Project start

[JollyGreen]

Hi

Thanks to all who contacted me. I am feeling a little today so I am going to make a public post rather than e-mail people.

The first race of interest today is the 12:50 Ludlow. There has been a stack of money for Benbens who returns after a 609 day absence This trainer has a very good record with this type of horse running under these conditions. The money suggests others have picked up on this and the price has contracted.

In this race there is also a BTL horse in Drumlang who has drifted like a barge from ~5.0 to ~17! This horse won very well last time out and he's only gone up 7lb in the handicap. His young jockey has a 5lb claim so that should help. I feel this horse should run well and while he may not win his price really should contract. He seems to prefer RH tracks and Ludlow is a RH track. Benbens has no real form RH so that is a concern for me.

The Newbury 14:45 also has a horse of interest in the shape of Tistory. His trainer Nicky Henderson has a good record with horses of this type especially at this time of the year. The market has been slightly mental on this one as the price has been driven into ~2.50 which is a bit skinny. I expect some support for Broomfield so hopefully Tistory will push out towards 3.0 and even bigger if we're lucky. This is another BTL chance as I expect this horse to go very close and thus contract in price. You may find a pre-race chance if the market opens at ~3.0 as I think the price will be driven below 3.0 perhaps back towards the 2.50 mark.

There are lots of chances in these two races so my request is as follows. Play the markets in the style that suits you. Please let me know how you felt it went and include any positive or negative comments. I don't need to know financial amounts, that is personal and is your business only.

I know that some like to back and others like to lay so with multiple participants I should get a varied view which allows me to tweak things.

Good luck, please use small stakes or money you are comfortable with. Above all things, ENJOY it!

[JollyGreen]

The 14:45 behaved pretty much as I expected thus far although the drift out to >3.5 is quite strange. I am in at 3.5 for a back to lay and topped up a little at 3.7 as I expect this to contract.

As ever, there is no guarantee in racing but if we can back horses like this at a price above the true value IMHO then we will win long term.

As mentioned I did expect support for Broomfield but not as much as this!

[JollyGreen]

Well I confess to being perplexed on this one. The support for Bloomfield was mental and I think the lemmings joined in. I did back Tistory at 4.5 for more money as this basically was the wrong price IMHO.

As this was a BTL opportunity and all stats pointed to a good run I was very happy by the extra price on offer.

Obviously some of you may not have felt so comfortable when the drift came but as I said I cannot tell you what you are happy with. As it is a BTL we sometimes have to hold our nerve and be prepared to get it wrong. That is why I always mention small stakes or money you are comfortable to lose. Now I am not out to help you lose but often you have to be prepared to lose a few.

In running this price soon contracted and was odds on for a long time with a fair portion of the race to run. It touched a low of 1.2 so there was plenty of chance to trade out even if you were in at 3.0-3.30 pre-race.

Please provide feedback on here as this will help me and also help you as I may be able to explain more about how I play them.

PS I traded out at 1.6 and also grabbed the screen shot of the in-running chart.

Tistory.png

[small fry]

I lost a few quid on the drift but made it all back on the BTL on at 4.2 and out at 2.3, i did see it went into 1.2. The first one was all messed up with the API not working..

[JollyGreen]

I lost a few quid on the drift but made it all back on the BTL on at 4.2 and out at 2.3, i did see it went into 1.2. The first one was all messed up with the API not working..

Nice one! Yeah the first horse was withdrawn so it all went out of the window. Add into the mix the API issues and it was a non-starter...please forgive the pun!

[small fry]

Nice one! Yeah the first horse was withdrawn so it all went out of the window. Add into the mix the API issues and it was a non-starter...please forgive the pun![/quote]

[ChrisCGN]

Sorry, I did not monitor the forum today as I was travelling to a customer. I expected further instructions via email.
I'll check this forum from tomorrow Thursday onwards and I'll give feedback.

Chris

[Online Trader]

I missed this one too, will keep an eye on the thread today

[icarus121]

With the API issues early on yesterday ,spent some time on the DIY xmas list.
Look forward to todays posts in more depth ,and hope able to give some positive feedback JG.

[dmbusa]

same as icarus121 left nf alone yesterday with the api issues

[icarus121]

As always SPOT ON DAVE .in @ 6.2 out at below 2.0

[icarus121]

The Great Giant.... If i my, could i throw my 2 pence into the mix with regard to my reading of the 3.40.

Bearing in mind it is your good self that has directed me in my race reading over the last 2 yrs ,i have to be with BALLYHOLLOW.Which i guess may push the other out.

My thinking is }R Curtis running well,Jockey ok, ,Pedigree of NO PUSHOVER suspect/heavy unknown?, BALLYHOLLOW being out of beat hollow wont mind heavy,Form of last BALLYHOLLOW race cant be franked as no runners,so this i see as the only downside.

My thinking is BALLYHOLLOW will be bet ( 6/4 or about s. p.),and go close ,might get mugged by outsider ,but 3rd favs trainer 2 in 32 (30 days) ,so could be other?

I guess it is between the two ,value wise for me anything above 3.0 is a steal,which may cause NO PUSHOVER TO DRIFT,even if Henderson has had 1 runner 1 winner already.

Hope to get some feedback from yourself sir that i will apply to my thinking after the race ,as i am an eager pupil.


REGARDS

JD

[JollyGreen]

It will be interesting what connections say about No Pushover. She seemed to handle the ground rather than enjoy it and was outpaced as they turned for home. As I mentioned in the update, the ground is very soft and that has thrown up some strange results today. No excuses though as Ballyhollow won fair and square.

On better ground I think we would see No Pushover reverse the form.

[ChrisCGN]

Lesson learned: The more informed you are, the better the results.

Thanks to JG I had the best day in my horseracing-carreer until now. Althoug I still use small stakes, the percentage of hits was great.

Does anyone understand how the odds were moving at the 18.00 1m Mdn Stks race? The fav (Damascene, 39% of money) drifted and I could not figure out why. The second (Billy Blue, another 30% of money) was stable and the others did not come in either...

Best regards,

Chris

[LinusP]

Thanks for your information yesterday it was very helpful and turned the £5 I made on the betfair offer into £20 so can't complain!

What sort of feedback do you want from us? I really like how you you back up what you think will happen with facts and the prices the horses should be. My only problem is that I never watch the races just the odds so I think I am going to experiment with automating your picks. By probably backing at SP for very small stakes and then going for a percentage before greening.