Handicap races - their trading characteristics.

[JollyGreen]

In the last post I looked at horses starting out in racing or progressing from the bumper race (National Hunt flat) to a hurdle or from a hurdle to chase. This is a natural progression for most National Hunt or flat bred horses. Occasionally you will see certain horses that simply cannot take to obstacles, sometimes it is a horse coming from the flat who simply cannot jump efficiently. You also find horses that do not successfully move from hurdles into chases. A couple of exceptional horses spring to mind, Istabraq the champion hurdler and almost unbeatable on his day and Big Buck's who simply never took to fences. There are plenty more but I am sure you get the idea.

Now we reach the dreaded handicap system and in this article I will not bother going into great depth. You may recall my comment about connections being the only people aware of the new horses potential. After the horse has run three races it can be allocated a handicap mark. This mark can be allocated earlier should the horse win a race or finish second during its debut runs such that the handicapper can make a sound judgement. There are many intricacies to a new handicap mark and I don't want to go into great detail as it is unnecessary.

The handicap mark itself determines the supposed ability of the horse. Sadly, it is not that easy and here are a few reasons why. Is the horse running on the correct ground? Is the horse running the correct distance? Is the horse running in the correct direction, right-handed or left-handed? Is the horse really trying? The latter is a thorny subject! So with this in mind you can see how difficult it is to truly determine the ability of a relatively new horse. You will often hear these horses referred to as unexposed types, basically not enough is known about them.

The basic principle to handicapping is weight, with the better horses carrying more. It is similar to the handicap system in golf where the better player receives less strokes therefore enabling players with lesser ability to compete. If you play golf I am sure you come across a bandit and this would be the same as a "plot horse" in racing. I do not want to suggest that racing is full of crooks, yes, there are strange activities but they are not as prevalent as some people would have you believe.

So by definition in a handicap all horses will be allocated weight according to their ability. In theory, this should mean they all cross the winning line at the same time; not something you are going to see any time soon! Despite this supposed anomaly the races are competitive because there can be very little between the abilities of the horses assuming the handicapper has done his job. You will often hear trainers or owners complaining about the increased handicap mark claiming it is too severe. The horse runs again and wins thus proving the handicapper was correct. Of course he gets it wrong but he gets it right more often.

So if you see handicap in the title of the race then it is going to be a competitive affair 90% of the time. I don't have any strict statistics on that I am just giving a generalisation. If the race is competitive prices will reflect this. From a trading perspective it should mean a fairly stable market. You will note I said should mean a stable market! Yes, there will be movement but it should not be a severe as that in a novice hurdle or National Hunt flat race. So why is it more stable? Quite simply there is plenty of choice for the punter assuming of course there is no short priced favourite in the handicap. This occurs when you find a supposed "plot horse" running in a handicap. It could be the horse won easily last time out or is running in a handicap for the first time and the general betting public believe it has a lenient handicap mark.

When you trade handicap races you will get moves in excess of 5-6 ticks but they are less likely to jump this number of ticks in one hit. Yes, I know many of you will be saying that you've been caught this way but long-term you will break even as the crazy move works for you and against you over time. When trading a handicap race you will see a more discernible movement and sometimes it will only be 2-3 ticks. Take a look at the handicaps today and make a note of how they move compared with a novice or maiden race. Also look at seller races and claiming races and note the difference between them and handicaps. I will cover sellers and claimers in a separate article. I will also expand slightly on the handicap system in a separate article. Because we are many traders I am not going to go into great depth, I will just cover what I feel is pertinent.