There has been a withdrawal this morning so the early prices are a bit unsettled. I would price Investment Expert at 4.0 if I was compiling a 100% book so anything above that level is value IMHO. I have grabbed some small amounts around 5.20-5.40 as I think they'll make this horse the favourite later.
So why this horse?
Well he suffered the indignity of losing his crown jewels
as he appeared to have focus/temperament issues. He won his maiden and then lost his jewels. He was looking progressive each time but then he looked a bit dodgy in his last race. I noted him carrying his head to one side and pulling slightly as if he didn't really want to race or didn't understand what he was supposed to be doing. I didn't back him that day but noted his potential.He then made his handicap debut and finished 2nd, I traded him pre-race and also had a back to lay interest. I traded out at 1.5 in running and he actually went 1.29!! Now why am I interested in a horse who won his maiden looking dodgy then finished only 2nd on his handicap debut? Well the handicap was a slowly run affair and he was also a bit tardy at the start. He came with a late run but couldn’t get there. He showed no greenness or attitude in that race which hopefully suggests his mind is on his job now the crown jewels have gone! He is bred to get 10f and I think in a true run race we will see th best of him. I feel sure there is improvement in him. Paradise Watch is likely to be close to the front as is Lunar Deity and Cono Zur. This is important as falsely run races often produce false results so I feel this will be run at a better pace.
How should we play?
I am NOT saying this horse will win! I am saying this horse should run well and go close to winning. He traded 1.29 in his last race and that was an unsuitable affair! My aim is to back him pre-race and then trade out in running. Now I have taken ~5.20 so if they smash him into 4.3-4.5 pre-race I may close out and take the profit. I will need to get some more money matched to make it worthwhile.
I cannot tell you what price to trade out at and I cannot advise you on how the IR prices are likely to shape up. This is not a horse that goes to the front normally so we should expect to see him settled in the rear or mid-division and produced at, or, around the 2f marker according to how the race pans out. If it is a true run race then perhaps he’ll be produced closer to the 1f marker! So if he settles in behind and his price drifts slightly then do not panic and take a loss – easier said than done I know! I think if you aim for around 2.0 you will be unlucky not to get it. He could well go much lower but obviously the lower your request the longer you have to wait and the greater the chance you will not be matched.
I really think he’ll go close BUT, sensible stakes and enjoy it!
JG
