Market observations - please comment

[woohoojd]

I would like to make some observations I have made on various sporting markets and ask for people to comment with their opinions in agreement or disagreement. Many thanks in advance for your contributions.

Football - Match odds

Very hard to trade in my opinion. Market is über efficient. Could look at taking advantage of overreactions post events but very hard to do without specialist bots. Possible value in laying the dog if take the lead such as in Swansea v Hull last night. Very hard to find value though as often the market will revert to a fair price. Think a system could work for this market i.e. find a situation or circumstance where strike rate better than implied probability (such as laying away team dogs when price hits X). Or think you would need to be able to rank teams and effectively come up with your own odds to compare to the market and therefore work out where there was value. Unsure where you would begin in order to formulate these rankings.

Football - Over 2.5

Think this is more tradeable. Scalp couple of ticks when ball is out of play etc. Seems like would need to turnover large amounts to make work. Or possibly adopt a system approach again such as pick matches where think there will be goals (maybe any market where over 2.5 is 1.6 or below as a starting point) and back when price goes above 2.5 / 3 then green or red when goal goes in or X time passed. Think would need some trial and error to find best matches.

Tennis - Match odds

Very volatile so good trading. Many different approaches. Think need to know players or know when the odds are out of sync with where should be. For example match involving Kerber and Niculescu this year. Niculescu wins first set 6-0 so price steams in way too much as people think its a sure thing. Kerber promptly destroys her. Other people back and lay on point by point basis. Others back or lay servers depending on the player. Others back when break down or set down and lay off if even up. Again some trial and error to find what is profitable long term.

Snooker - Match odds

Very similar to tennis but not as good liquidity. Have definite price brackets depending on frame score and match length. If player steams or drifts outside these brackets then market enters value trading prices. Could also adopt system where lay player at the table as the price drops substantially when they are amongst the balls but one miss and it switches very substantially.

Darts - Match odds

Similar to snooker as missing a double can leave the opponent to take the leg. Huge shifts if break the throw so could lay the thrower similar to laying the server in tennis. Darts players are expected to hold throw so odds reflect this.

Horse racing - Win market pre off

This is probably the best trading market and hence why it is so often discussed. Not something I have looked at it detail as I have little interest in horse racing. Appears that price is much more dependent on other traders / punters so the key is to focus more on where money is moving, considering spoof money and observing the overround. This is pure trading and requires a very sound knowledge of how price can be influenced.

I think next year I might try to crack horse racing as it looks to be very profitable once you gain experience of the markets and their reactions.