Poisson distribution

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

Hi there I'm wondering if anyone uses poisson distribution to predict outcomes of games, in addition, I understand that poissen underestimates the draw , if so, what correction factor do u add to the odds?

Plz feel free to let me know the pros and cons of poisson?
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

See: -

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=8630
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burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

Good article Euler, since I am not a statistician I will throw a guess at what you are referring to, that the correction can be made for the draw by using maximum liklihood estimation MLE?
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

If I may briefly interject on behalf of the Anal Brigade.

Poisson.
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