Rio 2014

[Euler]

Now the domestic season is over, time to turn to the WC.

[Euler]

Cole not in England World Cup squad (Replaced by Shaw)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27368711

[woodhousejj]

Hi, this is my first world cup for trading - whats the expected liquidity - e.g. is it about the same as Premier League liqudity ?
Cheers,
John

[LeTiss]

Hi, this is my first world cup for trading - whats the expected liquidity - e.g. is it about the same as Premier League liqudity ?
Cheers,
John

The liquidity is very strong, but with BF having pulled out of some key football trading countries, the liquidity might not be as great as before

There used to be some massive traders based in Germany - when they had the WC in 2006 the markets were tremendous. Also, the kick-off times might have an impact on liquidity

[woodhousejj]

Thanks for the info LeTiss.
Regards
John

[sneakydog]

Hi All,

I'm looking to trade a few teams that i feel have a good chance of winning their groups or at least getting through the group stage with a view to trade out as the groups stage has finished.

This is my first World Cup in regards to trading and would like to get a feel as to how the market reacts to teams that look to qualify out of their respective groups?

The two teams at the minute i am looking at trading are England / Belgium.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

[Euler]

I've always laid England because they have been so short at World Cups. But this time around I think they are too big TBH. OK it may all fall flat on it's face, but if they escape the group stages the prices will surely contract?

Obviously lots of unknowns but I think there is scope to do something there. I think Belgium have been shortened enough already?

[speakers]

Is there likely to be a last minute rush to back England? I know the group is difficult but not sure what % of Betfair customers are British compared to other countries but thought it might make a difference.
Agree that the Belgium bet should have been quite a while ago...I backed them at 110 in November 2011...talk about long term trading!

[sneakydog]

Yeah I think i may have missed the boat on Belgium I was also looking at few other teams and also trying to find that one team that out plays their odds. Like i say its my first World Cup trading so at the min im just trying to find a few angles.

I will be looking to trade inplay markets especially the under 2.5 goals between 0-10 mins, inplay is risky but i expect a few games to have a cagey opening to the match. You can get a very good swing in that time. If an early goal is scored i tend to back an unders market 2 goals above like the 4.5 to redeem any red on the 2.5

[LeTiss]

I'm hoping the football will be better than South Africa 2010

Some of the games 4 years ago were painful to watch. In fact a number of games had pre-match odds of 1.80 - 2.00 for Over 1.5 goals, which is virtually unheard of on most football markets

[sneakydog]

WOW that is high for over 1.5 goals.

With the 2.5 as long as you don't get greedy and get out between 5-10 mins you can make a nice little profit though you do really need to be watching the game. Something else i noticed is backing unders just before HT but again giving yourself a 3 goal cushion so if its 1-0 back under 3.5 and the price will move through the half time around 5 ticks. I tend to leave 0-0 alone.

[LinusP]

Interesting news report on the World Cup, pubs, the government and betfair..


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27396376

[burdo77]

Do we get a higher occurrance of draws in the WC group stages?

My reasoning is that teams will be aiming to protect their goal difference.

Any thoughts?

[woodhousejj]

From my 2010 WC Wallchart - 14/48 group matches drawn - of which 6 were 0-0. Unfortunately did not capture the FT scores for the 16 knock out games.
Regards
John

[burdo77]

It's hard to draw any trends from that data, you would need more samples.

Still interesting though!