The nights are drawing in so we get the evening racing at Kempton and Wolverhampton to aim at. I recorded a video of me trading the 18:10 at Wolverhampton tonight....well I thought I did only to realise I had not pressed record!!
I was trading from the end of the 17:40 and simply used £5 and £10 stakes until about 10 minutes before the start of the race. I ended up with £6 green. Okay so not a massive return but I only did it to get a feel for what was happening in the hope it may then benefit some of the newer traders. I have watched evening markets like this before but I wanted to do it just before I wrote this post so I can have fresh thoughts in my mind.
As soon as the preceding race finished it was obvious that some traders and perhaps some BOTS switched their focus to the next race. It may seem a bit crazy to start 30 minutes out but clearly it is happening. As the money doesn't carry a "human" or "BOT" tag I cannot be certain who was offering the money. What I noticed was even at that early stage there was plenty of spoof money around. Often it was separated by 1 tick and as soon as the front amount was matching the whole lot would disappear. This just kept occurring but what surprised me was the large amounts going through the market. There were plenty of £2K £3K and £4K amounts and they were thrown in either way above or way below the offer prices. The market did settle back down but if you had been scalping then it would have been a worrying sphincter moment!!
It seems to have a start, middle and end section of early trading before the prices from the course come through and other players join the market. Yes I know that sounds a bit obvious but I'm not sure what else to say. My specialist subject "Statin' the bleedin' obvious!!"
The money flow rose just as the preceding race finished and it lasted about 3-4 minutes. It then died away and the larger bets then started pushing the price around. That then died off and the market settled again with fairly simple movement resumed.So what does that mean? If you time it correctly you can often move in and steal a couple of ticks but as soon as you see the money increase it becomes very hairy!! If you have a strong nerve you can often watch how the spikes drive the price up and/or down and then place small orders close to the high and low. I find that quite often another little burst of money will occur and the pattern will repeat. I would not advise trading too close to the offer price when the large orders come through, it is better to sit out of the money and let the market find you. That way if your order is matched you should get time to assess your position and decide if you should cut out or hold on. With practice this can work but if you're too close to the offer price then you'll find yourself in trouble as it can move straight through in the blink of eye.
When the market starts to build you can often find the trend is more apparent if you have been watching how the money has been changing the prices.
In the phases I suggest the following
1. Early: Expect a few 2 3 or 4 tick moves as fresh money enters the market. Do not scalp here, try and look for the edges and take 3-4 ticks. You will have to give it time to match your orders so use small stakes.
2. Middle: This is where large lumps seem to hit the market so stay away unless you can see a pattern. If you can then place small orders 5 6 or even 7 ticks away from the offer price. If you get matched you are likely to make a profit if you fail to get matched then you have lost nothing! NOTE: If you have enough money in your bank then do not cancel the orders, keep them in the market as this should give you an excellent queue position. When the price, or should I say if the price comes to your order it can mean you can place an order just before your queued order and this will offer a good chance of a profit as it should match your initial order quickly as you'll be very near the front of the queue if not at the front!
3. Late. This is close to the period where other players come to the market so be patient and watch as battle between backers and layers ensues. If you see pattern then place an order but if it is skittish and movements are violent then keep watching and wait for it to settle. You will find that the more you watch the more confident you will be of placing an order in the correct place.
Sorry if that's a bit jumbled, I wrote it on the fly without preparation. Please feel free to contribute or ask questions, I will try and answer.
JG
