I don't go mad but I find it adds a bit of variety to the day. As I said, you cannot keep doing it and need to select the correct "type" of race and know what to look for. Heck I've spent over 40 years watching racing so if I can't spot them now then I guess I never will!
And you spot them in great style. It's always a pleasure reading your posts and I always learn something new when doing it. Thank you again
I would say that IF one is going to tinker with alternative strategies, there is indeed a slight advantage to doing so in markets where you’ve already booked a profit – due to the Betfair commission amount.
Let’s assume a commission rate of 5%, a pre-existing trading profit of £10, and £1 being risked on the “alternative” strategy. If the “alternative” bet ends up being a losing bet, then if the bets were placed in separate markets, then the net profit would be £8.50 [ (£10 * 95%) - £1 ].
Whereas if they had been placed within the same market, the net profit would be £8.55 [ (£10 - £1) * 95% ]. It’s not necessarily a big difference, but for example if this illustration it amounts to a 10% reduction in commission paid (45p rather than 50p).
Therefore, if the alternative strategy ends up being a successful strategy in the long run, it makes just as much profit either way, but if it ends up being an unprofitable strategy in the long run, at least it ends up off-setting some commission expense. Then again, I suppose if you’re subject to the premium charge, it just means you’ll end up paying the difference with a higher premium charge instead. But, not everyone's strategy is necessarily subject to the premium charge...
if you've got a head-to-head between a top jockey and an obscure jockey, more often than not the top jockey will win. Presumably, this is because he's judged the speed better and made sure the horse has enough juice left in the engine to take the race.
From my understanding, the better jockeys also on average get priority access to the better horses, so I would also guess that the better jockey is also more likely to simply be on the better horse of the two.
On the topic of in-play trading, one thing I've noticed is that, if you've got a head-to-head between a top jockey and an obscure jockey, more often than not the top jockey will win. Presumably, this is because he's judged the speed better and made sure the horse has enough juice left in the engine to take the race.
If you have an unknown jockey whose horse is at (say) 1.4 and he's against AP McCoy, whose horse is at 2.5, would you normally lay the unknown jockey's horse, or is the edge not strong enough?
Thanks
Jeff
Hi all,
There was some analysis done on Jockeys in tight finishes but it's a few years old now as you can tell by some of the names of the jockeys.
Jockeys in tight finishes (A/W)
The data is derived from the past 10 seasons and shows the ratio of number of wins to number of losses in races where the winning margin was a neck or less. Table ranked by ratio where the 'best jockey' for a tight finish is at the top.
Jockey, Wins, Loses, Ratio
--------------------------------
L Dettori, 22, 10, 2.20
R Fitzpatrick, 42, 26, 1.62
Darren Williams, 28, 18, 1.56
J Mackay, 19, 13, 1.46
O Urbina, 23, 16, 1.44
K Fallon, 28, 20, 1.40
Paul Eddery, 21, 16, 1.31
T Eaves, 17, 13, 1.31
P Doe, 30, 23, 1.30
T G McLaughlin, 22, 17, 1.29
J-P Guillambert, 39, 31, 1.26
R L Moore, 23, 19, 1.21
P Hanagan, 30, 25, 1.20
S W Kelly, 43, 36, 1.19
S Sanders, 46, 39, 1.18
Dane O'Neill, 66, 58, 1.14
N Callan, 100, 89, 1.12
A Culhane, 66, 60, 1.10
J Quinn, 87, 80, 1.09
E Ahern, 81, 75, 1.08
C Catlin, 60, 56, 1.07
Martin Dwyer, 58, 54, 1.07
M Hills, 17, 16, 1.06
A Kirby, 21, 20, 1.05
A Clark, 21, 21, 1.00
G Duffield, 15, 15, 1.00
J Doyle, 18, 18, 1.00
F Norton, 42, 43, 0.98
D Sweeney, 39, 41, 0.95
L Keniry, 21, 23, 0.91
B Doyle, 19, 21, 0.90
Dale Gibson, 19, 21, 0.90
I Mongan, 57, 64, 0.89
A McCarthy, 22, 25, 0.88
D Holland, 38, 43, 0.88
R Winston, 39, 45, 0.87
S Drowne, 47, 54, 0.87
Hayley Turner, 19, 23, 0.83
T P Queally, 15, 18, 0.83
J P Spencer, 42, 51, 0.82
M Fenton, 49, 60, 0.82
G Baker, 42, 52, 0.81
Dean McKeown, 32, 40, 0.80
S Whitworth, 30, 39, 0.77
A Quinn, 15, 20, 0.75
J Fanning, 38, 51, 0.75
R Hughes, 23, 32, 0.72
J Fortune, 22, 31, 0.71
G Gibbons, 26, 37, 0.70
M Tebbutt, 14, 20, 0.70
T Quinn, 23, 34, 0.68
J F Egan, 34, 52, 0.65
R Havlin, 17, 26, 0.65
P Mathers, 12, 19, 0.63
F Lynch, 16, 27, 0.59
S Carson, 11, 28, 0.39
Here are the stats for turf.Think this was from 2007
Jockeys in tight finishes (TURF)
The data is derived from the past 10 seasons and shows the ratio of number of wins to number of losses in races where the winning margin was a neck or less. Table ranked by ratio where the 'best jockey' for a tight finish is at the top.
