What if I have found my edge
Right forum once again I think I may have found my 'edge' in horse racing (how many times have I said that I wonder). Now having been here a while now I have seen posts before about others being warned off by other operators saying we dont want your business. What is the likelihood of Betfair doing this do you think. I would say that they probably wont be bothered as long as they get there commission, but as you regulars will know I am really wanting trading to be a replacement for my present business so would appreciate your thoughts.
If you regularly pay them comm (and even better PC) they love that. Of course, from a customer service perspective that will not be admitted. And I've never understood why they don't embrace those that generate profit for betfair and create liquidity.
if you really do have an edge, congrats!
betfair won't close your account but, it's worth remembering, betfair also won't let accounts with edges function efficiently.
This exchange is no longer a true exchange, as "exhangers" have to carry 100% of losses while booking under 100% of profits. Long term no exchange in history has survived preventing true exchange, so betfair won't be around for much longer and you should factor that in to your plans
Good luck!
betfair won't close your account but, it's worth remembering, betfair also won't let accounts with edges function efficiently.
This exchange is no longer a true exchange, as "exhangers" have to carry 100% of losses while booking under 100% of profits. Long term no exchange in history has survived preventing true exchange, so betfair won't be around for much longer and you should factor that in to your plans
Good luck!
If you truly have found an edge, my advice would be to capitalise it as much as possible. That's one of my biggest regrets. You should use some of the profits to fund development in looking for the next edge(s) as it wont last forever. It's like developing anti biotics, you always have to stay one step in front.
You may find that one single idea can act as a catalyst from which many ideas can stem.
..and well done, because it ain't easy these days!!
You may find that one single idea can act as a catalyst from which many ideas can stem.
..and well done, because it ain't easy these days!!
I agree with that completely. I'm now on system number 8 and I've got another one ready to go, in case this one doesn't work out. It also eases the disappointment if things don't go to plan, by giving you something new to throw yourself into.PeterLe wrote:You should use some of the profits to fund development in looking for the next edge(s) as it wont last forever.
Thanks for replies everyone. There have been many stradgies since I have joined and I was just concerned that it could get skuppered in the last instance by the very people that have held my interest through this long process. Still a bit worried about Kelpies comments though? Why would BF not allow accounts with edges function efficiently?
It's all about thieving.rogerlisa wrote:Still a bit worried about Kelpies comments though? Why would BF not allow accounts with edges function efficiently?
In betfair's desired ecosystem (using their wankspeak), efficient traders are not desired because they take more than they give.
In betfair's desired ecosystem, "efficiency" (using the word loosely, "robbery" is better) is now reserved for betfair shareholders, who are the only ones allowed to take more than they give.
Hence, (a) the premiumn charge, which is thieving from the efficient minority; and (b), the search for mug punters, via Sportsbook, which is thieving from inefficient masses.
Hi Roger, I asked the same questions once and AndyFuller gave the best answer:
corbus wrote: "so why should Betfair throw me out if I won 100,000 a month? I'd be one that generates a lot of business for them and they'd earn 5000 from my work."
AnduFuller wrote:
The argument put forward is:
Lets assume you make £100,000 a month every month. So you make £1.2 million a year.
Lets assume you take that £1.2 million out of your Betfair account to spend on nice houses, fast boats and cars
Betfair have earned, to keep it simple, 5% commission = £60,000.
So Betfair now have made £60,000 from you and you have made £1.2 million before commission.
But the next year Betfair need to attract another £1.2 million into the exchange for you to win.
If it costs them £10,000 in say marketing to do this they have made £50,000 from you Net.
But if it costs them £60,000 to do this they make nothing from you.
If it costs them £120,000 to do this, it has actually cost them £60,000 to get the new £1.2 million into the exchange.
So on the face of it you may think you have earned Betfair £60,000 as you paid them that in commission but in fact you have actually cost them £60,000.
Now that is a simplistic view as the costs to Betfair and benefits are not as straight forward as I have made them out to be in the above, but hopefully the explanation helps you understand a bit better.
The ideal world for Betfair is if your £1.2 million stays in the exchange and keeps changing hands, they get 5% each time it changes hands and eventually they get the lot. So it is true Betfair want you to win, but they also want you to lose in equal proportions.
