First 6 months trading update

[arbtim]

Well it's 6 months since I went on Peters' course and I thought some would appreciate an update and I would appreciate any input others have.
Summarising my background I have been a sports arbitrage trader full time for 10 years but I foresaw a downturn in arbitrage this year which has been proved true which is why I initially did the course.Further to this the change in tax laws has basically killed arbitrage for full timers making a good living.
My initial trading was the horses which took some time to get my head around but within a couple of months I could make a reasonable return on a days card.However my attempts to scale up my profits proved futile and for me it took up too much of my time for too little return.
I also found losing trades for no apparent logical reason hard to stomach,for these reasons I have put racing on the backburner for the time being.
I will admit to knowing next to nothing about horse racing and presumed form(which I did study)was largely irrelevant to most close to post price movements.
I have a feeling my lack of knowledge is prescient,quite possibly my knowledge of market movements is not deep enough.Racing is not a sport I have ever arbed so I have no real background in it.
My advice regarding racing is to set stop losses as these can run wild if you don't and never ever ever go in play unless that is your strategy as it's the road to ruin,been there done that.
This is in stark contrast to soccer which has been very profitable for me,I don't like soccer as a sport but have placed thousands of soccer bets over the last few years and have a great knowledge of odds,form and value.
My basic strategy is dutching in play based on what I think is value and current and previous form,this has been very profitable and my strike rate is very good.
Infrequently I will dutch pre KO but this is not as profitable,whilst form is relevant what really matters is the match not what's happened before.
I always dutch regardless but load certain results and trade as the unloaded price moves.
Whilst it's contra to what I have been taught should a trade go badly wrong I will equal my losses and move on most of the time unless the upside is good.This has proved a net winner for me as opposed to simply walking away from losing trades.
I have traded other sports but the only other to any great extent is tennis which I am interested in and do like as well as having an in depth knowledge of the sport.
Occasionally when I was an arbitrageur I would have an in play bet on tennis which immediately always seemed to go wrong and which I would trade out of for a loss.
This carried on when I started trading and then I had a lightbulb moment when I realised(obviously as it seems)that what I was doing was betting on the result and not what was happening in the match.If I had bet on the result then I would probably have had a positive result but I didn't.
I doubt any sport has quite the momentum changes as tennis and neither do they have points in a match that have such high/low upsides.This is what I have concentrated on and this shows a good return,I will take a position pre match if I think a price is wrong but without a very good knowledge of tennis I would steer clear of that.
If you are trading tennis you are trading at a point in the match not the match 2 very different things.
It's been a whole new world for me diametrically opposed to my previous betting and if I can do it I'm sure others can.I know I have some advantages from arbitrage and my maths background but I am very risk averse or used to be anyway.
For those struggling I would recommend play trading until you have a positive strategy I've found confidence is paramount as it takes away the emotion which should never come into the equation.If you are using real money that pressure will always be there without confidence in your trading.
There is a very good book by Mathew Syed "Bounce" based on the requisite of 10000 hours practice to be world class at sports.
I believe with my previous knowledge of certain sports and betting that number is nearer 200 hours but with racing I always kept 10000 in my mind and I think it's not far off.
It's unrealistic to take up trading without putting the learning hours in I don't think there are short cuts as with most things in life.
From my point of view I put the arbitrage to bed 2 months ago and am returning 70% of my previous profits which I think is good.I actually have more free time now and am considerably less stressed,arbitrage is relentless trading much less so.
Hopefully that is of some benefit to some I would appreciate any feedback.

Tim

[fuzzer54]

Change in tax laws?

[oscar123]

I think he means the point of consumption tax forcing firms like Pinnacle and SBOBet to withdraw from the uk. I think these firms were popular with arbers.

[fuzzer54]

Ah right. Thanks Oscar.

[arbtim]

Oscar is correct,155 views and nobody has an opinion?

[steven1976]

Id say keep doing what you are doing if you are at a level that is profitable for you to make a good living.

I believe a lot of people probably get pulled into horse trading because of what is written on the web and the blogs and forums that tend to concentrate on pre-off horses. I have friends who make good money on football but always lose on horses so don't feel that you are missing out on anything and concentrate on the areas that you are doing well.

[oscar123]

Not sure what kind of feedback you're after, you seem to be giving advice rather than asking for it.

Sounds like you're working hard and making money, just keep doing that!

[marko236]

You say that your returning 70% of previous profits for less time trading.

Sounds good to me?

[Dark Horse]

Tim,

Really interesting I appreciate you taking the time to provide feedback on your post course progress. I have been toying with going on the course but I am still(at the moment) fully engaged in work so my dabblings with the market are only spare time efforts. I concur with your feelings about aribitrage - things can only get worse as technology becomes more sophistcated and speed of automated trading increases (I am not yet trading using any automation as I don't have the skills). My focus is UK/Ireland horse racing and UK football (mainly Prem). I tend to take a back/lay hi/lo option on a HR market that looks promising and then either green up before the off or let it run in play and look for a two way favourable shift in the price. It has been pretty succesful with medium range stakes so far (£100 - £200) and I am in profit. Scaling up might be an issue though due to liquidity and fast price fluctuations which sometimes leave me marooned in an exposed position and gnawing nails until the tape! Interested in your approach to footie - mine has been pretty simple so far - pick the games that I think will be low scoring and back 0-0 at the best price. Cash out after a max of 30 mins and then back whowever looks like the stronger team. I tried dutching but got caught a few times, sounds like I need to do some more work!

Dark Horse

[Dark Horse]

Oh one other thing - every time I have taken a massive kick up the arse it has been because I a)have not stuck to my plan and been disciplined or b) thought I was billy big bollocks on the back of a win streak and loaded up. Doh!

[arbtim]

Oh one other thing - every time I have taken a massive kick up the arse it has been because I a)have not stuck to my plan and been disciplined or b) thought I was billy big bollocks on the back of a win streak and loaded up. Doh!

Same for me everytime I deviate from what works I have come unstuck however I suppose you have to try new ideas,slowly scaling up works best for me.
The course is very horse racing centered which is fair enough in the limited time it's not for me at the moment though.