's how I see it anyway.

It can also be used for other sports as well. Imagine in play football queing up a load of cash at 1.15,1.16,1.17,1.18,1.19,1.20 for example and then seeing someone put 5k lay on top of 1.2. By smashing through the lot with 50k taking out their 5k and 20 k of your own and leaving 25k on the back at 1.14, you could create a lot of fear quickly. That's just one random mental example but hopefully explains what I talk about with self matching bets and their possible use. In theory im certain its possible. In practice possible?

[PeterLe]

I agree with the two other replies..but just to add: I try not to trade an odds cross over point, unless I lay first..