After Linus asked me about RH and LH courses I thought I would quickly highlight some things about the 13:50 Fakenham 17/12/13
I am not suggesting for one minute this is definitive but it is the sort of information you need if you want to form a tissue price and then bet or lay horses.
Fakenham is a tight track where horses always seem to be on the turn. It therefore suits agile horses as opposed to big raw boned galloping types.
The Thirsty Bricky is the early market favourite but a few things would concern me. He seems to do all his best running in the Spring and has only won once in February when the weather should hopefully be improving. He seems to prefer softer ground and Fakenham drains quickly and doesn't often have soft ground. He has won once in this class of race and has not won beyond 2m 1/2f! He runs into a place so he's consistent from that point of view but he struggles to get his head in front. All of his wins have been on heavy although his win at Sedgefield 04/03/12 was shown as good on the official going the ground was heavy based on race times. He is now 11 so there is unlikely to be that much improvement in him.
So when you can see all those negatives you have to wonder if 2/1 with the bookies and 3.4 on Betfair represents a good value price? I would price this horse at 9/2 - 5/1 so 2/1 and 3.4 are very skinny and you would need a leap of faith to take those odds.
Can he win? Yes of course he can but I would not pay to find out at the odds on offer and I would be a layer.
This is a tricky race but if forced to chose I would consider a back to lay on Flaming Gorge. He goes hard from the front and Fakenham suits front running tactics. The horse I think will go closest to winning could be San Telm. He needs to improve his jumping of fences but he has a win at Fakenham over hurdles and the fences here are a bit easier than most. I wouldn't be surprised to see this horse attract support.
My two against The Thirsty Bricky would be Flaming Gorge and San Telm....that or lay The Thirsty Bricky!
Good luck
JG
Course type - finding an edge 13:50 Fakenham 17/12/13
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Last edited by JollyGreen on Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Great, I hope you enjoy it. I write these posts to create interest and help people to understand what is happening in the markets.small fry wrote:Cheers JollyGreen i will watch that race with interest..
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Yes, I can understand anyone bailing on that one. Ironically his form was better going RH but I had hoped as we were only looking for a back to lay he would be okay. He ran okay considering his attempts to join the crowd and when he does go RH he is one to keep an eye on!small fry wrote:Nice one JollyGreen done the back to lay but got out to early cause of the way it was jumping but a small green is better than any red..