Standing Ovation is allegedly 6lb ahead of the handicapper but 2.50-2.60 really is a pitiful price!
If I was to let you know this horse has never won a race left handed would you want to take ~2.60? I know I wouldn't!!
This horse has run 5 times left handed and not even made the places. Now obviously we have to think he wasn't at his best for those races or (coughs) perhaps he wasn't trying too hard...sacre bleu!! Anyway my experience has taught me to be wary of horses that display a preference for course direction.
There are two horses of interest to me
(1)Victrix Gale whose form looks (coughs again) well planned! This horse hacked up at Galway and then (cough) was buried at Listowel on his last run. The commentator said "Victrix Gale is 3rd from an impossible position" and he wasn't wrong. He was never put it in the race and IMHO he was ridden kindly at the finish. The conditions should suit and if I am correct in my assessment I can seeing him putting in a decent run
(2) Hunter's Lodge This is a genuine chasing horse from a local stable. Twiston-Davies loves Cheltenham and he likes to give his young jockeys a chance in races. This horse won here 28 days ago with a dogged run to get up on the line. The young pilot is capable and takes off a welcome 7lb. He is successful at the course, in this class and on this ground. He's only 7 which is relatively young for a chaser so he could have improvement in him. He can get outpaced but expect him to be running on when others are faltering.
Shape of the race
This could be vital for my two preferred horses as they both like to settle in behind and then come through at the end. I would expect Hunter's Lodge to be mid division and Victrix Gale to be in rear. However, do not be surprised to see Hunter's Lodge nearer the front if the pace is slow.
Standing Ovation will go from the front unless they suddenly change tactics. I wonder if he will handle the LH stiff undulations of Cheltenham and so I could not back him at the price.
Good luck if you play, small stakes and enjoy!
JG
Horses for courses - Cheltenham 13:05
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JollyGreen
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I don't have to bother now as the drift on Standing Ovation was most welcome.
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JollyGreen
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I wouldn't say more success but you are correct when you mention more money in the market.
I also mentioned Next Sensation 13:45 Newcastle which I backed at prices from 3.3 down to 3.1 and it's now into 2.90!
I also mentioned Next Sensation 13:45 Newcastle which I backed at prices from 3.3 down to 3.1 and it's now into 2.90!
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JollyGreen
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I think his biggest rival Taquin de Seuil may not like Cheltenham as he seems a leggy type built more for an easy flat course. I could be wrong but I cannot see the other two troubling Oscar Whisky.icarus121 wrote:Great stuff the Jolly!
Im glad your form is better than Hendersons..(last chase winners were 4/10 ,20/7, 28/05...)
Think im going to take on Oscar Whisky !!
Thanks as always sir,great pointers,hope you well.
J
If he stands up then he should win but I would rather watch than take a financial interest.
Think McCOY made the difference on that one JG...
Going in big E/W TOP GAMBLE
Being out of PRESENTING will be at best on the better ground.Sydney Melbourne is no slouch and got stuffed,albeit on heavy ground.
Fill your boots ,lift it over the line Conor!
Going in big E/W TOP GAMBLE
Being out of PRESENTING will be at best on the better ground.Sydney Melbourne is no slouch and got stuffed,albeit on heavy ground.Fill your boots ,lift it over the line Conor!
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JollyGreen
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Just a stupid ride from Geraghty who should've made it a true test. They'll say they needed a lead but when that didn't happen he should have kicked on. It turned into a farce as they hacked round for all but 3f and then had a sprint. How can that suit a horse they thought was a stayer over hurdles?icarus121 wrote:Think McCOY made the difference on that one JG...
Going in big E/W TOP GAMBLE
Fill your boots ,lift it over the line Conor!
I think in a true run race he would reverse the form with the winner.
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Dublin_Flyer
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Interesting you mention the left handed/right handed part in your first post JG. I have a few theories I'm trialing on horseracebase (by a few I had 75 at last check!)
One is to find trainers who are profitable to follow over a long term basis on right handed tracks, and another on left handed tracks. Working on the basis that if a horse is used to running left or right handed at home, then their natural preference will be to carry themselves the way they are familiar with in training, thus a stronger or more comfortable run.
Early days yet but the trainers who are best on "Lefties NH" have a 21% strike rate, "Righties NH" are 13%
Regarding places Lefties are 45%, Righties are 35%
I'm a gambler not a trader but if there's a good place rate it could be something for the lay to back people to have a look into.
One is to find trainers who are profitable to follow over a long term basis on right handed tracks, and another on left handed tracks. Working on the basis that if a horse is used to running left or right handed at home, then their natural preference will be to carry themselves the way they are familiar with in training, thus a stronger or more comfortable run.
Early days yet but the trainers who are best on "Lefties NH" have a 21% strike rate, "Righties NH" are 13%
Regarding places Lefties are 45%, Righties are 35%
I'm a gambler not a trader but if there's a good place rate it could be something for the lay to back people to have a look into.