I like to scour the cards (when I can) to find horses which I believe may attract support. I cannot be correct each time but they do offer chances to ride a trend in.
There is one tomorrow called Next Sensation Newcastle 13:45 and he could be backed again. Last time out (LTO) he waltzed home at Plumpton and won with plenty left in the tank. He's been bumped up the handicap but I still think he can win from his current mark. Now we are not looking for a gamble but that thought of a potential winner will encourage punters to back the proverbial "good thing" thus shrinking the price.
I am guessing slightly here but if 3.0 or 3.25 is on offer then it is value. If it opens 3.25 I could easily see it pushing below 3.0 perhaps closer to 2.90 If it opens around 2.90 then perhaps 2.66 could be the low. I think this will attract support as the opposition isn't up to much.
Now if you miss a trend or perhaps it doesn't behave as I expect then fear not! This horse jumps well, goes from the front and his price should therefore contract quite quickly. Just a word of caution and also a bit of information. Castlelawn, Mulligan's Man and Prince Tam are also known to race prominently so just bear that in mind. Prince Tam is out of the handicap so if he tears off the market will ignore him; famous last words!
Shadrack is a worthy opponent but he's been off the track for 574 days so he's clearly had a problem and may well need the run.
The others
Castlelawn - seems to run better in the summer. Also seems to run better 2nd time out within 14 days of LTO run. LTO was 30 days
Porgy - Running above his best winning mark and seems better going right handed. Never carried this much weight to victory before.
Mulligan's Man - Chance but never won a chase before. A weak finisher and I am not sure he will like this long uphill finish. He may travel well for a long way and his price could contract. As he tends to fold up like a cheap deckchair I think he could be a Lay to Back opportunity in running.
Alpha One - Poor jumper and ran over hurdles last time perhaps to get some confidence back? Cannot fancy this one on all known form BUT he can run well fresh. He will need to sharpen up his jumping though!
Prince Tam - Don't think this would win if it started now!
Small stakes and enjoy!
JG
Horses for money - chance to trade them!
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I wasn't too far off with my guess on the odds. I think 3.25 is a value price and if the money doesn't come as expected, anything above 3.25 is real value. If I was pricing this race I would only offer 2.50-2.66 I would not want to lay it above that level.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I have traded out of the race as Betfair appears to be dodgy at the moment!
The money has already driven the price into 2.88 so in true Dragon's Den style...."I'm out!"
The money has already driven the price into 2.88 so in true Dragon's Den style...."I'm out!"
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