Horse racing turnover YoY

[Bet Angel]

Could it be that everyone has wised up and realized that Adam and Peter are too good?

[Bet Angel]

Peter is there any chance of using your stats to show where the decline is happening i.e is it across the markets or on the fav, 2nd fav, 3rd fav.

We can cut the data in a number of ways but it can take a lot of time to match like for like markets. For example something that started at 1.40 in the same race last year that goes off at 4.00 this year, will have significantly different volume characteristics. We can adjust for this, as we do on a regular basis, but I think the general drop of volume has made this adjustment an irrelevance in this case, its just clearly down even when making a proportional adjustment.

We can have a quick stab at the front / back of the field question. Some of this is subject to the price and movement of the favourite which would affect the fill rate at the back of the book, but looking at it from a broad measure the amount of money matched on the favourite as a proportion of total matched bet volume is falling slightly. See graphic. This graph is volume adjusted to make it consistant on a like for like basis.

100519 - % Vol favourite.png

[LeTiss]

I'm intrigued as to why Horse Racing appears to be struggling & not other sports

Once again, a whopping £3 Million matched on Dementieva's match on Eurosport today

The French Open starts on Sunday, I would be interested to hear if BA has figures for total matched on last years tournament?

[Iron]

Indeed.

It could be the recession, but that seems unlikely, given that the public seem to think that things are beginning to pick up (given the rise in house prices, for example).

Jeff

I'm intrigued as to why Horse Racing appears to be struggling & not other sports

Once again, a whopping £3 Million matched on Dementieva's match on Eurosport today

The French Open starts on Sunday, I would be interested to hear if BA has figures for total matched on last years tournament?

[andyfuller]

I'm intrigued as to why Horse Racing appears to be struggling & not other sports

I think that the market manipulation that seems to be at an all time high could be part of the problem and is turning people away from the pre race markets. I suspect the bigger traders are using this technique more and more in order to maintain their profits and grow them.

When you watch the pre race markets you can see manipulation all over the place and I would/do see that as a big turn off. It is clearly working for the manipulators but I think they are killing off the markets to a degree.

Where as you don't get manipulation like you see in the pre race markets in say a tennis match as the event itself affects the odds, likewise football where as pre race nothing material has changed and it is just opinion and as such it can be manipulated quite easily.

I feel that the amounts being bet inrunning on horses have not fallen though that is only my view, but raises more questions about the falls pre race.

If I were starting out I think I would spend my time learning markets other than horse racing, I think there are now much better opportunities around away from the horses.

It is definitely something I am going to be spending more time on as I don't see things getting better on the horses long term, Tennis, American Football and Cricket are the sports I am going to be spending more time on after the summer.

However, most new traders I think look at the horses first as they are the markets you hear about most and see people trading. Look how little chat there has been about the T20 on here and else where but look at how much is traded on each match. Likewise with the tennis. There is big money to be made outside of horse racing but it just doesn't get the same coverage. Which makes you wonder more about the decline on the horses given that those markets get the most air time.

[Lambretta]

Interesting thread this. I started trading full time last summer and retired from trading nags at the beginning of this year. I had a few reasons for doing so but one of the major contributing factors was my belief that the markets were/would cannibalise themselves with over manipulation, something a few people have eluded to here. Perhaps I'm not the only deserter.
I haven't looked into it but I'd be surprised if the amount of money moving around the football markets hadn't increased YoY. There certainly seems to have been an increase in the amounts traded on this seasons play offs.

[to75ne]

Look how little chat there has been about the T20 on here and else where but look at how much is traded on each match. Likewise with the tennis. There is big money to be made outside of horse racing but it just doesn't get the same coverage. Which makes you wonder more about the decline on the horses given that those markets get the most air time.

i wonder why there is so little chat about other traded sports, considering the money that is traded.

is sports trading that easy that most people who take it up master it so easy that they dont get in the mess that new pre race traders do and hence, dont require advice etc?

[sweetybt]

Are there figures for IP against pre-race?

Do we have stas for BetDaq?

I personally find pre-race trading much worse than 18 months ago but in-running is still ok.

I also find the Aus markets very good as well. I now regulalrly do 2 hours between 7 and 9 on a Saturday morning.

[burnpark]

Look how little chat there has been about the T20 on here and else where but look at how much is traded on each match. Likewise with the tennis. There is big money to be made outside of horse racing but it just doesn't get the same coverage. Which makes you wonder more about the decline on the horses given that those markets get the most air time.

i wonder why there is so little chat about other traded sports, considering the money that is traded.

is sports trading that easy that most people who take it up master it so easy that they dont get in the mess that new pre race traders do and hence, dont require advice etc?

Good point. I struggle to trade before the off on horse racing although for the long distance race for the first 10-15 seconds you can click on Make Market and normally get matched on both sides for a small profit as the market settles in the early stages.

