Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day

[SeaHorseRacing]

Nice if you caught it early enough

Would have been. There was only 50k matched when it was around 4s...

[Dancho032]

Hi all ,im new to horse trading and i would like to ask how can you understand by the charts which way the market will go ?
thanks guys !

[cyxstudio]

[ajdal]

It is with increasing amusement that I view Betfair charts nowadays. It seems a lot of the market has no idea what is value.

I ask this question with the greatest respect... but I'm very curious... I've noticed you've mentioned in previous threads that you don't follow form and don't pay attention to Bookmaker prices... so if I may be a bit impertinent (without meaning to be)... How do you value value ??

[Euler]

I trade order flow from a trading perspective.

From a value perspective: -

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/11 ... t-markets/

[ajdal]

I trade order flow from a trading perspective.

From a value perspective: -

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/11 ... t-markets/

That was a really great article to read, thank you so much for sharing it... but the confusion in my mind lies with, for example, you have a graph of a Maiden in the article who was trading steadily around the 2.8 (7/4) mark before the layers stepped in and pushed it out to about 4.2 (10/3 ish)... but how would someone conclude value had been reached unless you knew the motivation behind the push?... I've lost count of the number of times I have seen a price move in a Maiden in that fashion and just keep drifting, reaching absurd levels like 6 or 7 or even greater and never return... my understanding is that if you are following it out you are in effect Trend trading not value trading (in the traditional sense) ... personally if I saw the odds were still 2/1 with bookmakers I would conclude the 4.2 offered represented value from a betting perspective and I would probably take a position, but how would a newbie conclude that the price had reached a value price from a trading perspective just from reading the market?

I ask this question not so much for myself, but because I suspect it may well be a question that it is on a few of this forum's readers minds.... maybe.

[ShaunWhite]

how would a newbie conclude that the price had reached a value price from a trading perspective just from reading the market?

Many others are better qualified to answer this, but personally I don't try to make these calculations myself in realtime, I use the wisdom of crowds and their order flow on the selection and that on its significant opponents too. My entry and exit criterion are both very similar. You need to combine this with an understanding of the likely effect of support and resistance points. There's almost certainly many ways to approach this.

..just my take, i'm no guru.

[weemac]

Capture.JPG

[Naffman]

Just about to post that

Fundamentals well and truly out the window, and great to see the old timer General Tufto win

[weemac]

Same track, two races later. Thousands traded between 6.2 and 7.2 before the price ballooned upwards.

Traded down to 1.80 in running.

[ShaunWhite]

Just about to post that

Fundamentals well and truly out the window, and great to see the old timer General Tufto win

Just shows you how little money there is actually backing/laying value. I always thought the amount of 'pro' money being wagered on a midweek afternoon was over estimated. I'd be suprised if it averaged 50k.

[Euler]

Just about to post that

Fundamentals well and truly out the window, and great to see the old timer General Tufto win

Who says there is no value in the market!

[steven1976]

There was one that touched 350 immediately after the off earlier and came back into around 2s, if anyone was lucky enough to get a couple of quid. Not sure if it stumbled at the start but was pretty big odds for the market to offer for one of the favourites so quick. Can't remember which race

[ruthlessimon]

30 ticks in 30 seconds

[ruthlessimon]

bit of mountain sledging @ chelms