Perhaps I haven't been looking hard enough, but it seems to me that the WOM calculation is not explained properly. The calculations are based on the figures in the settings file, which by default are set to (broadly) 1/3 of the values for each of the top three prices, which I would have thought is incorrect. It seems to me that the weighting applied to the current price should be more than the second price which in turn should be more than the third and so on. Surely the calculation should also be based on more than the top three prices.
Another observation is that not only is the percentage value relevant, but surely, also the absolute value of the WOM in £ is relevant and the relationship of that figure to the total amount matched in the race at any given point.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
Weight of Money
Hi Darksatanic
You can change the WOM settings from the default if you wish to give more weight to the money at the back and lay prices nearest to the price action.
Approach WOM with caution - as with any tool, you need to know how to use it (which is something you'll have to work out for yourself, as no-one is going to give away their secrets).
Note also that there is a school of thought that says that WOM has no predictive value whatsoever. I know someone who crunched the data and found no overall correlation between WOM and price movements.
Jeff
You can change the WOM settings from the default if you wish to give more weight to the money at the back and lay prices nearest to the price action.
Approach WOM with caution - as with any tool, you need to know how to use it (which is something you'll have to work out for yourself, as no-one is going to give away their secrets).
Note also that there is a school of thought that says that WOM has no predictive value whatsoever. I know someone who crunched the data and found no overall correlation between WOM and price movements.
Jeff
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DarkSatanic
- Posts: 9
- Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:43 am
Hi Jeff,
Thanks for the info.
I suspected that was the case.
I have the feeling that the WOM %, in itself, does not have that much impact, however you weight it, but that the absolute value of the money on each side of the ladder carries more importance. I have seen a quote somewhere on the forum which says that you only use the WOM if the value is over 70% and you have £3k or more pushing it. I don't know if there's any truth in that. If so then the figure of £3k will change depending on the value of the race.
After all WOM is only one of the many indicators that needs to be considered.
Cheers
Ged
Thanks for the info.
I suspected that was the case.
I have the feeling that the WOM %, in itself, does not have that much impact, however you weight it, but that the absolute value of the money on each side of the ladder carries more importance. I have seen a quote somewhere on the forum which says that you only use the WOM if the value is over 70% and you have £3k or more pushing it. I don't know if there's any truth in that. If so then the figure of £3k will change depending on the value of the race.
After all WOM is only one of the many indicators that needs to be considered.
Cheers
Ged