Jockey, Wins, Loses, Ratio
--------------------------------
F P Ferris, 37, 16, 2.31
K McEvoy, 70, 38, 1.84
D Nolan, 21, 12, 1.75
J Mackay, 48, 29, 1.66
G Hind, 31, 21, 1.48
T P Queally, 43, 29, 1.48
P Mulrennan, 35, 24, 1.46
M J Kinane, 48, 33, 1.45
R Kingscote, 20, 14, 1.43
R Fitzpatrick, 25, 18, 1.39
M Tebbutt, 42, 32, 1.31
P Fitzsimons, 31, 24, 1.29
J P Spencer, 166, 135, 1.23
Craig Williams, 18, 15, 1.20
P M Quinn, 18, 15, 1.20
P Fessey, 44, 37, 1.19
A Kirby, 20, 17, 1.18
J Tate, 21, 18, 1.17
P Makin, 38, 33, 1.15
B Doyle, 25, 22, 1.14
D Harrison, 16, 14, 1.14
Darren Williams, 33, 29, 1.14
S W Kelly, 48, 42, 1.14
S Whitworth, 49, 43, 1.14
G Duffield, 87, 77, 1.13
J F McDonald, 26, 23, 1.13
K Fallon, 258, 232, 1.11
P Dobbs, 41, 37, 1.11
P Robinson, 127, 114, 1.11
A Nicholls, 74, 67, 1.10
Jim Crowley, 16, 15, 1.07
Pat Eddery, 139, 131, 1.06
G Carter, 58, 55, 1.05
L Charnock, 23, 22, 1.05
M Roberts, 43, 41, 1.05
Dane O'Neill, 131, 126, 1.04
J Murtagh, 49, 47, 1.04
M Henry, 25, 24, 1.04
R Hughes, 222, 214, 1.04
L Keniry, 33, 32, 1.03
P Hanagan, 109, 108, 1.01
C Lowther, 25, 25, 1.00
G Parkin, 19, 19, 1.00
J-P Guillambert, 17, 17, 1.00
Paul Eddery, 31, 31, 1.00
S J Donohoe, 21, 21, 1.00
Saleem Golam, 22, 22, 1.00
T Quinn, 191, 191, 1.00
G Gibbons, 48, 49, 0.98
J Fanning, 91, 93, 0.98
D Holland, 187, 193, 0.97
A McCarthy, 22, 23, 0.96
D Tudhope, 22, 23, 0.96
R Cochrane, 48, 50, 0.96
E Ahern, 95, 100, 0.95
L Dettori, 194, 204, 0.95
M Fenton, 95, 100, 0.95
K Darley, 223, 236, 0.94
Lisa Jones, 16, 17, 0.94
N Callan, 91, 97, 0.94
J Reid, 56, 60, 0.93
D Allan, 55, 60, 0.92
Hayley Turner, 32, 35, 0.91
Kim Tinkler, 29, 32, 0.91
R Hills, 138, 151, 0.91
C Catlin, 78, 87, 0.90
F Norton, 104, 115, 0.90
K Dalgleish, 45, 50, 0.90
T Hamilton, 40, 45, 0.89
F Lynch, 69, 78, 0.88
G Baker, 45, 51, 0.88
N Pollard, 36, 41, 0.88
S Hitchcott, 30, 34, 0.88
R Ffrench, 84, 98, 0.86
R Mullen, 63, 73, 0.86
A Munro, 23, 27, 0.85
D Kinsella, 22, 26, 0.85
D Sweeney, 55, 65, 0.85
Martin Dwyer, 122, 144, 0.85
Dale Gibson, 54, 64, 0.84
J Fortune, 150, 179, 0.84
L Newman, 16, 19, 0.84
R Winston, 128, 153, 0.84
D Corby, 15, 18, 0.83
M Hills, 123, 149, 0.83
S Sanders, 175, 211, 0.83
Liam Jones, 14, 17, 0.82
T Sprake, 31, 38, 0.82
Greg Fairley, 17, 21, 0.81
J Carroll, 66, 81, 0.81
N Mackay, 40, 50, 0.80
J F Egan, 101, 128, 0.79
S Drowne, 123, 155, 0.79
A Daly, 21, 27, 0.78
O Urbina, 40, 51, 0.78
P Doe, 42, 54, 0.78
R Havlin, 31, 40, 0.78
A Clark, 24, 31, 0.77
D O'Donohoe, 17, 22, 0.77
T Eaves, 46, 60, 0.77
P Cosgrave, 13, 17, 0.76
A Culhane, 112, 149, 0.75
R L Moore, 116, 154, 0.75
T E Durcan, 79, 106, 0.75
W Supple, 83, 111, 0.75
O Pears, 14, 19, 0.74
N Chalmers, 13, 18, 0.72
A Beech, 20, 28, 0.71
D Mernagh, 30, 42, 0.71
I Mongan, 47, 66, 0.71
Dean McKeown, 58, 84, 0.69
J Quinn, 75, 109, 0.69
W Ryan, 41, 59, 0.69
J Doyle, 17, 25, 0.68
S Carson, 36, 53, 0.68
T Williams, 21, 32, 0.66
C Rutter, 21, 33, 0.64
J Bramhill, 11, 19, 0.58
R Smith, 14, 24, 0.58
L Enstone, 15, 28, 0.54
J Weaver, 28, 53, 0.53
R Miles, 13, 26, 0.50
Alex Greaves, 13, 33, 0.39
D McGaffin, 9, 26, 0.35
But, not everyone's strategy is necessarily subject to the premium charge...