That is tough but makes sense.
corbus wrote: "so why should Betfair throw me out if I won 100,000 a month? I'd be one that generates a lot of business for them and they'd earn 5000 from my work."
AnduFuller wrote:
The argument put forward is:
Lets assume you make £100,000 a month every month. So you make £1.2 million a year.
Lets assume you take that £1.2 million out of your Betfair account to spend on nice houses, fast boats and cars
Betfair have earned, to keep it simple, 5% commission = £60,000.
So Betfair now have made £60,000 from you and you have made £1.2 million before commission.
But the next year Betfair need to attract another £1.2 million into the exchange for you to win.
If it costs them £10,000 in say marketing to do this they have made £50,000 from you Net.
But if it costs them £60,000 to do this they make nothing from you.
If it costs them £120,000 to do this, it has actually cost them £60,000 to get the new £1.2 million into the exchange.
So on the face of it you may think you have earned Betfair £60,000 as you paid them that in commission but in fact you have actually cost them £60,000.
Now that is a simplistic view as the costs to Betfair and benefits are not as straight forward as I have made them out to be in the above, but hopefully the explanation helps you understand a bit better.
The ideal world for Betfair is if your £1.2 million stays in the exchange and keeps changing hands, they get 5% each time it changes hands and eventually they get the lot. So it is true Betfair want you to win, but they also want you to lose in equal proportions.
That is tough but makes sense.
Betfair have earned roughly £400m or £0.4bn each year for the last few years in commission. £250m comes directly from sports markets. Betfair don't have a problem generating commission.
At the end of the lets not confuse things. Exchanges are one of few places where you wont get shut down for winning, though you may face higher charges eventually.
At the end of the lets not confuse things. Exchanges are one of few places where you wont get shut down for winning, though you may face higher charges eventually.
I don't think it's successful traders/gamblers that they have a problem with.... It's the consequence of traders who are (too) successful. Their success means more people lose a lot and if people lose too much, they'll leave.
Isn't it a bit like eBay or Amazon, who basically sit in between both sides of a trade/purchase? If either side of the transaction is getting consistently ripped off (non-delivery of goods or non-payment for goods) then the business model would fail.
Lots of people will gamble or trade, even if they lose, as long as the loses aren't too high. So, maybe the question isn't whether or not BF are happy to let people win, but *how much* can they win before they become a problem to the exchange ecosystem.
But.. liquidity comes from people who trade with lots of money and they won't do that unless the rewards are also high...
We can probably rely on BF to try and screw both sides in a short-sighted dash for maximum profits rather than long-term vision.
Edit: Hadn't read Corbus'/AndyFuller's msg, which is saying the same thing, but just puts it better than I did
Isn't it a bit like eBay or Amazon, who basically sit in between both sides of a trade/purchase? If either side of the transaction is getting consistently ripped off (non-delivery of goods or non-payment for goods) then the business model would fail.
Lots of people will gamble or trade, even if they lose, as long as the loses aren't too high. So, maybe the question isn't whether or not BF are happy to let people win, but *how much* can they win before they become a problem to the exchange ecosystem.
But.. liquidity comes from people who trade with lots of money and they won't do that unless the rewards are also high...
We can probably rely on BF to try and screw both sides in a short-sighted dash for maximum profits rather than long-term vision.
Edit: Hadn't read Corbus'/AndyFuller's msg, which is saying the same thing, but just puts it better than I did
Personally I don't traders are that much of a problem, it's people with an information edge. Either information that is not in the public domain, or people who are benefitting from seeing things before others.
Traders take such a tiny % return on the volume pumped into the market, they add substantial benefits through the provision of liquidity.
Traders take such a tiny % return on the volume pumped into the market, they add substantial benefits through the provision of liquidity.
Euler, have you expressed this view to betfair and if so what was their response?Euler » Tue Dec 24, 2013 9:52 am
Personally I don't traders are that much of a problem, it's people with an information edge. Either information that is not in the public domain, or people who are benefitting from seeing things before others.
Traders take such a tiny % return on the volume pumped into the market, they add substantial benefits through the provision of liquidity.
The perception is that successful traders are draining the pool.
So are you saying if the fast picture people and those with inside info were unable to make money on the exchanges, then companies such as betfair would be able to be sustainable without such things as the PC?
Simply put, kill off the inplay delay, make insider info on exchanges illegal then traders trade and back to 2% and 5% com....betfair make money?