[LeTiss]

I started trading full time last summer and retired from trading nags at the beginning of this year. I had a few reasons for doing so but one of the major contributing factors was my belief that the markets were/would cannibalise themselves with over manipulation, something a few people have eluded to here.

I completely agree

I sometimes wonder if Betfair's Premium Charge wasn't all about the money. Perhaps they felt the markets were being ruined by big traders and this was one way to reign them in

I also agree with Andy with regards to sport betting. There's so many complicated and involved factors which determine Horse Racing prices. These prices can therefore fluctuate quickly & significantly. With sport betting the prices are more solid because the prices are pure opinions based on formguide & what the match means to each team or competitor. As a result of this, it's easier to push big money through without getting hit by ridiculous spikes.

If Andy is right and there's little activity on horses who are 4th favourite & below, this shows the traders are possibly outweighing punters now. This could explain why the turonver figures are struggling, I think there's growing number of traders like Lambretta & me who have deserted Horse Racing trading & gone to Sports instead

[maneman]

An interesting thread with some valid opinions.
I primarily trade sports mainly tennis, snooker and sometimes golf when I get involved with these markets.
Forex is also an interest of mine despite it's gross differences to sports.
However, my major interest and love has always been horse racing and I trade less and less because of market over manipulation which is often so blatantly obvious. Hence I tend to lay horses and make far more as a result as often I can take advantage of the manipulation by traders. This I know will be viewed as high risk by you dyed in the wool trader purists but it's all down to strategy, method and psychology coupled with effective money management and this applies across the board.
I would be much happier to see less trader manipulation of the horse racing markets as it has become a more negatively viewed aspect to the exchanges. So as volume decreases this may have the effect of removing the big players who are responsible for the gross manipulation and possibly we could reach a more realistic reflection of what are quite complex markets, in comparison to other sports markets. Despite this the high rollers will always gravitate to the biggest volume markets because liquidity is vitally important to them.
Everyone who first starts out into trading are encouraged to begin with horse racing as a general rule and in my view they are being encouraged to start in what has become the most difficult markets of all to trade. This I feel has been reflected in some earlier posts.
Essentially, it's all about making money irrespective of markets, trade, lay or back and we all have to be able to adjust our methods and strategies to cope with any changes with a view to what one is comfortable with.
M

[CaerMyrddin]

Just my five cents:

UK horse racing markets are really puzzling to me, I don't have a notion of value and not having live pictures can't help either. Nevertheless I believe there are way too many strange moves to let me trade on my confort zone. I trade these markets occasionally, altough I have I look at them almost everyday and gather data everyday.

I joined the list of those who started trading other markets

[enzabella2009]

With sport betting the prices are more solid because the prices are pure opinions based on formguide & what the match means to each team or competitor

..
on sport events the statistics generate the starting odds, other factors determinate the build up of the match or games a 0.01% to 5% variant of the odds..IF XXX won 72% of the home games over 100 times against team or player YYY that had half of the home team points the home team odds will be calculated to 0.72.
the home team odds will be 1.39 to win. The boomakers may offer 1.25 1.3..on betfair you may find 1.39 to 1.43..I have tryed to do the same calculation over horses...I got the right odds only from the night before the race until 2 hours before the race..
I many occasions I have noticed 35K come in 2 hours before the race to manipulate the odds in the opposite direction..In many occasions (the real) favorite horse were pushed out the favorite 1st podium to become 2-3-4th favorite..7 out 10 the real favorite won the race......I am still working on it to understand better the horses markets but as soon the new football season will start I will drop my case.....good luck..

[Iron]

Enzabella -

I agree.

You often see a low priced-favourite drift like a bargepole, only to win the race, so a good strategy might be to back such horses.

Jeff

In many occasions (the real) favorite horse were pushed out the favorite 1st podium to become 2-3-4th favorite..7 out 10 the real favorite won the race......I am still working on it to understand better the horses markets but as soon the new football season will start I will drop my case.....good luck..

[mikesalter]

On the thread of moving to sports betting from horses I must admit I find tennis more predictable than horses. As a learner on £5 trades I am looking for the thing that gives me an edge and find in play trading on tennis interesting if a little moving towards outright gambling. After 4 matches with good profit I optimistically went for li vs Dulgheru. Li was the clear favourite but showed to be in poor form early on. I traded out for a horrible loss of £2.40 rejecting the chance to trade out at 30p or so (poor judgement). I then traded a 91p profit on Dulgheru because she was coming in when Li was going out. I then traded a resurgance by Li and brought her back to 24p in profit by catching her good moments and avoiding her bad. The moral here is that with patience you can do well on inplay trading even as a relative amateur, I assume as i learn to Identify the poor form of an individual this can only get better. The biggest problem is coping with the 5 sec delay. Does anyone know why some people seem to be able to react instantly or is it to do with the delay on satelite TV delivery,is it better to listen to a live feed on the radio?