Two-horse race?
UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread
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jamesedwards
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sionascaig
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Fairly consistent recent polls !
(and a lot of "within margin of error" differentials going on....)
(and a lot of "within margin of error" differentials going on....)
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sionascaig
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From the Hamilton by-election (scottish parliament)
Reform in polls c20%, but secure c26% on the night.
Starting to wonder if (like the conservative "polled" vote shares) the pollsters underestimate support.
(and, without wanting to get political, Reform have not had a good campaign - not even a scottish leader or scottish policies!)
Reform in polls c20%, but secure c26% on the night.
Starting to wonder if (like the conservative "polled" vote shares) the pollsters underestimate support.
(and, without wanting to get political, Reform have not had a good campaign - not even a scottish leader or scottish policies!)
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You're right, no question
The media in general are completely out of touch with people. They underestimate how many are disillusioned and angry and want something different. The media insist on referring to Reform and their supporters as far-right, which shows how far down their own rabbit-hole they are
The media in general are completely out of touch with people. They underestimate how many are disillusioned and angry and want something different. The media insist on referring to Reform and their supporters as far-right, which shows how far down their own rabbit-hole they are
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sionascaig
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LeTiss wrote: ↑Fri Jun 06, 2025 8:38 amYou're right, no question
The media in general are completely out of touch with people. They underestimate how many are disillusioned and angry and want something different. The media insist on referring to Reform and their supporters as far-right, which shows how far down their own rabbit-hole they are
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sionascaig
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From a Highland council by-election (this week) with a 40% turnout...
Would not have bothered posting this but for the staggeringly low labour & conservative vote count.
Clearly a bit of "I can't be bothered voting" in these numbers but still - jings !
Would not have bothered posting this but for the staggeringly low labour & conservative vote count.
Clearly a bit of "I can't be bothered voting" in these numbers but still - jings !
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sionascaig
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What could happen if there was an election tomorrow...
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html
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sionascaig
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Quite a discrepancy between the markets and latest projections...
Reform currently 2.28 for most seats..
Can only assume the market expects a Reform implosion at some point - or its sound asleep!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html
Reform currently 2.28 for most seats..
Can only assume the market expects a Reform implosion at some point - or its sound asleep!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html
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jamesedwards
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The actual General Election performance of emerging "fringe" parties (not Con or Lab) has historically ended up way below mid-term polling.sionascaig wrote: ↑Mon Aug 25, 2025 9:56 amQuite a discrepancy between the markets and latest projections...
Screenshot 2025-08-25 095115.png
Reform currently 2.28 for most seats..
Can only assume the market expects a Reform implosion at some point - or its sound asleep!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html
In 1982 the SDP/Liberal Alliance Party went as low as 11/10 fav to win the next General Election after smashing byelections and leading opinion polls. They ended up with only 23 seats. One feels that this is different, but that's probably what people said in 1982.
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sionascaig
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Thanks James. That's a new one on me & could be part of the reason.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Mon Aug 25, 2025 2:43 pm
The actual General Election performance of emerging "fringe" parties (not Con or Lab) has historically ended up way below mid-term polling.
In 1982 the SDP/Liberal Alliance Party went as low as 11/10 fav to win the next General Election after smashing byelections and leading opinion polls. They ended up with only 23 seats. One feels that this is different, but that's probably what people said in 1982.
Managed to refrain from jumping in )
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firlandsfarm
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I think the position with the two major parties is somewhat different to 1982. The Conservatives don't seem to be able to regroup after 2024 and I doubt the public will have forgotten/forgiven them by then and Liebour just keep digging! They remind me of a passing comment I heard my father make in the 1960's when on watching the news one night he said "I don't think Labour want to win this election" (and he meant it) and when you look at their performance so far I can't see anything they have done since being in power that will help them win the next election (that is not a political statement, it's my reading of what I see).